Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Europe to face record cold wave: Big Pattern Change in Summer Weather

Joe Bastardi, ex Accuweather tweets" Huge reversal next week to heat areas in Europe possible record cold, Germany into Russia, but prob east of UK http://pic.twitter.com/WxmivqcF.

UK Met Office goofs once again. Predict drought when floods

Instead of droughts as promised by the UK Met Office, Britain was plagued by the wettest April in 100 years! No surprise here as that’s so typical fate of all the Met Office’s predictions. 

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/05/uk-met-offices-continued-bloomers.html
S-W monsoon style showers for Andaman islands to continue for next 3 days.
4pm, T.cells seen over coastal Andhra, coastal Orissa, N,N-W,S-central Tamilnadu, S.Bengal,S. Bangladesh.. http://ow.ly/i/B8xs
The last stand of the present W.D over Kashmir will last for another 24hrs.. after that Next W.D is expected around 6-May
Isolated T.showers for N,N-E. Andhra and Orissa will continue till 7-May and beyond
Moisture push from Bay into S.Bengal, Bangladesh, N-E states to continue 5-May.. HEAVY t.showers forecast for this zone http://ow.ly/i/B8vs
After a day .. showers will start again over S.Kerala from 3-May
chennai - strong showers can be seen over S-W of city around 45km.. there is very LESS chance of it moving into city 4:44pm
Moisture over Tamilnadu is making an exit as the N-S trough is weakening.. total exit will happen around evening of 3-May
Today as well heavy moisture seen over S.central Tamilnadu, and moisture push continues into Bangladesh, N-E states.http://ow.ly/i/B8s2
Today COLD is still in place over N.Pakistan, Kashmir and into Afghanisthan .. http://ow.ly/i/B8s2
RT @rtkeralam: RT @jinuem: rain season kerala instaaddict instagramers iphonephotography jinuem thunder natur http://t.co/4tkX9Jrl

Monsoon Watch - 4 (Part 1).
Forecasting Methods adopted for the Indian Monsoons. Details of the forecast and this year's position of the SWM . Also the quantum forecast procedure. Details on Vagaries.

Nor'wester causes Assam boat mishap death toll may cross 200

Local authorities in western Assam's Dhubri town fear the death toll in Monday's boat mishap on river Brahmaputra may cross the 200 mark. The ill-fated double-decker boat had a carrying capacity of 250 passengers but reportedly had some 500 on board.

Taleb Ali, 42, who swam to safety and saved four others. said "There were at least 500 people on the boat, and I was lucky to have been on the upper deck. Most of the people were in the cage-like lower deck and I fear they were trapped. The death toll will cross 200," he said from Madhertari, nearest to the spot where the boat caught a cyclonic storm and "broke into three pieces".

"The mishap happened barely 50 metres from the bank, and local people beat the rescue teams to the bodies and took their kin's home possibly for the final rites." The boat had set sail from Dhubri town, 287km west of Guwahati on the northern bank of river Brahmaputra in the afternoon."It was heading southeast to Hatsinghimari, a three-hour trip".

Principal Secretary (Revenue and Disaster Management) V.K. Pipersenia, when contacted, said inland ferries in Assam were not equipped with any meteorological device and the entire system was old and traditional. “We will have to take up with the India Meteorological Department the matter of issuing advanced storm warnings on Norwesters to prevent such accidents.”

Eyewitnesses told police the vessel was old and broke in two after capsizing in the swollen river, one of Asia's largest.Hasnat Ali, a passenger, told local television that the boat was tossed about and many of those on the roof were thrown off and managed to swim to shore before the ferry was dashed to pieces.
I managed to cling to a log and was later rescued by local villagers, he said.


During the hot weather period i.e from March to May the eastern and North-eastern states of the subcontinent like West Bengal, Bihar, Assam, Orissa (parts) and Bangladesh experience dramatic appearance of a special type of violent thunderstorm know as Nor’wester.    

In the summer months the atmosphere becomes unstable due to intense insolation. On such days if there is a suitable synoptic situation such as a surface low pressure area over Jharkhand and adjoining districts of Gangetic West Bengal, the cyclonic vorticity reaching up to 1.5 kilometers above sea level with dry air aloft and presence of a jet stream between the levels 300 mb and 200 mb in the vicinity of Gangetic West Bengal are extremely helpful for the occurrence of nor’westers.. 

In Bengal it is known as ‘KalBaisakhi’ or calamity of the month of Baisakh (April,15-May,15). Apart from its destructive effects like sudden rise in wind speed, lightning, thunder  and hail the rainfall associated with the storm although small in amount, is extremely helpful for the pre-Kharif crops like jute, Aus paddy, summer till and a large number of vegetables and fruits and the sudden drop in temperature gives relief after unbearable mid-day heat.   

The dramatic appearance of nor’wester in the afternoon or evening of pre-monsoon months over Bengal, Bihar, Assam and adjoining areas has been a matter of great interest not only to the meteorologists but to all sections of people and has a bright existence in Bengali literature. Famous Bengali poet Mohit Lal Majumder described nor’wester so nicely in his poem “KalBaisakhi” that a meteorologist can hardly do. However, Nor’wester is subject of universal interest for a number of reasons. It not only gives relief after mid-day heat but pours well its crops. Its nature is unique and the causes are really interesting.

Tamil Nadu has got widespread rains  ending 8.30 am on 01.05.2012

Rainfall in mm

Kottampatti, Madurai – 53
Pykara, Nilgris - 46
Namakkal – 43
Sendurai,Ariyalur – 42
Veppanthattai, Perambalur – 41
Pennagaram,Karimangalam – 39
Attur, Dindugul – 26
Vadipatti, Madurai – 25
Veppur, Perambalur – 23
Ariyalur – 20
Annur, Coimbatore – 18
T.Palur, Ariyalur – 16
Karimangalam, Dharmapuri – 14
Kanai, Villipuram – 11
Virudunagar – 10
Sholayar, Coimbatore – 10
Sarcarsamakulam, Coimbatore – 10