Saturday, May 15, 2010

Indian Ocean - Lower Level IR - Latest Available - Large Scale

Indian Ocean - Lower Level IR - Latest Available - Large Scale
The weak cross equatorial flow is NOT touching Indian coasts except at Car Nicobar islands [south of Andaman]. The flow will induce circulation and formation of low in coming weeks is possible.

Wettest places in India ...

Wettest places in India

The fourteen rainfall stations (see Fig. 1) whose mean annual rainfall is 500 cm (i.e. 200 inches) or more.Among these fourteen stations, there are only two stations (viz. Cherrapunji and Mawsynram) whose mean annual rainfall is more than 1100 cm. These fourteen stations have been called the rainiest stations of this country.

1. Mawsynram – Meghalaya – 1141
2. Cherrapunji – Meghalaya – 1087
3. Agumbe – Karnataka – 828
4. Amboli – Maharashtra – 748
5. Mahabaleshwar – Maharashtra – 623
6. Gaganbawada – Maharastra – 621
7. Bhagamandala – Karnataka – 603
8. Pullingoth – Karnataka – 594
9. Neriamangalam – Kerala – 588
10.Buxa – West Bengal – 532
11.Denning – Tripura – 532
12.Matheran -Maharastra – 517
13.Peermade – Kerala – 517
14.Makut – Karnataka – 506

In addition to the heavy rainfall stations listed 7 other locations(with a minimum of 10 and up to 39 years' continuous records) were found to receive over 5000 mm of rain per year on an average. However the figures are not strictly comparable since they do not relate to identical observation periods; nevertheless, they indicate those areas in Peninsular India where rainfall of such quantity and intensity can be expected.
Posted by Pradeep
South-West Srilanka continues to get heavy showers ..
3:30pm, Still we have very less signs of thunder cells, potential zones are Orissa, Andhra, Karnataka, TN and Bihar..
On 13-May, " Pre-monsoon rains flood Sri Lanka capital" ...
2:30pm, very less signs of thunder cells today so far.
Many numeric models suggest a Bay storm will emerge before 25-May.

Monsoon may reach Andaman Sea next week

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) has predicted that the South-West monsoon may hit Sri Lanka around May 20, a week before schedule.

The US Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), too, shows southwest Sri Lanka being hit during the week ending May 21.

(Agencies quoting the Union Minister of State for Earth Sciences, Mr Prithiviraj Chavan, said monsoon will arrive on May 30.)


The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees low level winds gathering pace beyond May 22 to precipitate a likely onset over Kerala.

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University suggests that monsoon would hit the Andaman Islands, the first outpost in the Indian territorial waters, as early as May 17 (Monday). Wind speeds in the Andaman Sea are already in the 15 to 30 km/hr, according to the Thailand Met Department, but needs to steadily clock between 27 to 30 km/hr for onset to happen.


The NCEP has gone on to signal heavy precipitation over the Tamil Nadu coast and over the north-eastern States concurrently during May 21 to 28.

Meanwhile, the CPC points towards the possibility of enhanced convective phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave and numerical weather forecast guidance forcing tropical storm formation for the Arabian Sea during next week.

The CPC outlook also said that the active MJO phase would trigger enhanced rainfall for the eastern Indian Ocean and the maritime continent (Indonesia, et al) during this phase as well as the southern tip of Sri Lanka.

Interestingly, it sees possible tropical storm spinning up over the southwest Bay of Bengal thereafter.


This is exactly the scenario being envisioned by Prof Paul Roundy, a leading US-based ocean weather forecaster, to unfold around May 25.

Both systems would be oriented southwest to northeast, which means the Arabian Sea system would cross the west coast during the onset phase.

By the same token, the Bay of Bengal system would be guided north-northeast towards for a rendezvous with the West Bengal or adjoining Bangladesh coast.

Meanwhile, experts are of the view that the cross-equatorial monsoon current is building across the East Indian Ocean with clouds massing around.

Unlike in the Arabian Sea, this monsoon current needs to cover much lesser ground to precipitate the onset in the Bay of Bengal.

The Arabian Sea current has to travel along the Equator until the east African coast from where it makes a southwesterly turn to enter the far west Arabian Sea. From here, it has to travel quite some distance towards the Kerala coast.

Meanwhile, pre-monsoon activity was apace in the east and northeast even as a western disturbance is expected to trigger some activity over parts of northwest India.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that thunder squalls would occur at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, the north-eastern States, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa during the next two days.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rain or thundershowers would occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.

The causative trough from southwest Jharkhand to northeast Assam across Gangetic West Bengal, Bangladesh and Meghalaya persisted.

The main north-south trough tracked down from east Madhya Pradesh to south Tamil Nadu across Vidarbha, Marathwada and Karnataka.

The western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan featured an induced upper air cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan.

It is likely to affect the western Himalayan region during next two days. A fresh western disturbance is likely drift in Sunday.

Satellite imagery revealed presence of convective (rain-causing) clouds over parts of Arunachal Pradesh, south Arabian Sea, south Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) were seen over parts of western Himalayan region, east and peninsular India and remaining parts of the north-eastern States.
Temp. map of 14-may..
Ahmedabad sizzles in Guj, touches 45 degree celsius‎ ..
Rain map of 14-May,.. widespread over Orissa, N-E states and scattered over South peninsula..
Thundersqualls would occur over J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bengal & Sikkim, N-E States, Haryana, U.P and Orissa in next 48 hours
trough from southwest Jharkhand to northeast Assam across Gangetic West Bengal, Bangladesh and Meghalaya at 0.9 km above MSLP
Heat wave conditions are prevailing over Telangana, Vidarbha, north M.P, east U.P, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh.
On 14-May, highest maximum temperature of 47.1°C was recorded at Bramhapuri (Maharashtra)
1pm, Entire south Bay is getting active .. will it host a LOW system ??...
Monsoon to arrive on May 30: Govt
Live Cam on the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano ..
Live Cam on the Eyjafjallajökull:
"Universe Today" has put up a link to a live video feed of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. It comes in two flavors: regular (visible) and infrared, so you can see a thermal version of the feed. It's not an embeddable feed.Watch  it for awhile, there are always been people visible in the field of view, too.Here's the link.
Scroll down on the page, and there's also a map that shows the location of the camera relative to the volcano