Saturday, December 06, 2008

FNMOC GFS and BBC forecast

FNMOC GFS and BBC forecast is forecasting the same landfall area.

"07B" - Is it alive??

BBC rain forecast is still suggesting a landfall very near to south of Chennai by tomorrow.
Before going in-depth abt the system. Take a look at the latest satellite pic.

Going by visual, one can see a small core and nothing much. Lots of signs of weakening.
Still it's a well marked low pressure system.
JTWC - is still tracking the system and suggesting a landfall near north of Pamban coast.

*************************************
060300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 052355Z SSMIS MICRO-
WAVE IMAGE SHOW REENERGIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST OF A WELL-
DEFINED ALBEIT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH HAS BEGUN TO BUILD WESTWARD AND IS CAUSING TC 07B TO TRACK ON
A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ALLOW 07B TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTH-
ERN INDIA BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z
*************************************
Chennai:
Woke up to a mild morning will some useless low clouds moving in from North-east.
Till evening today(6-Dec-08) no rain is forecasted.
If "07B" maintains it's path and intensifies then we'll start receiving mild showers or drizzles from late evening.
There's only "50%" chance of Intensifying further and making a landfall.