Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Monsoon Watch -8  (Periodical Progress and Current Status). ..see Vagaries

Why #chennai did not get the T.shower today ?? 
RT @chirag_roshan: @weatherofindia Currently It's Heavily Raining In Mehsana,North Gujarat From Last 30 Minutes ☺ time 8:45 pm !! 

Cloudless weather in Mumbai on 13 June

RT @rajugana:  Baroda 6.20pm, The first Pre-monsoon rain of the season, T.Storm with heavy downpour.. a pic

RT @rajugana:  Baroda 6.20pm, Heavy rain accompanied by thunder and wind. Cool n fresh, water water everywhere.. 
RT @rajugana: Baroda 3.50pm, After a hot & humid day, Development of T.Clouds from SW, Windy, rumbling of thunder,pic
This Is What It's Like In Sweltering Mumbai Right Before Monsoon Season Begins... 
#chennai - 1:18pm, good to see an early Sea breeze from East upto 0.3km. Now having Good cloud formations. A T.Shower in another 1 or 2 hrs!
@mobieng >> Monsoon for Bihar will be after 20-Jun.. not before that! We'll keep it updated.
As most of us are now wondering how and when the SWM is going to move ahead, and its future course, I thought it better to again Analise and prepare another another MW.
Vagaries will be publishing the next in the Monsoon Watch in the running series tonite.
We shall be discussing the behavior of the Monsoon this year, and how favourable/Unfavourable it has been vis-a-vis our forecasts. It is not new for the SWM to behave erratically, it just varies from our expectations.

eg: Vagaries had estimated a slow down in the progress after Moving into Mumbai on the 13th of June. SWM was forecasted to be stuck at 20N for some time after the progress into N.Konkan.

Reality: It is stuck at S.Konkan now.

These and the reasons will be discussed.

Draft is ready and final touches may take time, hence it will be published late tonite.
Lengthy reading is boring, so i will keep it short and details of meteorological explanations will be avoided.

Rainfall till 8:30am of 12-Jun... 

Low level circulation over E.Uttarpradesh and Bihar will persist till 17-Jun... after that it'll be pushed W-N-W.

Upper level circulation over W-Central Bay persists and it'll for another 24hrs.. ... 

The Heat LOW from N-W India to Bihar and Bengal is deepening by the day... By 16-Jun.. the LOW will extend and Drop into N.Bay.

RT @emkay456: @weatherofindia yeah that is why its blue skies all around Mumbai and sunny too ;) (11:52am)

RT @alex_pandian: Monsoon - where? there are no rains for last 2 weeks for #Bangalore >> Showers possible from Today evening till 18-Jun

Trough along Maharastra coast and Karnataka coast persists with a circulation near S-W Maharastra coast.. 

Strong Pre-monsoon showers forecast for W,N-W,N.Maharastra for next 24hrs... 

The present HEavy monsoon rains along Karnataka & Kerala coast will continue till 18-Jun and beyond.. 

The present W.D will clear off in another 24hrs.. and next weak W.D will set in around 17-Jun.

#Mumbai is expected to get Monsoon rains from 16/17-Jun.. 

Moisture from Fresh Monsoon push from Arabian sea is seen penetrating & covering almost full of S.Peninsula.

#chennai - from today to 18-Jun, we can expect T.showers after 4pm from W-S-W.. this'll happen only after the Sea breeze sets in at 3pm.

Viewing the Transit of Venus from Space

Observations of the Transit of Venus during the 17th, 18th, and 19th centuries allowed scientists to calculate the distance between the Earth and the Sun, while revealing the existence of an atmosphere around Venus. Since the previous pair of transits of Venus in 1874 and 1882, humans have developed the ability to view the phenomena from space—both directly from low-Earth orbit and remotely from sensors on spacecraft collecting data about the Sun.
Astronaut Don Pettit, flight engineer for International Space Station (ISS) Expedition 31, was particularly keen to take photos of the event from orbit—even bringing a solar camera filter aboard for the event. This top image, from the first half of the 2012 transit, is one of hundreds taken from the ISS Cupola, a windowed module that provides the crew with unparalleled views of both Earth and astronomical phenomena. In fact, history will record the ISS as the first orbital, crewed spacecraft from which the Transit of Venus has been observed. In addition to the dark circle of Venus visible at image upper left, several smaller sunspots are visible at image center.
The eight-image series (lower) comes from one of those solar-observing spacecraft: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory(SDO). The full-disk images were captured between 21:00 Universal Time on June 5 and 06:00 UTC on June 6 by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), an instrument designed to study the oscillations and magnetic field of the solar surface, or photosphere. As with Pettit’s photo, HMI reveals several sunspots near the middle of the Earth-facing side of the Sun, as well as the larger, transient disk of Venus in the upper third of the images. A movie showing the entire Transit is available for download by clicking on the link below the image or by visiting our YouTube channel. The SDO team also produced a montage of high-definition views of the Transit that you can see here.
The Transit of Venus in front of the Sun is one of only two such planetary crossings—the other being the Transit of Mercury—that are visible from Earth. While transits of Mercury occur thirteen times each century, Venus transits the Sun only twice over the same time period. (The first transit of the current pair occurred in 2004). Unless you are fortunate enough to be at locations where the transit is visible both times, this makes the Transit of Venus a true “once in a lifetime” event.
Astronaut photograph ISS031-E-89012 was acquired on June 6, 2012, with a Nikon D2Xs digital camera using an 800 mm lens, and is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations experiment and Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by the Expedition 31 crew. It has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. SDO animation by Robert Simmon, using data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Caption by William L. Stefanov, Jacobs/ESCG at NASA-JSC, and Mike Carlowicz, Earth Observatory.

Australian "Anti-storm"

High-pressure weather systems often bring fair weather and relatively clear skies. In early June 2012, a high off the coast of Tasmania did just that...and in spectacular fashion.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this view of a hole in a cloud formation at 3:00 p.m. local time (05:00 Universal Time) on June 5, 2012. The weather system over the Great Australian Bight cut out the oval-shaped hole from a blanket of marine stratocumulus clouds.
The cloud hole, with a diameter that stretched as far as 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) across, was caused by sinking air associated with an area of high pressure near the surface. Globally, the average sea-level pressure is about 1013 millibars; at the center of this high, pressures topped 1,040 millibars.
Sea-level pressure maps published by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on June 5 showed that the shape of the cloud hole matched the shape of the high-pressure area. However, the center of high pressure and the cloud hole didn't match precisely; the center of the high was near the western edge of the clear area, about 100 kilometers from the cloud edge.
In general, winds blow outward and away from areas of high pressure. As a result, areas of high pressure pull air downward. As the air sinks, it also warms, increasing the rate of evaporation and making it difficult for the air to sustain clouds. Areas of low pressure, by contrast, pull air upward and generate clouds and stormy weather.
While low-pressure systems often produce circular cyclonic storms and clouds, high-pressure systems (which are sometimes called anticyclones) can yield large circular areas of clear skies. “You could call it an anti-storm,” quippedNASA Langley atmospheric scientist Patrick Minnis.
According to NASA Goddard atmospheric scientists Joanna Joiner and Arlindo da Silva, weather models simulated the cloud formation quite accurately. “We checked the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast, and it really nailed the system,” Joiner said.

RT @westwindhomez: Rain....Rain..Monsoon At Kerala.......after a short starts...

RT @sidrah_mn: Raining in #Trivandrum. Don't want to get out of bed. (8:57am)

#chennai - 9:33am, it's 33.6°C and rising.. occasional strong breeze from S-W continues!