Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Nagercoil - After heavy showers along E-N-E of district, now 4:10pm its quite dark and having a steady drizzle..!

Monsoon withdraws from more parts of North-West India

South-West monsoon has withdrawn from some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat on Monday in what looks like the precursor to an unusually rapid exit from the entire upper half of mainland India.
The hurried withdrawal is being attributed to its ‘release' from a temporary pause enforced around September 16 half way to the east by contra-indicating weather systems.

This was the phase when the build-up to withdrawal ran itself up against hyperactive interaction between a deep-seated trough in the western disturbance with easterlies from the Bay of Bengal triggering torrential rains over Uttarakhand, Haryana and Delhi.
After the interaction spent itself out, the way has become clear for the dry westerly-to-northwesterlies to push into these areas and expedite the withdrawal process all over again.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday said that the withdrawal line passed through Amritsar, Hissar, Jaipur, Udaipur, Ahmedabad and Porbandar.

Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and even parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during the next two to three days.
Satellite picture also indicated drying up of moist air over parts of North-West India, the IMD update said.
But the weather being set up in peninsular India by active circulations in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea could keep the withdrawing monsoon at bay for the time being.

Satellite pictures revealed the presence of convective clouds over parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Tamil Nadu, North Orissa, South Chhattisgarh, South Konkan, Goa, South Peninsular India, East-Central and South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and East-Central and South-East Arabian Sea. The IMD update said that during the last 24 hours ended Monday morning, widespread rainfall was reported from North Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka.
It was fairly widespread over the Northeastern States, Madhya Maharashtra, Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu while being scattered over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, South Gangetic West Bengal and Lakshadweep.
The cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep persisted from overnight.

International weather models suggested that occasionally wet weather would prevail over South Peninsular India until October 13, with another weather system forecast to take shape off South-East Tamil Nadu coast and just to the NorthEast of Sri Lanka.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has predicted that a western disturbance could make its presence felt over the plains of North-West India by October 6.
This would be followed the very next day by the formation of a cyclonic circulation off South-East Tamil Nadu coast. It remains to be seen whether this could in fact mean the onset of the retreat monsoon (North-East or winter monsoon) over the peninsula.
In extended forecasts, the US National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) sees this system driving rains across Tamil Nadu and Kerala as well as over parts of Karnataka and South Andhra Pradesh during the week ending October 13.
Meanwhile, an IMD weather outlook valid until Thursday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, Konkan, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
They would be scattered over Interior Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and South Chhattisgarh.
But mainly dry weather would prevail over plains of North-West India, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand indicating likely withdrawal of monsoon from these areas.
Extended forecast valid until Saturday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over South Peninsular India while rains would dry up over North-East India as well.

Climate Scam: NGO credibility hit a new low. The shame much worse than their Rwandan Genocide culpability

NGOs have moved from back stage to centre stage in world politics, and are exerting their power and influence in every aspect of international relations and policy making. They have in most part, been a positive force in domestic and international affairs. However, in recent times, various global Climate Justice Networks have popped up. These are platforms mainly constituted and controlled by Northern NGOs.
We as member of the NGO fraternity or general public seldom research their record of accomplishment; or ask awkward questions on northern NGOs policies; or chase facts behind their claims and publicity spin. One of the most basic questions as we dig deeper is what kind of credentials do these northern NGOs possess to champion justice issues. Simply put - are they committed to principles of justice as portrayed in their carefully cultivated public image?

If we go back to history, what we find is that they have a chequered past in terms of justice credentials. Rwandan Genocide until now had been regarded as the worst shame of NGO behaviour. This was genocide where an estimated 800,000 were massacred. The nineties saw NGOs soul-searching on such behaviour even as today NGO workers remain mentally scarred of experiences such as Rwanda. Apparently lessons have not been learnt as we find that through their climate advocacy they have not only repeating the mistakes of the past but the shame hit a new low.

Read more:

92A LPA - update
Time - 2010-09-29, 0900z
Intensity - 15kts
Pressure - 1010 MB
Location - 12.5ºN 69.0ºE
IMD status - LPA has formed expected to become WML
Chennai - Possibility of an early monsoon before 10-Oct is on cards..!!
Chennai - Some parts of chennai received mild showers at around 8:30am..after that max. temp. touched 32.1 C (10:55am) wind is from E-N-E
S. Arabian sea system .. "92A"... update # 1....

S. Arabian sea system .. "92A"... update # 1

Latest low level wind analysis shows the circulation... the circulation now extends upto upper levels.

Here's the satellite shot of the Arabian sea system.

and latest IR shot of the potential system.

Numeric models predict... that the system will slightly move North, then die down and followed by another LOW circulation almost immediately in the same S. Arabian sea zone.
The present and next low level circulation is expected to persist well into 6-Oct-2010.
NO cyclone or depression formation is seen from the system.
NO north ward movement into Arabian sea is also not predicted.
S. Arabian system is now a marked LOW circulation system... "92A".
11am, South Tamilnadu is already having Thunder cells, S & S-W Bay along Srilanka is active ...