Sunday, January 31, 2010

western disturbance with its ‘heat engine' up front has warmed the plains of the northwest .. http://bit.ly/btLr9p
Present western disturbances is currently positioned over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir .. http://bit.ly/btLr9p
At least 12 meteorological sub-divisions, all in the peninsula, recorded excess rainfall .. http://bit.ly/btLr9p
Rainfall over north-west and central India for January continues to be dismal .. http://bit.ly/btLr9p

North-west looking for rains as westerly sets up perch

Rainfall scenario over north-west and central India for January continues to be dismal with the region recording scanty rainfall until Wednesday up to which figures were available.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that this was in dire contrast to the situation obtaining in peninsular India where the entire region, except Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, has recorded excess rainfall.

EXCESS IN SOUTH

At least 12 meteorological sub-divisions, all in the peninsula, recorded excess rainfall, while two (again in the south) recorded normal rainfall. Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry found itself in the “deficient” category even as the north-west, central and east has had to contend with “scanty” rainfall.

But a precipitation outlook of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) continues to indicate the probability of isolated showers for the north and north-west during the period until February 14.

The region gets most of its rain from passing western disturbances, one of which is currently positioned over North Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.

Satellite cloud imagery showed convective clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir while low to medium clouds were seen over parts of the western Himalayan region and Punjab.

An IMD outlook said that the western disturbance would continue to impact the western Himalayan region and adjoining northern plains during the next 24 hours as well.

RAINS FORECAST

Forecast valid until Monday said that scattered to fairly widespread rain or snow but moderate in intensity would occur over western Himalayan region during next 24 hours and decrease thereafter. Isolated rain or thundershowers has been forecast for the plains of northwest India, too.

The western disturbance with its ‘heat engine' up front has warmed the plains of the northwest with both maximum and minimum temperatures looking up.


The IMD update said that minimum temperatures were above normal by as much as 6 to 8 deg Celsius over parts of west Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir and by 2 to 4 deg Celsius above normal over Uttar Pradesh, parts of Gujarat, Konkan and Goa.

They were near normal over remaining parts of northwest India while being below normal over many parts of east India where the inbound western disturbance has not exerted its influence as yet.

The lowest minimum temperature of 5.5 deg C was recorded at Shahjahanpur during the 24 hours ending Friday morning. This provided evidence to the fact that the regions with the least minimum temperatures had shifted out of the northwest.

Maximum temperatures were above normal over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, parts of west Madhya Pradesh, the northeast, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Gujarat, Konkan and Goa.

Scattered light to moderate rain or snow has occurred over Jammu and Kashmir during the 24 hours ending Friday morning. The IMD has ruled out the possibility of dense fog conditions being thrown up over the plains for at least the next three days.

But maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to fall on Saturday and Sunday as the skies clear up with the away-movement to the east of the prevailing western disturbance
Himachal promoting use of plastic waste to build roads ... http://bit.ly/9CIENb
Countrywide protest against Bt brinjal ... http://bit.ly/c2YMIR
Cold but bright morning for Delhiites .. http://bit.ly/dgNw0d
Sunny yet cold in Delhi ... http://bit.ly/9sf39m
Fresh snowfall cheers farmers in Jammu and Kashmir .. http://bit.ly/cbFzE8
Chill returns to J&K, temperature rises elsewhere in N India .. http://bit.ly/aXtMSM
Minimum temperatures are below normal by 2-4oC over parts of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, interior Maharashtra, north Karnataka.
western disturbance over western Himalayan region is moving away east-northeastwards gradually.
Isolated to scattered rain/snow will occur over parts of western Himalayan region.
Shower activity along East & south-East Srilanka and south-west Bay will continue till 5-Feb .. http://yfrog.com/3gvcfp
South-East Srilanka is getting some good showers .. http://yfrog.com/atpz6j
Chennai's - All time LOW temperature record for Month of January .. 13.9 C (29.1.1905)
Chennai - TOuched a max of 29.5°C (11:15am)... And morning low was 22.6°C (6:42am)

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Adilabad and Ramagundam recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 12 degree Celsius in Plains of Southern Peninsula on 30-Jan
South-West Bay remains active from Morning till now 8pm, It's following the GFS predicted scenario .. http://ping.fm/n0AHl
Jan foggiest month since the '60s ... http://bit.ly/d0v9J2
Cold wave eases in Delhi as mercury goes northwards ... http://bit.ly/b72vDO
Bright and sunny morning in Delhi ... http://bit.ly/bUbwZy
Delhi Smiles At Good Weather Finally ... http://bit.ly/bI4QHN
The western disturbance as an upper air system over Jammu & Kashmir is moving away East-Northeastwards
Maximum temperatures are above normal by 4-6oC over many parts of Haryana, Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
http://yfrog.com/1ed01p ... Not much rains expected for South Tamilnadu too... !
http://ping.fm/nzC6e ... These showers will spill over into South Coastal Tamilnadu as well in coming 72 hrs.
As expected the South-West Bay is active from midnight and Heavy showers for East and South-east Srilanka .. http://ping.fm/E1I8U
Chennai - Max temperature will hang around 29 deg, till Mid of February .
Chennai - Cold mornings are back after 3 days .. This cold morning & evening are to continue till 7-Feb-10

Friday, January 29, 2010

Maximum temperatures are above normal by 4-7oC over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana.
on 27-Jan, Minimum temperature rose appreciably at a few places over Telangana, at one or two places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Here's the latest satellite shot .. Shows some snow & rain for Kashmir & HP .. http://ping.fm/Tt9ee
It seems the GFS predicted rainfall for South coastal Tamilnadu is not goin to materialize.. http://yfrog.com/1y5twp ..some showers predictd
Chennai - Another mild morning 23.3°C (6:51am)

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Goa fishermen favour a longer monsoon fishing ban along the west coast of India the current ban period of 47 days from June 15 to July 31.
Charting unknown Himalayan waters ... http://bit.ly/bsYvxY
"Climate goals for 2020 under Copenhagen Accord" .. http://bit.ly/bIKz80
Climate NGOs want India to reject Copenhagen Accord ... http://bit.ly/bLmDsK
Nuclear war between India, Pak could spell climate disaster ... http://bit.ly/9pdVMr
Good News:: India ranks 123rd in pollution control; Iceland on top ... http://bit.ly/aaSWjU
Intense cold abates in north, 550 deaths this winter ... http://bit.ly/b5jj0O
Bio-waste gasifier that works out cheaper than grid power ... http://bit.ly/9VVLSJ
Why Chennai had RAINs yesterday (27-Jan-10) ...?? .. http://bit.ly/c5hdgy

Why Chennai had RAINs yesterday (27-Jan-10) ...??

The clouds which were noticed today, the 27.01.2010 / 1030 hrs were not HIGH clouds. It is medium cloud Altro status. Cumulus clouds were also seen. There was a slight circulation in the SW Bay close to south coastal AP. Lower level NE wind brought showers for Chennai and adjoining south coastal area.

Posted by Mr. Anonymous.
For posting PHOTOS, please mail to contact@indianweatherman.com
Heavy showers predicted for SOuth Tamilnadu and Srilanka after 1-Feb-10 .. http://yfrog.com/3nxqgp
South bay will get active from 29 or 30-Jan-10 and it's predicted to become very active after 1-Feb-10 .. http://yfrog.com/3nxqgp
Chennai - Records a mild morning 23.4°C (7:01am) ... contrast to yesterday morning. "a clear morning today"

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Chennai - Rains.. nothing visible from IR satellite shot .. http://ping.fm/1FrvJ
Chennai - now 2:37pm, its cloudy with HIGH cloud cover, and shower possibility only after 5 pm.
... http://bit.ly/chkZur

More about Kalakad-Mundanthurai Tiger Reserver [KMTR]

Posted by Mr. Anonymous
[1] In Kalakad-Mundanthurai Tiger Reserver [KMTR]there is one place called 'SENGALTHERI' which has to be reached from Kalakad. Only jeep track is available and it is UN declared bio reserve area. During South West monsoon period if you happen to go there you can experience the WIND blowing at tremendous speed.
[45-50 kmph guesting to 90-120 kmph]
The speed is capable enough to strip your dhoti and you can NOT stand errect without hold a mast or rock. I have advised the Forest Ranger there to install wind mills there for power production. But as this is an UN declared bio reserve TN Forest Department and TVS group which was having an idea of establishing wind mills there could NOT do so. This is the catchment area for Manimuthar river. There is a forest guest house there at SENGALTHERI built in 1909]
[2] Secondly near Manjoli estate there is a place known as Kuthiraivetti [this is one of the heavy rainfall regions in this area, apartment upper Kothaiyar which falls in Kanyakumari district where annual rainfall easily crosses 5000 mm] Here in Kuthireivetti, in November 1992, I think, one day annual rainfall of about 99 cm occurred on 11 Nov 1991. But this was NOT accounted properly . The Bombay Burma Trading Company is [Wadia Group] owning the Tea estates there. Perhaps they may be having rainfall records. Or the PWD, WRO, MANIMUTHAR DAM may be having records to this effect.
Chennai - This showery activity is predicted after 29-jan and till 3-Feb.. this is just a Small easterly moisture component.
Chennai - now 12:44pm, Another shower moving in from North-east from Sea.
Chennai - Today from morning its like a North-East monsoon season.
Chennai - Heavy moisture is moving in from North-east... causing more scattered showers... Saidapet just received a minor drizzle.
South and South-west Bay will get active from 29-Jan-10.. and this will produce scattered showers for Tamilnadu .. http://yfrog.com/4fpnag
RT @world_news1: John Travolta flies relief to Haiti http://bit.ly/dvgxaQ
Latest satellite shot will not show anything ... here it is .. a CLEAR India with a Clear looking Bay as well .. http://ping.fm/sVrAd
Chennai - May get a medium shower or two before the skies clear off for the day... this trend will continue till 3-Feb-10
Chennai - now 9:17am having some sprinkles of rain.. here in Pallavaram, pammal and Polichalur'
Chennai - These Cloud formation and showers are expected after 29-Jan-10.
Chennai - A different morning... a sharp rise in minimum temperature 24.3°C (7:33am) and with HEAVY cloud formation from North-east

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

This predicted rainfall activity for North TN coast is very RARE at this time of year .. http://ping.fm/IKqvR
Latest GFS predicts a very heavy shower activity for entire Tamilnadu coast from 31-Jan-2010 .. http://ping.fm/4jZPm
From 28-Jan-2010 till end of 1st week of FEB.. south and south-west Bay will witness very heavy activity .. http://ping.fm/MYTZR
South Bay may witness more rainfall activity in another 48 hrs .. http://ping.fm/2JzXn
Fog/shallow fog conditions would occur in the morning hours over Gangetic plains during next 24 hours.
Amritsar again records a super low of .. -1.2°C
UN report on climate change and natural disasters was 'balanced' ... http://bit.ly/7lVAMI
RT @Dogs_: Support CARE's Relief Effort in Haiti - Donate Online Now (Please RT) SuppHaiti http://bit.ly/6N1zmr (ad)
Crowds at R-Day parade undeterred by fog ... http://bit.ly/6PVufk
When the cold strikes hard ... http://bit.ly/571TC3
Chill dip temporary ... http://bit.ly/7FVAzJ
RT @moviecarmania: Boy, 7, raises $160,000 for Haiti appeal - http://bit.ly/7N1Dls cnn Very cool.
Chennai - Not a cold morning for Chennai... now 10:16am its bright and sunny.
Delhi - Republic day celebrations start Amidst another VERY foggy morning in NewDelhi

Monday, January 25, 2010

Mumbai:: decade’s highest high tide, 5.18 metres, is due on 2-Feb-10.
Chennai - Now 2:36pm, not cloudy as compared to yesterday afternoon & evening.
Chennai - Today morning low was 20.4°C (6:49am)
A CLEAR and COLD India today .. http://yfrog.com/1y65oj
Good Western disturbance will start affecting the North from 28-Jan-10 .. http://yfrog.com/au9byp
South Bay may host a flurry of rain activity after 27-Jan-10, this'll affect the south coastal Tamilnadu .. http://yfrog.com/au9byp
Minimum temperature rose appreciably at one or two places over Telangana, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, North Tamil Nadu
Maximum temperatures are below normal by 5-9oC over parts of Uttar Pradesh & Bihar
VIDEO:: UN climate panel admits mistake .. http://bit.ly/7JSyUY

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Chennai - Temperature now 9:34pm... 25.5°C and getting down slowly.
COLD TERROR :: Cold wave continues in northern India, 535 dead ... http://bit.ly/69e3SG
Delhi fogged out for third consecutive day .. VIDEO ... http://bit.ly/8ertxt
RT @TITTIPRICE: tear gas during UNdistribution in haiti http://bit.ly/6s0Cvj
RT @Healthcare_Fit: Planes bring wounded from Haiti - MiamiHerald.com: 7Online WSVN-TV Planes bring wounded from… http://goo.gl/fb/q5pT
Genetically Modified food will be ruling the world in future .. http://bit.ly/8yMFGN
Bt Brinjal ... http://bit.ly/8yMFGN
Remedy for "treated effluent" posted by one of our reader .. http://bit.ly/4AArDL
Awareness of need for growing mangrove plants increased in Kanyakumari district .. http://bit.ly/8UZRiu

Awareness of need for growing mangrove plants increased in Kanyakumari district

Taken from http://myviews4life.wordpress.com/
NGOs have raised saplings on the banks of Rajakkamangalam estuary

Nagercoil: Awareness among the fishermen community of the need for growing mangrove plants has gained momentum in the coastal areas of the district after tsunami devastated the entire coastal environment in Kanyakumari district.

Indeed it has come as boon to them, as its root held the boulders intact, wherever the Government has constructed anti-sea erosion walls or groins to prevent the sea erosion.

A cross section of the tsunami-affected people in the coastal villages of the district said that that the district administration in co-operation with various non-governmental organisations came forward to raise mangrove plants in estuaries in the coastal areas of the district after tsunami, because in few places where there were mangroves, the damage caused by the tsunami was very low throughout the State when compared to other coastal areas.

Besides raising 50,000 mangrove plants to the length of 8 to 10 km in Manakudi estuary, non-governmental organisations in consultation with various environmentalists have raised saplings (mangroves) on the banks of Rajakkamangalam estuary to the length of 2 km and around the ponds within the premises of Manonmaniam Sundaranar University’s Marine Centre for Biotechnology in Rajakkamangalam.

Mangroves in Kanyakumari district, especially in Manakudy and Rajakkamangalam estuaries acted as a strong barrier to the pillaging effects of the giant waves. Mangrove plantation, wherever it was possible in the coastal areas of the district, was one of the programmes after tsunami hit the entire coast among several other programmes were developed for preventing and managing nature’s fury.

Mangroves protected the seacoasts, estuaries from heavy wind and storms and their roots withheld the silt and the clayey soil (Manavalakurichy) thus preventing soil erosion.

The mangrove forests also helped in the maintenance of bio-diversity. Migratory birds like pelicans, painted storks, cormorants, darters, cranes and indigenous storks visited the estuaries and roosted in the mangroves. Bird droppings enriched the water body and it could be seen in the catch of fish, prawns and more than 5,000 kg of white prawns were harvested by the fishermen in and around Manakudi in a year.

The district administration in co-operation with various agencies had been decided to raise mangrove forests in Eraiyammanthurai estuary and on the banks of Anantha Victoria Marthanda Varma channel near Manavalakurich, where one could see lot of sand dunes.

Remedy for "treated effluent"

Posted by Mr.Anonymous...

Tiruppur is said to be Indian Manchester for garments. Dying units there are ancillary units to knitting and garments manufacturing. Effluent treatment requires huge investment [in the light of present day technology]and additional man power. Moreover the treated effluent leaves permanent scar on land and water. But there is one remedy for that.
[1] Puthiyamputhur is a small town in Ottapidaram Taluk, Thoothukudi district. This Puthiyamputhar has the distinction of having more skilled labours in garments and knitting work,including villages Kulathur,Surangudi,Maniyatchi, Pasuvanthannai etc. [Even now most of the skilled labours from this area are working in Tiruppur]
[2] Puthiyamputhur is 23 Km away from Thoothukudi.
[3] 24 hours uninterrupted power supply is available. To some extend assured water is available from the big ponds [Pachari Kulam, Malar Kulam etc]
[4] The nearest coast is 20-25 km east of this town and treated water can be let into sea. Sea will not be so polluted compared to river.
[5]Best education institutions including professional colleges are available in and around the town.
(Palayamkottai via Sivalaperi is only 48 km]
[6] Best hospitals are available in Thoothukudi and Tirunelveli.
[7] Thoothukudi-Madurai is a National Highway and Puthamputhur is roughly 10km South of NH from Kurukkusalai.
[8]Thoothukudi is well connected by rail, road , air and sea.
[9] In deed the sea port is very close to this town and it is a boom for industrialist venturing in this land.
[10] The barren land scape between Maniyatchi and Ottapidaram will be ideal for establishing effluent treatment plant and with out any pollution effect the effluent can be let into sea. This may require lesser investment. (Even the heavy water plant at Thoothukudi after effluent treatment is letting water into sea)
I request entrepreneurs and knitting factory owners to try venturing at Puthiyamputhur. This is another alternate option for them to get rid on the worries of effluent treatment etc. Further their business will flourish like any thing and their foreign trade will be becoming more easier and more cost effective.

Bt Brinjal

Posted by Mr. Anonymous...
Genetically Modified food will be ruling the world in future. Even the so called crafting in Mango trees is also a form of gentical modification. This has resulted in good yield and best taste. Applying the same Technic in advanced manner will definitely yield better results. Time will come to support Bt Brinjal.
Chennai - Good sea breeze is causing heavy low cloud formation over south suburbs of Chennai. Small possibility of a local shower in south.
RT @anitakc: RT @CNN: 'Hope for Haiti' raises $58 million and counting. http://bit.ly/79ncSX
RT @heyjude408: 10 Songs to Download to Donate Haiti (incl Linkin Park, Peter Gabriel, Dave Matthews Band) http://ping.fm/hPcxd
whether to clear genetically modified crop Bt brinjal for commercial use ??? .. http://bit.ly/7mbFbF
India to tackle pollution with energy cuts ... http://bit.ly/6mTo54
Study links Asia to smog component in Western US ... http://bit.ly/8RyMoE
Air pollution from eastern and southern Asia may be causing spikes in atmospheric ozone levels over North America.. http://bit.ly/7plMlm
Tirupur tanneries continue to discharge effluents into Noyyal river .. http://bit.ly/6il2Lf
A unique conference on climate change, organised specially for students .. http://bit.ly/5skiND
NASA: 2009 tied for 2nd-warmest year, 00s hottest decade too .. http://bit.ly/4upqTV
West uses 'glacier theory' to flog India on climate ... http://bit.ly/6ET3et
Hard times for climate scientists .. http://bit.ly/8lv1U8
Glaciergate was a blunder, but it's the sceptics who dissemble ... http://bit.ly/8fzinG
UN climate panel chief: Error shouldn't derail global warming efforts in India ... http://bit.ly/6S4TLA
India wheat futures seen down on weather .. http://bit.ly/5gKYaE
Delhi enjoys warm weekend as mercury rises, but fog persists .. http://bit.ly/71A5Pg
Heavy fog engulfs Delhi, air, rail traffic hit ... http://bit.ly/5pidns
Dense fog continues to disrupt rail, road & air traffic in North India .. http://digg.com/u1L7kJ
Around 29-Jan-10, A good western disturbance will move over North India and more showers for South Tamilnadu .. http://yfrog.com/4auigp
RT @megan0ad4: Oh my god! If rain deficit goes above 22%, Agriculture growth may go down to -6 % from 2% and India's GDP growth below 5%! :(
RT @GJRO: $60 million+ raised in the Hope for Haiti last night!!! My $10 was apart of that =)
Showers predicted for South coastal Tamilnadu from 26-Jan-10 .. http://yfrog.com/3llsgp
A feeble western disturbance over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood moving away east-northeastwards.
Maximum temperatures are below normal by 11oC over isolated pockets of east Uttar Pradesh.
Haiti survivor pulled out of rubble: Rescue teams bring out trapped man alive 11 days after 7.0 magnitude quake fl... http://bit.ly/92j8D1
Chennai - A mild morning compared to previous 3 days.... 22.0°C (6:20am) ..

Saturday, January 23, 2010

http://bit.ly/6l3NUT ... Why "Vellore" records LOW temperatures in Tamilnadu during Winter ..?????
Why "Vellore - Tamilnadu" records LOW temperature during Winter ?? ... http://digg.com/u1L5PQ

Why "Vellore - Tamilnadu" records LOW temperature during Winter ??

Vellore during winter period draws wind from North Westerly direction. This dry cold continental wind originates from High pressure located in NW parts of India and passes through Punjab, Hariyana, NCR, West UP, Royalaseema and its eastern flange passes through Vellore. That is why Vellore and towns and cities to its West and NW locations will experience lower temperature in winter compare to Chennai. More over Vellore is inland and coastal effect is also influencing Chennai.

Posted by Mr. Anonymous
In Tamilnadu, vellore records .. 14 deg Celsius on morning of 23-Jan-10
Chennai - Sunday morning will again witness another 18 or 19 deg Celsius
Minimum temperatures are below normal by 4-6 oC for .. Vidarbha, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka
Amritsar - Cold again -0.8 oC at Amritsar (Punjab)
Chennai - Max temperature has remained the same for past 5 days .. 29.2°C (1:19pm)
How rainfall is measured ...??? .. http://digg.com/u1L57Y

"Agumbe may be wet, but Hulikal is wetter" ... Mr.Anonymous responds.!!

For the interest of the general Public I must give certain points on how rainfall is measured. First of all according to WMO criteria
[1] There should be atleast one raingauge in every 250 Sq.Km area in plains and at least one raingauge for every 100 sq.km area in hilly areas.
[2] In India Fibre Glass Reinforced Polyester (FRP) Raingauge of diameter 159.6 mm and collector area 200 sq.cm is in use for the measurements of rainfall.
[3] This 200 sq.cm collector area raingauge must have relevant 20mm measure glass.
[4] Rainfall measurements should have to be taken at 0300Z [0830 hrs IST] daily without fail to enable comparison.
[5] The exposure of raingauge must be good.
Most of the raingauges maintained at vantage meteorological locations are NOT maintained by IMD. State government is maintaining such raingauges. Often the raingauge and measure glass combination may NOT be correct. Thus will lead to distorted or enhanced rainfall amount. {As happened in Chinna Kallar in 2007 ; in that year the annual rainfall was reported as 7000 mm because of the irrelevant measure glass.} In Agumbe too there were instances when the measurements were reported wrong.
In the light of the above I wish to state that Meteorologically vantage location should be properly assessed by scientific community and wish that Government should come out with rigid plans to deploy men and material at vantage locations to augment Disaster Management.
IRI ::Expected precipitation trends through August and September to be likely influenced by the La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific
Dr Michael Ferrari, a forecast specialist with Weather Trends, initial signals indicate to “a better onset(south-west monsoon) period”
IRI :: the traditional “hot plates” of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Orissa may not exactly heat up to those levels during March-April-May
IRI:: South peninsula would also have to contend with maximum possibility for below-normal precipitation during this period
IRI:: peninsular south is assessed as having the highest probability (70 per cent) for above normal temperatures during February-March-April

Rain, slight uptick in mercury seen for North

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at the University of Columbia has said that there is a 40 per cent probability of above-normal temperatures breaking out over northwest India during February-March-April.

This is the lowest on a five-grade probable temperature value scale plotted by the IRI in its seasonal weather outlook for this year.

West Rajasthan and adjoining central India could be relatively higher probability (50 to 60 per cent) of above normal temperatures during this period. But elevated probability for above-normal precipitation has been indicated for the North (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh) through February to May.

The peninsular south is assessed as having the highest probability (70 per cent) for above normal temperatures during February-March-April.

This region would also have to contend with maximum possibility for below-normal precipitation during this period.

The trend is forecast to continue to hold as such during March-April-May, but probability for linearly regressive temperature values are seen over central India and to the further north.

Rainfall probability for the southwest coast (mainly Kerala) has been indicated to be below normal during this phase.

In what looks like a pleasant surprise, the traditional “hot plates” of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Orissa may not exactly heat up to those levels during March-April-May and April-May-June.

Rainfall probability has been forecast to be less than normal over coastal Orissa and adjoining coastal areas of Gangetic West Bengal.

As for May-June-July, which coincides with the onset phase of the southwest monsoon, the IRI sees the peninsular south cooling, and the heating anomalies retreating to Gujarat and adjoining west Rajasthan.

ONSET PHASE

Precipitation, too, is seen to be normal for the entire country during the onset phase.

Similar forecast has come from Weather Trends International, a leading US-based private forecaster.

According to Dr Michael Ferrari, a forecast specialist with Weather Trends, initial signals indicate to “a better onset period”.

Last year's onset was delayed, and rains did not really pick up until later in the season.

But for 2010, the private forecaster sees a better start to the season.

“While the onset does look favorable, we are cautious when looking at the rainfall pattern for July through September,” Dr Ferrari wrote in his outlook statement.


“Looking ahead, we are not anticipating a recovery to a normal rainfall distribution for the entire season. Regarding a recovery in the Indian crop as a whole, we are looking towards 2011.”

Scientists with the Research Institute for Global Change in Tokyo have assessed that the prevailing El Nino conditions may have peaked and could give way to a late season La Nina during this year.

They expected precipitation trends through August and September to be likely influenced by the La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific that have traditionally favoured the Indian monsoon though without direct cause-effect relationship.

Meanwhile, an update from India Meteorological Department said on Friday that minimum temperatures continued to stay below-normal over many parts of east Uttar Pradesh, central, east and peninsular India and isolated pockets of Punjab. Cold wave conditions prevailed over many parts of Chhattisgarh and some parts of east Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, Punjab, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, interior Maharashtra and Telangana.

Amritsar recorded the lowest minimum temperature of -1.2 degree Celsius during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

Forecast for the next two days said that dense fog conditions will continue in the morning hours over parts of Indo-Gangetic plains. Cold wave conditions would occur over parts of central and adjoining east India.

Minimum temperatures may increase over parts of northwest India. Isolated to scattered rain or snow will occur over western Himalayan region. Isolated light rain has also been forecast over Punjab and Haryana mainly on Sunday

Cyclone Magda Comes Ashore


Tropical Cyclone Magda came ashore in Western Australia on January 22, 2010. The U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that the storm was roughly 395 nautical miles (730 kilometers) east-northeast of Port Headland and had been traveling southward. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 50 knots (95 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 65 knots (120 kilometers per hour). Over land, however, Magda was expected to quickly dissipate.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image of Magda over the Indian Ocean in the northwest and Western Australia in the southeast. Lacking a distinct eye, the storm nevertheless spans several hundred kilometers.
On January 22, The Sydney Morning Herald reported that Magda might have damaged some buildings along the Kimberly coast, but no injuries had yet been reported.
Must see video ::: Haiti: 360° ... http://digg.com/u1L3r5
Chennai - Records another 18.6°C (6:51am)
RT @kunalrao: Stepped off air plane at chennai and almost died of shock when i got a hint of a cool breeze. Yes i said cool.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Weird red rain in India ... VIDEO .... http://digg.com/u1L1Q1
Western Disturbance over north India in next 72hrs will Clear the FOGGy condition and min. temp will rise.
western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India during next 2-3 days.
Max temp. above normal by 3-5oC over parts of Rajasthan Gujarat, Konkan and northeastern states and near normal over rest of the country.
Cold intensifies in N-India, dense fog in many areas ... http://digg.com/u1L1Lr
killer chill, 500 dead and counting ... http://digg.com/u1L1LK
It is also true that some glaciers remain static or are growing .. http://digg.com/u1L1L9
RT @CNNTwits: Haiti news updates: Friday, January 22 http://twurl.nl/p5g8xg
RT @LimmieP: Haitian Government: more than 80,000 people buried in mass graves in the aftermath of the Jan. 12th Haiti earthquake AssociatedPress
RT @new_headline: Wired: Haiti Aftershocks Will Continue for Months, Perhaps Even Years. http://bit.ly/6TS93w
Chennai - Now 10:22pm its cold 21.8°C... Another very cold early morning ahead.... May even touch 17 °C

Cold wave filtering into peninsular India

A warm westerly component has embedded itself into the flows over the Indo-Gangetic plains but the colder northwesterlies are proving too strong and sustained, to make any significant difference to the chilly weather.

It is now becoming more or less clear that an apparent cold wave is filtering south beyond central India into north-interior Karnataka and Telangana, thus bringing parts of peninsula under its influence.

Minimum temperatures fell appreciably at one or two places over interior Karnataka, Telangana, and north-interior Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning, an update by the Chennai Regional Meteorological Centre said.

Adilabad recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 6 degree Celsius in the plains of the peninsula during this period.

In the north, minimum temperatures were below normal by 3 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, interior Orissa, Vidarbha and Marathwada.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Thursday said that the lowest minimum temperature over plains of the country was -1.0 deg Celsius at Amritsar.

Cold wave conditions were also reported from parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Fog to dense fog conditions prevailed over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

FRESH WESTERLY

Maximum day temperatures were still below normal by 5 to 10 deg Celsius over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and north Haryana. Cold day conditions continued to prevail over many parts of Punjab and parts of Uttar Pradesh.

Meanwhile, an IMD outlook said that a fresh western disturbance with warm and rising motion of air is likely to affect western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India from Saturday onwards.


Under the circumstances, the forecast for dense to very dense fog conditions during the morning hours over parts of Indo-Gangetic plain has been extended for two more days.


In this manner, cold day conditions may abate from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but not from eastern parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.

As for the south, the Chennai Met Centre said that cold wave conditions would occur over northern parts of Telangana during the next two nights as well.

The outlook for the Rabi crop continues to be good, according to Dr L. S. Rathore, Head Agromet Division and Additional Director General of Meteorology, IMD. Dr Rathore, who is in Thiruvananthapuram to take part in the annual conference of users of IMD's public weather services, said that weather conditions have panned out well for Rabi crops, including wheat.

“So far, so good,” he told Business Line, adding that despite the extended cold weather and fog conditions, no damage from frost had been reported from anywhere.

If these favourable conditions persist, we can expect to see Rabi wheat crop size of 79-80 million tones, which is line with the Union Agriculture Ministry estimates, Dr Rathore said. The country produced a record 80.58 million tones of the same crop during the 2008-09 season.

Storms in California


A series of strong storms pounded California in January 2010. Fierce winds and heavy rains downed power lines and flooded streets as the National Weather Service warned residents to brace for as much as 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain in five days. A likely tornado flipped a car, smashed windows and ripped a roof in Orange County on January 19. On January 20, authorities ordered the evacuation of 800 homes in the Los Angeles foothills, fearing mudslides from areas devastated by the previous summer’s Station Fire.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image on January 20, 2010. Over the Pacific Ocean and the California coast, clouds assume the shape of a giant apostrophe, looking vaguely like a hurricane missing most of its center. The storm’s shape suggests a low-pressure system drawing in strong winds from nearby areas. Patches of clear sky allow glimpses of California’s Central Valley and Baja California.
The storms striking Southern California were the strongest since at least 2005, according to news reports. Although less violent in Northern California, storm activity there led to power outages. As of January 21, forecasters warned that another storm was approaching the state.
Maximum temperatures are below normal by 6-11oC over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and Haryana.
Tamilnadu coast might be in for some scattered showers & min-temperature may rise from MID week .. 26-Jan .. http://yfrog.com/3lclbp
Amritsar again records a record low temperature of -1.2 oC
Himalayan glaciers, polar bears aren’t going anywhere ... http://digg.com/u1KzPu
Himalayan glaciers, polar bears aren’t going anywhere ... http://digg.com/u1KzPu
Chennai - Touches another super low temperature 18.3°C (6:42am) today morning.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Chennai - Night temperature into Early morning will go down up to 18 deg... so keep urself WARM
lowest minimum temperature over plains of the country was -1.0o C recorded at Amritsar
Minimum temp are below normal by 3-5o C over parts of Punjab, east UP, Bihar, east MP, Chhattisgarh, interior Orissa, Vidarbha, Marathwada and north interior Karnataka
India wheat futures seen down on weather ... http://digg.com/u1KwUO
Dense fog plays havoc with air, surface traffic in North India ... http://digg.com/u1KwUH
Fog disrupts travel in India; cold toll tops 450 ... http://digg.com/u1KwTr
At the end of this month a WET phase may brush the southern coast of Tamilnadu & Srilanka.. http://yfrog.com/3kjj4p
As predicted by GFS models... the next 5 days is going to be DRY, Clear and COLD for entire south peninsula .. http://yfrog.com/6mfkip
Chennai - After that early morning low temperature touched a peak of 29.6°C (1:10pm)
Chennai - Morning was pretty cold as compared to Chennai standards .. 19.4°C (7:01am)
Yesterday (20-Jan) left Nagercoil with a warm, clear & dry evening.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Chennai - Today's minimum temperature was 22.0°C (6:42am)
Chennai - Humidity .. 70% ... bit on higher side at this time of year.
Chennai - Touched a max of 29.8°C (1:04pm).. a warm & high humidity day.

Agumbe may be wet, but Hulikal is wetter

If Agumbe continues to receive less rain, it may lose its tag of the rain capital of the state to Hulikal, a neighbouring range in the Western Ghats.
Agumbe in Thirthahalli taluk of Shimoga district is dubbed as the ‘Cherrapunjee of the South’. But Cherrapunjee itself is no longer the wettest place on Earth. It lost its crown to Mawsynram, also in Meghalaya.

While Hulikal received above-average rainfall of 3,231 mm this year, Agumbe, till July 15, had received only 2,807.2 mm of rainfall against its average of 3,070 mm.

With hardly five months left for the year to end, a senior officer at Agumbe Rainforest Research Station doubted whether Agumbe can record even average rainfall this year.

The station is the only permanent rainforest research station in the country. What is more worrisome for officials is that if the trend continues for another couple of years, Agumbe will lose its position as the “wettest place in the state’’.

No one was happier than Ravi Bhat, a local at Hulikal. After all, he had been measuring the rainfall near his home in Hulikal and comparing it with data provided by Agumbe Rainforest Research Station.

“I have been closely observing the rain pattern in Agumbe and Hulikal with rain gauges over the past five years. And I am quite convinced that Hulikal is now the state’s wettest place, though I have no proper data to substantiate it,’’ Bhat said.

Since the authenticity of data that come from Hulikal is questionable, meteorologists in Bangalore consider the whole exercise of comparing the rainfall in these two places quite meaningless. “Unlike Agumbe, there is no meteorological office at Hulikal. Nor are any trained meteorological observers posted there. Unskilled people posted there take the readings,’’ said a senior officer, adding that Hulikal should also have a meteorological observatory like the one at Agumbe, with qualified staff.
Maximum temperatures are below normal by 6-9°C over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal
Agumbe may be wet, but Hulikal is wetter ... http://digg.com/u1KXla
Solar Eclipse and the Haiti Earthquake ... ??? .... http://digg.com/u1KXlT
Palam village to host North India’s first Doppler radar .. http://is.gd/6vdl9

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Latest from Haiti .. REPORT .. http://digg.com/u1KVBr
RT @AlertNet: Magnitude 6.3 earthquake off Argentina. No reports of damage http://ow.ly/Xkl5 argentina earthquake aid
RT @somamuthu: let us all pray for the survivors of Haiti ....
Past 4 weeks of Rainfall over south peninsula has gone down yesterday... Bapatla recorded rainfall of 1 centimetre.
Cold day conditions may occur over some parts of Indo-Gangetic plains and Assam during next 1-2 days.
Maximum temperatures are below normal by 6-9°C over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal.
Chennai - Showers OR any drizzle for Chennai is not expected today.
Satellite shows.. Heavy showers for SOuth-Srilanka and Gulf of Mannar is active .. http://yfrog.com/6o1kzj
Chennai - All of a sudden getting localized drizzle, now 10:32pm here in Polichalur, Pallavaram.
A High pressure Anti-Cyclone is over Rajasthan .. http://ping.fm/2mleK
Rush of Haiti aid slowed by infrastructure ... http://digg.com/u1KTyQ
Experts warned of earthquake risk on Haiti ... http://digg.com/d11FULD
CNN:: Locate eyewitness accounts from Haiti .. http://digg.com/u1KTyB
Haiti earthquake: Hillary Clinton visits devastated capital ... http://digg.com/u1KTxp
Overcast conditions, fog back in Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana ... http://digg.com/u1KTxC
Some respite from cold for people in JK ... http://digg.com/u1KTx5
RT @ANEWGAMER: George Clooney, Busy With Haiti Relief, Skips Critics' Choice Awards http://bit.ly/8qgYqp
Heavy fog engulfs Delhi, air, rail traffic badly hit ... http://digg.com/u1KTwv
http://ping.fm/xcUTH ... Showers for Srilanka. Gulf of Mannar may get active after 2 pm causing showers along South-East tip of TN
A clear India with some shower activity over U.P ... http://ping.fm/k550N
RT @Sofffia: RT @jerusalemnews: IDF in Haiti begin to rescue and treat hundreds. Israel http://bit.ly/5eU5yB
RT @MSF_USA: Experienced Doctors Without Borders staff in Haiti say they have never seen so many serious injuries. http://bit.ly/6x0GMw
Chennai - Still humidity is around 65%.. but feels mild & dry... Chill will set in from Early evening.
Chennai - Touched a good low of 21.3°C (5:10am) after a warm & humid past week

Saturday, January 16, 2010

RT @abc7: Strong aftershock strikes Haiti's capital, hampers rescue efforts http://bit.ly/75kYvW
From evening of 19-Jan.. Whole of India is going to have CLEAR skies and minimum temperatures will be below normal.
Western Disturbance:: Isolated rain/snow would occur over western Himalayan region .. http://yfrog.com/3n1b7p
Chennai - Temperature now 10:17pm is 25.4°C and going down.. will reach 22 deg at around 6 am.
lowest minimum temperature of 0.8°C over recorded at Amritsar (Punjab)
Minimum temperatures are below normal by 3-5°C over many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and isolated pockets of East Rajasthan and Haryana.
Rainfall on 15-Jan-10:: Chintalapudi (West Godavari dt) and Kaikalur (Krishana dt) 5 CM each
Chennai - Traffic arrangements for "Kaanum Pongal" .. http://digg.com/u1KMtl
Chennai - is going to have a good, dry & clear "Kaanum Pongal" day. very less low cloud formation & mild wind from North-east will be there.

7.0 Quake Near Port Au Prince, Haiti



At 4:53 p.m. local time on January 12, 2010, a 7.0-magnitude earthquake struck Hispaniola Island, just 15 kilometers (10 miles) southwest of the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince. Besides its strong magnitude, the earthquake’s shallow depth of roughly 8.3 kilometers (5.2 miles) ensured that the densely populated capital suffered violent shaking.
This map shows the topography and tectonic influences in the region of the earthquake. Ocean areas appear in shades of blue, and land areas appear in shades of brown. Lighter colors indicate higher elevation on land and shallower depth in the water. Black circles mark earthquake locations determined by the USGS, and circle sizes correspond with quake magnitudes. Dozens of aftershocks followed the main quake. Red lines indicate fault lines.
The USGS reported that the earthquakes occurred along the boundary between the Caribbean and North America plates. The two tectonic plates meet at a strike-slip fault, with the Caribbean plate moving eastward with respect to the North America plate. The January 12 earthquake was the worst to strike the region in decades, and possibly well over a century.
According to news reports, schools, hospitals, government buildings, aid centers, and homes collapsed. Authorities reported that thousands were feared dead. Survivors scrambled to rescue trapped friends and family members without the benefits of electricity or phone service while more than 30 aftershocks rocked the area.
Eclipse was observed on the southern tip of India by Jay Pasachoff, the Williams astronomer and eclipse expert .. http://digg.com/u1KMqN
Maximum temperatures are below normal by 8-10°C over most parts of east Uttar Pradesh.
Rainfall on 14-Jan:: Koyyalagudem (West Godavari), Yerragondapalam (Prakasam dt) and Jamakhandi (Bagalkote dt) 6 CM each.
The Whole of India is going to have CLEAR skies & COLD weather from 20-Jan-10 .. http://yfrog.com/1ybk7p
Chennai - Getting cold again after a week of Warm mornings.. today it was 23.3°C (7:05am)
A clear looking India with some odd high & medium cloud cover .. http://ping.fm/Zrvht

Friday, January 15, 2010

RT @LinkedIn: Haiti Relief: LinkedIn Group to solicit help & find opps to volunteer & donate - http://bit.ly/8Bb58x
Chennai - Getting COLD again tonight, after a week of WARM nights.
RT @ianwilhelm: Clinton Foundation has raised $5.2 million online for Haiti from more than 58,000 donations as of this morning
RT @whitehouse: Amazing! Americans raise $8M+ for @RedCross by texting HAITI to 90999 ($10 charged to your cell bill) http://bit.ly/7xDSqn
RT @bastylefilegirl: RT @SplendoraHQ: RT @huffingtonpost Madonna Donates $250K To Haiti http://bit.ly/4n79bT
RT @BarbRad: RT @uscoastguard: CDR Durham, first U.S. military commander to respond to Haiti earthquake, on CNN http://tinyurl.com/yl2tr33
RT @ibwhitty: Clooney, other celebrities to join Haiti telethon - http://bit.ly/5BsR1B
RT @iranangel: /@greensisters: RT @gemswinc: Search and Rescue Dogs from Around the World Go to Haiti http://tinyurl.com/ydfkc3m
Haiti - Red Cross ventured an estimate of up to 50,000 deaths .. FULL PHOTO report .. http://digg.com/d11Fe5I
Another moisture push happening from Arabian sea into Coastal Karnataka ... http://ping.fm/jNy9o .. More showers possible for Karnataka.
RT @melwyn29: South India lost its winter season ??????...>>> Cold wave coming up after 20-Jan-2010, till 15-Feb-2010
The present Easterlies will last only till 20-Jan-2010.. After that VERY dry and COLD phase till 15-Feb .. http://yfrog.com/3llbpp
Year 2010 to witness three more eclipses ... http://digg.com/u1KDdQ
RT @ankur_luvs5: Saw d eclipse wid x ray sheet..Its lookin awesome guyz. .
RT @prakash_chn: Current update.. In chennai 85% of sun is covered by moon.. Fantastic moments in my life..
RT @phyowaithu82: trying to see the longest solar eclipse in mellineum!
RT @vishalshenira: ha ha... i look up to da sky.. i can see Solar Eclipse now in Colombo @RealKevinRudolf @jaysean
RT @devav2: ppl in office are watching the sun with CD/DVD and they are able view the eclipse :D
Chennai - Mild, dry & Clear day helped people to witness the Rare spectacle.
Chennai - Eclipse - Shadow Slowly moving away from Sun.
RT @myjino: good visibility for the eclipse in kochi..get out now to see the peak eclipse
Chennai - Skies are Almost totally CLEAR to witness this Solar spectacle at 1:30:5 pm
RT @nayakgirin: All in chennai, the Solar eclipse wil be at its best at 13.30.
RT @purplebeats: OMG ALL SHOPS CLOSED STREETS EMPTY eclipse
RT @deniemel: its 1318 hrs and am here in chennai witnessing the longest eclipse of the century with my special glasses... en i should say its awesome...
RT @indyank: It has gone dark now here in chennai solareclipse
Chennai - Eclipse Nearing its greatest phase .. 6 minutes more
Nagercoil, Kanyakumari .. Eclipse at its FULL now 1:23pm
RT @SheepStop: solar eclipse with a twist http://bit.ly/8UNRz8
Chennai - Eclipse - Timing of Greatest phase at 1:30:5 PM
Chennai - Eclipse - now 11:34am, Very less cloud formation... warm & humid. Chennai will get a CLEAR sky to view the eclipse.
"LIVE" - Annular Solar Eclipse - 15-Jan-2010 ... http://digg.com/u1KD1V
Path of eclipse over Southern India .. http://yfrog.com/1eekhg
Annular Solar Eclipse: January 15 2010 .. FULL REPORT .. http://digg.com/u1KD07

Annular Solar Eclipse - 15-Jan-2010 "LIVE"

RT @bobmaina: The solar eclipse is now being witnessed in Nairobi Kenya
RT @MeetuSingh: all temples to remain closed during solar eclipse
RT @palashbh: Next eclipse in 1033 years later
RT @Archit_: longest Solar eclipse of last 1000 yrs is about to begin,dont miss to watch but not with your naked eyes,use photo negatives to see through
RT @jalajmathur: gone to see the Solar Eclipse ... For the first time feeling lucky to be here in Trivandrum !!! ;)
Tamil Nadu Solar Eclipse Time in January 2010 – Chennai Surya Grahanam January 15 ... http://is.gd/6ieqp
India:: Cloud, rains likely to mar solar eclipse watch ... http://digg.com/u1KCrN
Chennai - Eclipse timing from 11:25:32 AM to 03:15:13 PM

Cloud, rains likely to mar solar eclipse watch

Eager sky watchers awaiting the longest annular solar eclipse of this millennium on Friday are likely to be greeted by partly cloudy sky and isolated rains.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that these less than promising “eclipse watch” conditions would prevail along an arc extending right from the country's northeast to southwest.

The partial cloud cover may in this manner hang over Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Cloud Cover

The Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) at Sriharikota and the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (Terls) at the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre where elaborate arrangements have been made to track the celestial spectacle are expected to variously fall under the cloud cover on the appointed day.

With one day to go, satellite pictures on Wednesday showed the presence of a bank of massive clouding off Indonesia and adjoining east Indian Ocean and southeast Bay of Bengal looking threateningly at Sri Lanka and southern Indian peninsula.

Meanwhile, minimum temperatures over the Indo-Gangetic plains were below normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of west Rajasthan and the Indo-Gangetic plains. Maximum temperatures were appreciably below normal over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya and isolated pockets of west Rajasthan.

Cold day conditions continued to prevail over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and extended eastwards over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.

Rains Over North-west

Isolated to scattered rainfall has occurred over most parts of northwest and central India and snowfall over western Himalayan region.

This is even as a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies is expected to affect the western Himalaya region during the next 24 hours.

The trough represents a low-pressure area with ascending motion of air, which on cooling falls down as either or snow, depending on the respective altitudes.

The IMD has forecast scattered rainfall to continue over parts of plains of northwest and adjoining central India until Wednesday evening. Isolated to scattered rainfall activity over east India during the next two days.


Forecast up to Saturday spoke about the possibility of fog to very dense fog conditions in the morning hours over the plains of northwest India during next 24 hours and over entire Indo-Gangetic plains thereafter.

A slight rise has been indicated in maximum temperatures over the Indo-Gangetic plains from Thursday onwards. But cold day conditions may continue to occur over some parts of the plains during the next two days.

The minimum temperatures are expected to fall over northwest and central India during next three days as the westerly system moves east yielding space for cold northerly to northwesterlies.

Meanwhile, an easterly wave has been affecting south peninsular India over the past two days. This has also triggered confluence of opposing winds over central and east India, which would continue for the next two days as well.

According to the Chennai Regional Met Centre, rainfall has been reported from a few places over interior Karnataka over the past 24 hours.

Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu and coastal Karnataka as the rains propagated north-northeast into the interior. Bellary recorded a heavy rainfall of seven cm during this period.

Forecast until Friday spoke about the possibility of further rains at a few places over Andhra Pradesh. Isolated rain has been forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, south interior Karnataka, coastal and north interior Karnataka.

An outlook by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction continued to predict that the scattered rainfall over the peninsula would continue until January 20.
Dhanushkodi will see the best part of the eclipse between 1:15 and 1:30 pm
Chennai - "Eclipse Day" - Going to be Warm, mostly clear skies with some LOW cloud formation.
Effect of the solar eclipse on all rashis .. http://is.gd/6id8F
Chennai - Another HIGH morning low temperature .. 25.4°C (5:43am)

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Solar eclipse 2010: Exclusive live webcast ... http://is.gd/6fmys
NASA:: Solar eclipse path .. http://ping.fm/0bByk
IMD's Weather forecast for Solar Eclipse on 15-Jan-2010 .. http://ping.fm/Umfxi
NEVER, NEVER, NEVER look through a telescope or binoculars at the Sun or a solar eclipse ... http://is.gd/6ePLV
The Kite Festival of Gujarat, in Pictures!... http://is.gd/6ePeS
Hues of 34 nations dot Ahmedabad skies in kite festival ... http://is.gd/6eOXQ
'One sky, one earth, one family' on January 16 and 17 at Panambur beach, Mangalore .. http://is.gd/6eOTk
Makar Sankranti today, or the Kite Festival, marks the end of winter and the onset of spring ... http://is.gd/6eOLs
Rare eclipse of the sun in Uganda tomorrow ... http://is.gd/6eOwP .. India Report >> http://ping.fm/ESoLd
Africa and Asia are in for a cosmic ring of fire ... http://is.gd/6eOow ... India Report .. http://ping.fm/ZtYuq
Over 800 tourists from india to chase annular solar eclipse ... http://is.gd/6eOcY ... report .. http://ping.fm/TAQ4t
Solar eclipse: How will your dog, cat and pigeon react? ... http://is.gd/6eM0B
Largest religious festival on Earth under way in India under very cold weather .. http://is.gd/6eKLS
Western Disturbance giving COLD short drizzle for Delhi .. http://is.gd/6eKxf ... Photo .. http://ping.fm/2K0r3
Cold wave sweeps across S'rashtra-Kutch ... http://is.gd/6eKiC
Slow disaster :: Cold wave in northern India claims over 326 lives ... http://is.gd/6eKfE
http://ping.fm/RTQ6s ... This circulation over Bay will bring more Moist Easterly waves into Bay and eventually showers along coast.
Latest analysis shows another low level circulation over south-east Bay .. http://ping.fm/t1Q3d
Region north-west of Chennai got some isolated medium showers on morning of 13-Jan.. http://yfrog.com/3gcp6g
Medium to Heavy showers heading for central & South Coast of Tamilnadu in next 72hrs.. http://yfrog.com/1daw3p
Maximum temp. are below normal by 4-8°C over many parts of northwest, east and northeast India and some parts of central India and Gujarat
Temperature above normal by 3-4°C over parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu coasts.
Heavy showers predicted for Central & North Kerala coast.. http://yfrog.com/aufezp
Chennai - Morning's low temperature was 25.0°C (6:27am) .. WARM pongal morning.
Chennai - Again having a warm & humid day , 30.1°C (12:39pm) with good low cloud formation.. More local showers possible till Sunday(17-Jan)
Chennai & Tamilnadu .. *** Happy Pongal ***
Heavy showers continued over Lakshadweep islands on 12-Jan-10.
Showers on 12-Jan-10 over south Western Ghats .. Idukki, Thenkasi (Tirunelveli dt) 2 CM
Karnataka showers till morning of 13-Jan-10.. Bellary recorded a heavy rainfall of 7 centimetres
Past 2 days showers over Karnataka & Maharastra is now over Orissa and fast vanishing .. http://yfrog.com/35p2jj

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Heavy Snow in Eastern China



Some 2 million schoolchildren in the Beijing region enjoyed an extra day off at New Year’s in January 2010 while authorities put some 300,000 people to work clearing streets. Up to 30 centimeters (12 inches) of snow fell on the capital city of Beijing and nearby port city of Tianjin, closing schools, clogging roads, and canceling flights. Although not as bad as the 2008 freeze that ruined travel plans for millions of Chinese trying to visit family for the lunar new year, this snowstorm was described as the heaviest snow to fall on Beijing in almost 60 years.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image on January 4, 2010. Snow cover encircles Bo Hai and extends to the north and west of that water body. Snow also covers Beijing, Tianjin, and a constellation of smaller settlements. The large cities leave big gray splotches on the blanket of snow, and the smaller cities make small gray dots. Snow caps the mountains north and west of Beijing, but the snow cover gradually fades southwest of Beijing and Tianjin. Cloud streets—clouds arranged in neat rows—similar to those observed over Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes float over Bo Hai.
Unlike the deep freeze of 2008, this storm was not expected to cause weeks-long fuel shortages for northern China, although disruptions to transportation and damage to greenhouses were expected to raise food prices. Temperatures in Beijing were expected to fall to -18 degrees Celsius (-0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) on the night of January 5, 2010, and some of the northernmost parts of China might experience temperatures as low as -32 degrees Celsius (-25.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the following morning

Winter Temperatures and the Arctic Oscillation



If you live nearly anywhere in North America, Europe, or Asia, it’s no news that December 2009 and early January 2010 were cold. This image illustrates how cold December was compared to the average of temperatures recorded in December between 2000 and 2008. Blue points to colder than average land surface temperatures, while red indicates warmer temperatures. Much of the Northern Hemisphere experienced cold land surface temperatures, but the Arctic was exceptionally warm. This weather pattern is a tale-tell sign of the Arctic Oscillation.
The Arctic Oscillation is a climate pattern that influences winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. It is defined by the pressure difference between air at mid-latitudes (around 45 degrees North, about the latitude of Montreal, Canada or Bordeaux, France) and air over the Arctic. A low-pressure air mass usually dominates the Arctic, and while higher pressure air sits over the mid-latitudes. This pressure difference generates winds that confine extremely cold air to the Arctic. Sometimes, the pressure systems weaken, decreasing the pressure difference between the Arctic and midlatitudes and allowing chilly Arctic air to slide south while warmer air creeps north. A weaker-than-normal Arctic Oscillation is said to be negative. When the pressure systems are strong, the Arctic Oscillation is positive.
Throughout December 2009, the North Atlantic Oscillation was strongly negative, said the National Weather Service. This image shows the impact of the negative Arctic Oscillation on land surface temperatures throughout the Northern Hemisphere as observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Cold Arctic air chilled the land surface at midlatitudes, while Arctic land, such as Greenland and Alaska, was much warmer than usual.

Currents Collide and Coastal Waters Bloom off Patagonia



Located over the continental shelf of southeastern South America is one of the world’s most productive and complex marine ecosystems. Covering about 1.2 million square kilometers (4.6 million square miles) of coastal waters, the Patagonia Large Marine Ecosystem stretches from the Rio de le Plata (a wide estuary at the mouth of the ParanĂ¡ River) to the southern tip of the continent.
In November 2009, as summer approached in the Southern Hemisphere, the foundation of the ecosystem’s food web—plant-like microorganisms called phytoplankton—bloomed expansively, brightening the waters with living ribbons of color. The image on the left shows the monthly average chlorophyll concentration in milligrams per cubic meter of water. High chlorophyll concentrations (yellow) mean large populations of phytoplankton, which use chlorophyll and other pigments to capture sunlight for photosynthesis.
The sea surface temperature image (right) reveals one of the reasons for the region’s productivity: the convergence of two wind-driven ocean currents. The warm, salty Brazil Current meanders south over the continental shelf, where it meets the cold, less-salty Falklands/Malvinas Current, a north-flowing branch off the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
In the spring and summer, the convergence zone occurs at about the latitude of the Rio de la Plata, which is where it seems to be based on the water temperatures shown in the sea surface temperature image. Blues and purples (cooler water) dominate the image south of the estuary, while pinks and yellows (warmer water) dominate the image north of there.
The convergence of two water masses of different temperatures and saltiness enhances mixing of the water, both vertically and horizontally. Vertical mixing brings nutrient-rich water up from deeper in the ocean, restocking surface waters.

These images are made from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite in November 2009. Aqua has been collecting data on the ecological and physical state of the ocean since its launch in 2002. Monthly maps of chlorophyll and sea surface temperature from Aqua are available in Global Maps on the Earth Observatory.

Southerly showers move into interior peninsula

Rain bands from a prevailing easterly wave over peninsula were now being propagated north-northeast as overnight showers wetted many places over Lakshadweep and a few places over north interior Karnataka.

Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, according to an update from the Chennai Regional Met Centre.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers would occur at many places over Telangana and at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Lakshadweep and Karnataka. Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala.

Meanwhile, there has been some respite from the ultra low night temperatures in the north and northwest as an incoming westerly trough began exerting influence over regional weather.

Minimum temperatures were below normal by only 2 to 4 deg Celsius over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains on Monday night, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

They were even above normal by 4 to 6 deg Celsius over most parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh, which constitute the gateway for the westerly trough. The lowest minimum over the plains of the country was 2.2 deg Celsius recorded at Amritsar in Punjab.

But maximum temperatures continued to wallow below normal by 8 to 12 deg Celsius over most parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, which lay farther downstream of the westerly system.

Calming influence

Compared to this, the proximity to the approaching system had its calming influence on north Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh where the maximum were only 4 to 6 deg below normal.

They were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over some parts of interior Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch due to the confluence of moisture-bearing winds from the south and the west.

Fog conditions were prevailing over many parts of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and west Assam through Monday night and Tuesday morning. Outlook until Friday spoke about the possibility of fog/dense fog in the morning towards the east of the plains, mainly over parts of east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, during the next 24 hours (Wednesday).


Thereafter, its density and duration may decrease. Cold day conditions are expected to occur over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the next three days.

Minimum temperatures over northwest India will increase by 2 to 3 deg Celsius during the next 24 hours but could fall thereafter with the warmth of the westerly trough moving away to the east.

Scattered to fairly widespread rain or snow has been forecast over the western Himalayan region during next two days. Scattered rainfall is likely over parts of the plains of northwest and adjoining central India until Thursday.

Rain for Northwest

The US Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) maintained its outlook for a wave of scattered peninsular rains propagating north-northeast to cover the entire peninsula during January 12 to 19.

The following week (January 20 to 28) is forecast to bring about widespread to fairly widespread rainfall over the entire north, northwest, east and northeast India, including parts of central India but possibly excluding Gujarat.

This would be brought about by repeat western disturbances invading northwest India with rain-making troughs in tow, presumably remainder waves from snow storms hitting western Europe and downstream central Asia and West Asia.

Fog's intensity may recede

The density and duration of seasonal fog over the Indo-Gangetic plains may recede from Wednesday as the region comes under the influence of a westerly trough and associated change in wind direction.

The colder north to northwesterlies would get replaced by warmer westerlies to southwesterlies as the system rolls in across the border on Wednesday.

It is likely that a secondary circulation may get formed over the north-west as the westerlies sweep north Arabian Sea and mop up available moisture.

This moisture is likely to emptied as rain over the plains even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) saw the prospects of confluence of westerly and easterly winds over central India. This could add to the instability of atmospheric conditions and associated weather.

The trough in the westerlies is seen affecting northwest India on Wednesday and Thursday, the IMD said. It saw fog to dense fog conditions prevailing in the morning over parts of Indo-Gangetic plains during the next 24 hours.

Cold day conditions (with lower maximum day temperatures) will occur over parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh during the next two days.

The warm westerly system will cause minimum temperatures also to increase by 2 to 4 deg Celsius during this period, leading to abatement of cold wave conditions.

The impact of the westerly system would be the most over the windward side of the western Himalayan region since the air would be made to rise against the mountain heights, cool and be brought down as either rain or snow.


The IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread rain or snow over the western Himalayan region mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered rainfall is likely over parts of plains of the northwest and adjoining central India during this phase.

On Sunday, the minimum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, west Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The lowest minimum temperature of 1.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Amritsar on Sunday night. Cold wave conditions have been prevailing over isolated pockets of west Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The maximum temperatures were below normal by 7 to 11°C over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh and by 4 to 6 deg Celsius over many parts of north Rajasthan, Bihar and some parts of northwest Madhya Pradesh.

In this manner, cold day conditions prevailed over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

But the westerly system will keep moving to the east across the plains, bringing the ‘steaming head' marked by lower pressure and ascending air ahead to drop some rain over east and northeast India. In the process, it might also run into the easterly flows straying into east and central India.

Cold northwesterlies would promptly fill the region vacated by the westerly system and once again lower the mercury level progressively over north and northwest India.

The IMD has forecast a fall in minimum temperatures over northwest, central and east India until January 16 up to which forecasts were available.

Meanwhile, an easterly wave has been affecting south peninsular India. Rainfall has occurred at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

Isolated rainfall was reported from interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, interior Karnataka and coastal Andhra Pradesh, an update from the Chennai Met Centre said.

Scattered rainfall may occur over parts of south peninsular India during the next three days, the IMD said, which is in agreement with the outlook of international models.

The Chennai Met Centre has forecast rain or thundershowers at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and coastal Karnataka over the next two days. Isolated rain or thundershowers could occur over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and interior Karnataka.
As Cold Spell Grips The Planet, Millions Pray For Global Warming .. http://is.gd/6aFbY
Chennai - Humidity.. 70% now 11:12am
Chennai - Going to be a WARM day again with HIGH humidity, already temperature has touched 30.6°C (10:15am)
Chennai - Now 11:10am, the sea breeze has set in and has pushed/cleared the smoggy skies over chennai.. Its clear now.
Chennai - A smoggy morning to start with along with mild drizzles at around 5:30am
American astronomer chasing his 50th solar eclipse in Kanyakumari ... http://is.gd/6aEfy
visit Himachal Pradesh to catch the glimpse of the rare celestial spectacle .. http://is.gd/6aE7Q
Big Haiti quake topples buildings, many casualties ... http://is.gd/6aqD5
RT @sanscoob: Awful smog here in Chennai. It's so acrid it comes inside the house and burns the eyes! I hate bogi!
http://ping.fm/lepSw ... Rains has started pushing well into Chatisgarh as well.
Satellite shows, the Moisture moving inland from Arabian sea via Coastal Karnataka .. http://ping.fm/VSA3I
RT @dj_ghosh: In flt to Delhi delayed for 2hrs. Low visibility in Chennai coz of Fog.while Delhi looks clear as per captn, beat tht @BDUTT@sardesairajdeep
RT @VishnuSreek: haha..its back..chennai heat is back !! droplets of sweat on forehead is again gonna adore me -whenever, where ever ...!!
RT @mubeen: chennai this morning is smogged out!
RT @nramaiah: MOst of the flight from Chennai delayed due to poor visibility
RT @pprakash: Nature have created it's own smoke so people in Chennai please don't burn anything for Bogi & drive those beauty out...
Chennai - A Foggy .. sorry.. a "Smoky" morning... Today, celebrating "Boggy" or Destroying "Environment/Atmosphere" ..??

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Rainfall till morning of 12-Jan:: Amini Divi and Rabkhavi (Bagalkote dt) 3 cm
More showers for Karnataka & Maharastra in next 24hrs .. http://yfrog.com/auvgpp
A weak Western Disturbance will set in over Punjab, Haryana in next 24 hrs .. http://yfrog.com/auvgpp
Gulf of mannar & South Kerala is active again .. while BAY is totally clear .. http://ping.fm/aF6Yb
North coastal Tamilnadu may be in for some showers on 13-Jan-10 .. http://ping.fm/WoUHM
Heavy shower afternoon for Lakshadweep, Coastal & North Karnataka, .. http://ping.fm/Ag8WO
A good moist Easterly wave will be over Tamilnadu coast coming weekend (16,17-Jan... http://ping.fm/42uQH
Analysis shows a minor LOW pressure system nearing Tamilnadu coast .. http://ping.fm/u2qia
Chennai - All thru the day was warm & very humid ... and with very good cloud formation.
Chennai - All signs now and so far for past 2 days, suggests a WET day ahead before 17-Jan-10
Chennai - Having a clear atmosphere, high humidity & good cloud formations continue .. recorded a high of 30.3°C (11:18am).
Next 40 years key for climate change: study ... http://is.gd/671j5
Weather-based crop insurance to be introduced .. http://is.gd/671gG
A good WEstern Disturbance will move across over Haryana, Punjab, Himachal & Uttarakand within next 48 hrs.. http://yfrog.com/1yr9fp
Heavy showers predicted for East Maharastra, Orissa & North Andhra in 48 hrs.. http://yfrog.com/1yr9fp
Present showers over North Karnataka will move across in North-east direction over Maharstra in next 48 hrs .. http://yfrog.com/1yr9fp
Very heavy showers overnight over North Lakshadweep islands and into North Karnataka .. http://ping.fm/PZYC0
Chennai - Morning low temperature was 24.7°C (5:30am) .. a warm morning for this time of year, while whole of North India is COLD.
Chennai - Might get one or two localized shower before Sunday, 16-Jan-10
Chennai - Now 9:40am, also having good low cloud formation & getting HOT and humid.
Chennai - All thru yesterday had some good Low cloud formation and continued well into midnight.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Heavy showers for Kanyakumari & Tirunelveli districts of Tamilnadu

Rainfall occurred at a few places over Coastal Tamil Nadu and Coastal Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred Interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep and Dry weather prevailed over Rayalaseema, Telangana.

Manimuthar (Tirunelveli dt) recorded heavy rainfall of 8 Centimetres.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:

Radhapuram (Tirunelveli dt) and Chettikulam (Perambalur dt) 6 each, Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli dt), Kanyakumari, Vellore and Jagalbet (Uttara Kannada dt) 5 each, Sathankulam (Tuticorin dt), Padalur (Perambalur dt) and Araku Valley (Visakapatnam dt) 4 each, Muthupet (Tiruvarur dt), Srivaikuntam (Tuticorin dt), Mylaudy, Nagerkoil (both Kanyakumari dt), Avanigadda (Krishna dt), Banavasi (Uttara Kannada dt), Linganamakki (Shimoga dt), Lakkavalli (Chikmagalur dt) and Neyyattinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt) 3 each, Mudukur (Thanjavur dt), Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt), Boothapandi, Kuzhithurai, Pechiparai, Thuckalay (all Kanyakumari dt), Tyagarthi, Humchadakatte (both Shimoga dt) and Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt) 2 each and Palayamkottai, Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai dt), Gudiyatham (Vellore dt), Tiruchirapalli Airport, Periyakulam (Theni dt), Tenkasi (Tirunelveli dt), Napoklu (Kodagu dt), Talaguppa (Shimoga dt), Agumbe, Jayapura , Balehonnur (both Chikmagalur dt) and Thiruvananthapuram Airport 1 each.
Heavy showers in kanyakumari & Tirunelveli districts on 10-Jan.. Mylaudy, Nagerkoil (both Kanyakumari dt) 3 cm
Heavy showers in kanyakumari & Tirunelveli districts on 10-Jan.. Manimuthar (Tirunelveli dt) 8, Radhapuram (Tirunelveli dt) 6 cm
No marked changes in cloud formation across India, Arabian sea & Bay .. latest at 6:30pm.. http://ping.fm/sgyqr
What is Western Disturbance ??? .. http://is.gd/64avF
All India Summar Monsoon Rainfall AND Farmers ..??? ... http://is.gd/64arz
Predicting weather is a NOT a easy job ... http://is.gd/64anS
On Jan 15, watch the ring of fire ... http://is.gd/64azt
Top 14 Wettest places in India ... http://is.gd/64ajE
Make your own Solar Panels .. visit http://ping.fm/AeT3E

Top 14 Wettest places in India

Top 14 Wettest places in India (in cm)
——————————-
1. Mawsynram – Meghalaya – 1141
2. Cherrapunji – Meghalaya – 1087
3. Agumbe – Karnataka – 828
4. Amboli – Maharashtra – 748
5. Mahabaleshwar – Maharashtra – 623
6. Gaganbawada – Maharastra – 621
7. Bhagamandala – Karnataka – 603
8. Pullingoth – Karnataka – 594
9. Neriamangalam – Kerala – 588
10.Buxa – West Bengal – 532
11.Denning – Tripura – 532
12.Matheran -Maharastra – 517
13.Peermade – Kerala – 517
14.Makut – Karnataka – 506


Wow atlast i got all the 14 places in India which receives rainfall above 500 cm
Posted by "Pradeep" for Indianweatherman.com

Predicting weather is a NOT a easy job

Throughout the globe observations are taken at three hours interval starting from 0000 [hrs UTC]. There are different charts that are prepared and based on the charts [1] High & Low pressure are plotted [2] prevailing winds direction and speed are noted [3] and other meteorological and basic weather parameters like surface air temperature, rainfall etc are incorporated in surface chart. Later this chart is being analysed. Similarly upper air charts are also plotted analysed. Then the meteorological parameters are fed into models which uses dynamical equations, hydro static equations and the equations of motions and climatology of the region to evoluvate weather.The model out put is used for forcast.Then based on their experience and based on the climatology of a place a forcast is evolved. However some time, alas, whether parameters drastically change [especially in tropical areas] amd of course the result also varies. (You are right.)
Predicting weather is a NOT a easy job.

Posted by Mr. Anonymous for Indianweatherman.com

All India Summar Monsoon Rainfall AND Farmers ..???

Farmers mainly depend on the timely forecast on RAIN. All India Summar Monsoon Rainfall [AISMR] is a major rainy season for entire India except Tamilnadu. However the vagaries of monsoon in time and space affects mainly agriculturalists. A simple solution is to have more dependentable raingauges in all locations at an interval of say 10km [i.e roughly one raingauge for every 250 square km]. This will help identify rainfall pattern of a patricular region say taluk wise. Taluk level rainfall summary, even if possible to block level, will help enumurate drough and flood in a precise manner. Long term irrigation plans based on the taluk / block level rainfall data will be more realistic. This will help farmers too. Irrigation and agricultural stragies can be planned on the rainfall summary. Precise drough / flood affected locations can be identified. In real practise each state government is maintaining atlest one raingauge st taluk level. No taluk level rainfall summary is arrived at by any taluk or district level administration in India. Of course IMD is disseminating district level rainfall summary. But atleast taluk level rainfall summary will be more useful. Since district some time may spread to different climatological zones at certain places and at certain time the district level summary may not reflect realistic rainfall distribution.
Posted by Mr. Anonymous

Western Disturbance

The weather system popularly known as Western Disturbance (WD) affects
day to day weather of northwest India during the winter season. The approach of WD is usually associated with cloudy sky, rise in night temperatures and precipitation on some occasions. In the rear of the system, clear sky and cold wave conditions are the common weather phenomenon over the Indo-Gangetic plains. On some occasions, dense fog and cold day conditions is also a common phenomenon over this region. Such stable weather conditions sometimes continue till another WD affect the region.
This January, a WD caused light to moderate precipitation at many places
over northwest India mainly on 2nd and 3rd. Thereafter due to the favourable conditions of moisture, temperature and winds, dense fog is prevailing over most parts of Indo-Gangetic plains except on 6th and 7th when the density and duration of fog was lower due to strong surface winds. Cold day conditions prevailed over Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where the maximum temperatures fell below 16° C. Delhi also experienced dense fog and cold day
conditions during this period. The lowest maximum temperature of 12.1° C was recorded on 8th January 2010 which was 9.0° C below normal. However, such extreme cold weather conditions are not very uncommon during January. In the recent past, Delhi recorded the maximum temperature of 12.1° C on 4th January 1980, 11.6° C on 10th January 1999, 12.4° on 5th January 2001, 11.2° C on 1st January 2003, and 12.4° C on 1st January 2004.
FORECAST:
Fog/Shallow fog conditions are likely to prevail during next 1-2 days over
Indo-Gangetic plains.
The latest meteorological analysis suggests that a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect northwest India on 12th and 13th January. It will cause fairly widespread snowfall over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Light rainfall at a few places would also occur over plains of Rajasthan, Punjab,Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. In view of obscured sky conditions due to lifted fog/low clouds, cold day conditions may continue. Dense fog conditions may reappear over Indo-Gangetic plains after 14th provided wind remains favourable.
In addition, due to confluence/merger of winds, light to moderate rainfall is also likely over parts of central and east India during 11th to 13th January.
Courtsey :IMD & Mr. Anonymous

On Jan 15, watch the ring of fire

In a week, a rare celestial event will mesmerise skygazers in southern Tamil Nadu and parts of Kerala. A ring of fire will adorn the afternoon sky

over Dhanushkodi near Rameswaram, Thiruvananthapuram, Tirunelveli, Nagercoil, Kanyakumari, Madurai, Thanjavur and Nagapattinam for 10 minutes on January 15, making it the first annular solar eclipse to be seen from India in 45 years. The rest of India will have a partial sighting.

An annular solar eclipse happens when the disc of the moon covers the central part of the sun, leaving only a ring-like peripheral region visible from some parts of the earth. This happens when the earth comes closest to the sun while the moon is at its farthest position in orbit. In such a situation, the disc of the moon cannot completely cover the sun's surface and a fiery ring is visible beyond the moon's edge. The last time an annular eclipse was viewed from India was on November 23, 1965. The next one will be on December 26, 2019.

The track of annularity, or the patch of land from where this celestial event can be viewed, will start from Africa and cross the Indian Ocean to end at Shandong Peninsula in China. "The temple town of Rameswaram will lie very close to the central line and the annularity there can be seen for a duration of 10 minutes and 7 seconds starting at 1.17 pm and ending at 1.25 pm. This is a very long period given the average durations of annular eclipses," said M P Birla Planetarium director (research & academic) Debi Prosad Duari.
On Jan 15, a rare celestial event will mesmerise skygazers in southern Tamil Nadu and parts of Kerala .. http://is.gd/63odc
SMS weather alerts soon, straight from IMD ... http://is.gd/63o6K
Coastal Karnataka may get showers after 4 pm today .. http://ping.fm/QRysP
Low level circulation .. http://ping.fm/1LSHc ... and the cloud formation associated with it .. http://ping.fm/h9YBu
Analysis on 11-Jan shows:: A small low level circulation over south-central Bay ,, east-south-east of Chennai... http://ping.fm/jvU6k
Chennai - A new weather front moving in from Bay and it'll stay till 17-jan-10... this weather front might produce scattered medium showers.
Chennai - Unusually HOT & Sultry day... 30.2°C (11:20am)... with Good low cloud formation & with Deep blue skies.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

The cold wave will extend its tentacles upto Orissa from 18-Jan to 26-Jan .. http://yfrog.com/aus6zp
http://ping.fm/3ytj9 ... Latest Temperature map for India.. shows.. Entire North-west & North India is reeling under cold conditions.
Cold wave attributed to global warming .. http://is.gd/61dmm
Cold wave spell continues in Northern India .. http://is.gd/61d5l
Delhi has another cold day, max. temp. at 12.6 degrees C .. http://is.gd/61cW8
More Easterlies to affect Tamilnadu coast from 15-Jan-10 & bring more showers .. http://ping.fm/FoW6K
Today the High pressure & Anti cyclone is over Orissa & over north-west Bay .. http://ping.fm/bWGxL
Analysis shows:: The low level circulation just west of Trivandrum and extends upto Lakshadweep .. http://ping.fm/733Kp
Heavy showers over southern tip of Kerala & Tamilnadu, vanished after 2pm.. Sat. shot at 11pm, shows a clear south. http://ping.fm/K3sE9
A trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies is likely to affect northwest India from 12th onwards.
Chennai - Still 11:14pm, its not cold.. 25.6°C...and will touch a low of 22 deg... Today morning low was.. 21.6°C (12:46am)
Chennai - A warm day today .. 30.4°C (1:38pm)
Early morning very heavy shower on 10-Jan-10:: Thiruvananthapuram 13 and Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt) 7 CM each
A LOW level cyclonic circulation lay over coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining south-west Bay of Bengal.
Jan-16 to 24:: Cold wave conditions predicted for Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal.

Severe cold wave spreads to central, eastern parts

India Meteorological Department (IMD) sees no significant change in minimum and maximum temperatures over north-west and central India over the next two to three days.

During the 24 hours ending Friday morning, severe cold wave conditions entrenched themselves over central and east India.

Severe cold wave conditions prevailed in some parts of Vidarbha while cold wave conditions prevailed in parts of Jharkhand and at isolated places in Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh and north Punjab.

COLD DAY
Cold day conditions were reported from Haryana and in remaining parts of Punjab as fog prevented the sun's heating to filter to ground.

Minimum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Orissa and interior Maharashtra.

The lowest minimum temperature of -0.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Amritsar during the last 24 hours. Dense fog conditions have been prevailing over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

Light northwesterly light winds were prevailing over Indo-Gangetic plains of north-west India in lower levels.

Forecast up to Monday warned of fog to dense fog in the morning over many parts of Indo-Gangetic plains. Cold wave conditions over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, interior Orissa and Vidarbha are seen sustaining during this period.

Cold day conditions would continue over parts of Punjab, Haryana and north Rajasthan, before abating.

RAINS FORECAST

Meanwhile, isolated to scattered rainfall activity is being forecast over parts of northwest and adjoining central India from Tuesday onwards in association with the arrival of a western disturbance featuring the deepest of the troughs seen so far during this season.

The steaming head of the system is characterised by lower pressure and ascending motion of air that in turn leads to precipitation. This would be the first time that a westerly system crossing in from the north-west is able to bring rains over the plains and adjoining central India.

According to the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction), the week ending January 15 would see the cold wave and occasional fog make their alternating appearance.

But the week that follows (January 16 to 24) would see the chill make a further dip into east India and adjoining east-central India. Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal are shown to come under the grip of bitter cold during this period.


Meanwhile in the south, the outlook for impact from an easterly wave and associated precipitation over the peninsula has been retained.

According to the Chennai Met Centre, isolated light rain has occurred over Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

Forecast until Sunday spoke about the possibility of rain or thundershowers at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. A cyclonic circulation lay over coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining south-west Bay of Bengal.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely to occur over interior Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh. An NCEP forecast said that the whole of the peninsula, north-northeastward from the west coast may get scattered rains over the next week.

The IMD forecast spoke about the possibility of scattered rainfall over south peninsular India until Wednesday, up to which forecasts were available.

Congregation of butterflies sighted in Wayanad


A rare and fascinating convergence of Dark Blue Tiger butterflies has been sighted in Kerala’s Wayanad district, a major biodiversity hot spot of the Nilgiri biosphere.

The congregation of the ‘winged jewels of nature’ was sighted in the Mullanpara hills, a patch of natural forests, adjacent to the Pookod lake, by a group of National Service Scheme (NSS) volunteers during a trekking expedition recently.

“We have sighted a host of Dark Blue Tiger and a few Malabar ravens roosting on the branches of shrubs on the Mullanpara hills”, Jose Mathew, NSS programme Coordinator from St Catherine’s Higher Secondary School at Payyampally, said.

Although the roosting was so common in many parts of the district a few years ago, it was a rare sighting nowadays, Mr. Mathew said.

“The congregation might be part of their hibernation after the post monsoon migration,” Mohammed Jafer, Scientist, Zoological Survey of India, Kozhikode told PTI.

The Kerala Forest Department sighted as many as 197 butterfly species in Wayanad district during a survey of the area.

Mr. Jafer said migratory path of mixed danine butterlies including Dark Blue Tiger (Tirumala Sepatentrionis), Blue Tiger (Tirumala Limniace), Common Crow (Euploea core) and Double Branded Crow (Euploea Sylvester), typically takes place from the South West to North East Direction during April-May and North East to South West direction during October or November.

Normally the migrations take place immediately after a shower (South West monsoon or North East monsoon), Mr. Jafer said.

The sighting of mass migration had not been reported elsewhere in Kerala over the last two years, he said.

However, massive migrations of butterflies have been reported in recent months from various parts of Kerala including from Parambikkulam, Athirappally, Chinnar, Aralam, Periyar, Kottiyoor forests and Wayanad, he added.