No longer the Deep Depression, the Bay system, 01B. now has matured to TC status, and at 996 mb core pressure, and winds at 35 knots (on minute average),is situated at 11.8N and 86E, 420 NM South-East of Chennai.
As the latest imagery of precipitation shows, its south-west quadrant is moisture heavy, and shows good signs of growth.
having tracked north-west till now, it should continue in the same direction initially, along the ridge which is steering it at present.
But, after 24 hrs, it may re-curve to the north-east direction, as it encounters a low trough aloft,(W.D.). This change of direction is totally based on the exact location of the W.D. then. It may turn and graze the coast as it moves on, or may just strike the coast at A.P. depends on the strenght and positioning of the trough aloft then.
NOGAPS and ECMWF theorise this scenario.
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