A Low is likely to form in the Eastern Bay, East of the Andaman Islands, by the 28th of November. Initially, on 29th, it will strengthen a bit, and move Westwards, and cover the Bay Islands.
I see some hindrance in the further westward track. As of today, the SST around the Islands is 30-31c. The SST progressively decreases as we move west. And, the SST, as we reach the Southern India coast is 28c and around 27c in the NE Indian coastline. That, would deter the further westwards track of the system beyond 93E.
In fact, there is a 40% chance, that the system could even move Northwards along the Myanamar coast.
Let me stress, that is the synoptic situation today, and my track estimate is based on this scenario.
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