The storm watch in the Arabian Sea has at least two global models still subscribing to — the statistical Roundy-Albany and the numerical Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (Nogaps), both from the US.
This (Saturday) morning’s update by
India Meteorological Department (IMD), however, did not say anything about a likely low-pressure area brewing, something it had mentioned only in the previous evening.
Both the US models saw the weather system moving north close to the west coast. What is widely considered is the causative upper air cyclonic circulation hung just a bit out into the east-central Arabian Sea this morning, an IMD update said.
Meanwhile, the northern limit of monsoon continued to pass through Vengurla, Belgaum, Gadag, Anantapur and Nellore.
The IMD said that conditions are favourable for further advance of the monsoon over more parts of Arabian Sea, Andhra Pradesh and Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of Karnataka and some parts of south Maharashtra and the Northeastern States until Monday.
Satellite picture early on Saturday morning showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over east Arabian Sea, west Assam, east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. The offshore trough extends from Konkan to Kerala coast.
A weather warning said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at a few places over Goa and coastal Karnataka and isolated heavy to very heavy over Konkan, south Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala until Monday.
A short-term forecast until Tuesday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would break out along the west coast, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has been forecast over interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada and scattered over rest of peninsular India.
An extended forecast valid until Thursday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would continue to batter the west coast.
Towards the east, an upper air cyclonic circulation is parked over north Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood. Satellite pictures showed the presence of convective clouds over west Assam.
A weather warning said that isolated thunder squalls would occur over Bihar,
West Bengal, Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa until Monday.
A short-term forecast valid until Tuesday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers may unfold over the Northeastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim and isolated over central and the rest of east India.
An extended forecast said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and adjoining east India until Thursday.
Mainly dry weather would is forecast to prevail over northwest India after the latest of the western disturbances signed off from the region just the other day.
