Monday, October 31, 2016

October 31, 2016 at 11:16PM

Sharp showers over chennai. Egmore 10:07pm, Madipakkam 10:30pm, Polichalur at 10:44pm got 8.4mm. #weather

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So far NE Monsoon is weak along Tamilnadu coast, N Tamilnadu and #Chennai.
Expected to be so during next 3 days !
Today till mid-morning, #Chennai suburbs, city experiences "scattered moderate / light rain".
Dry 2/3 days ahead !

5:30pm, Heavy scattered T showers again over S,SW Tamilnadu and into S Kerala ..

Till 8:30am today..
HEAVY rain over W,SW,S Tamilnadu.
Udumalpet, Vadipatti = 12cm
Pollachi = 11cm

Analysis show a strong easterlies has pushed into SE Bay and a weak low-level circulation seen over Andaman sea ...

GFS expects a WML or even a Depression from this present circulation over S-central Bay on 2-Nov ...

Towards Friday, GFS expects this upcoming circulation to become a Cyclone/Deep depression and track towards N Andhra / Odisha ! 
If "that" happens, most of Tamilnadu & Chennai will have DRY spell from 2-Nov to 7/8-Nov !

Meanwhile, scattered HEAVY T showers ahead for SW Karnataka, many zones of Kerala, W,SW,S-central,S Tamilnadu during next 36hrs...
For N,central,coastal Tamilnadu, Chennai and S,central Andhra .. morning / mid-morning / noon "moderate, scattered rain" expected on 1-Nov.

October 31, 2016 at 07:47AM

Chennai - 7:45am, nice showers with thunder over NNW,NW,W suburbs. #weather

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Sunday, October 30, 2016

October 30, 2016 at 07:57AM

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October 30, 2016 at 02:26AM

2:20am, zones of #Chennai getting first NE #monsoon showers. More widespread rain in 36hrs. #weather

from Instagram

Saturday, October 29, 2016

October 29, 2016 at 04:14AM

3:30am, Nellore getting smashed by heavy rains. #kyant renant. Happy #Diwali. #weather

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Friday, October 28, 2016

October 28, 2016 at 10:51PM

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October 28, 2016 at 10:45PM

On Diwali day evening a circulation expected along S,SE Tamilnadu. This'll initiate NEM showers along TN coast. #weather

from Instagram

October 28, 2016 at 10:35PM

In next 24hrs, this circulation will weaken to a Easterly trough along S Andhra, chennai, N TN. #weather

from Instagram

October 28, 2016 at 10:31PM

10:10pm, T showers seen along S-coast Andhra, around 150km NNE from #Chennai #weather

from Instagram

October 28, 2016 at 10:22PM

10pm, remnant of Kyant as a low-level circulation just NE of #Chennai #weather

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Thursday, October 27, 2016

12:40pm, Some more convective activity seen over weak #Kyant.

GFS expects the system #Kyant to drift close to Chennai on afternoon, Friday as a LOW...

Moderate rain to start along S-coast Andhra, #Chennai from afternoon of Friday. 

Kyant undergoing shear & dry air stress. Now a depression !

5:30am, Cyclone #Kyant is almost killed by Shear and Dry air. Still drifting WSW.
Convective activity is less. A D.Depression now .. 

S,central-coast Andhra and N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai can still have Rain on Friday.
Rain forecast for Friday & Diwali coming up around noon

#Kyant will undergo more weakening and "may" survive as a low-level circulation, LOW and reach up to S-coast Andhra, Chennai on Friday.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

October 26, 2016 at 11:19PM

#Kyant remnant! GFS continues to show a Low to come near to #Chennai on #friday . #weather

from Instagram

October 26, 2016 at 11:11PM

11pm, shear and dry air is taking toll over cyclone #kyant . weakening has started. #weather

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October 26, 2016 at 11:18AM

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October 26, 2016 at 07:08AM

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October 26, 2016 at 07:02AM

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October 26, 2016 at 06:50AM

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Cyclone Kyant is here

03B Cyclone is officially named as In past 12hrs, again it has tracked WSW, no further intensification observed ..

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

99B is now a Cyclone 03B and tracking towards Andhra !!

2:30pm, 99B has intensified into a Cyclone and now tracked as 03B.
It might get its name #Kyant before midnight..
03B, during past 12 hrs it has tracked West and then WSW.
Present position is plotted in map.
ADT analysis says pressure around 990mb ..

03B, Now ALL models suggest a #Diwali menace from Bay for zones from N-coast Tamilnadu, Chennai to central-coast Andhra ...  

Models also suggest a weakening of this Cyclone to depression after 48hrs while nearing Andhra coast due to Dry air from NW and high shear ! ... 
03B, already we can see DRY air from North #India is starting to entrain into  NW,W,SW quadrants of the system ...

Due to 03B Cyclone, As of now, on #Diwali day, 29-Oct, there's a 50% chance of Rain and Winds for S-coast Andhra and #Chennai.
Due to mid-level circulation over Lakshadweep .. scattered T showers possible for S,central Kerala and into S,SE Tamilnadu in next 30hrs.

October 25, 2016 at 07:08AM

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Monday, October 24, 2016

Sunday, October 23, 2016

October 23, 2016 at 06:21PM

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99B - Intensity and where it can move ?

99B is now a depression (according to IMD) and nearing Myanmar coast. 
But US Navy still plotting pressure around 1004mb ...
12pm, Most of convective activity is still concentrated over W,SW,NW quadrants of 99B.
T showers popping over Myanmar coast ...

99B - What next?
It'll track NE for 24hrs and then North or NNW into North Bay on 25-Oct.
As shear is low, it'll intensify to Cyclone.

For 99B..
GEFS expects the system to track NNW and crash into S Bangladesh...
HWRF model suggests or confused about the track "after 99B reaches Cyclone and drifts into N Bay" ...
UKMET model suggests a WSW drift after 99B reaches North Bay as a Cyclone ...

Why models are confused?
All because of the 2 ridges and the 99B is struck right in-between ...

Next 2 days, scattered T showers expected over central,N-central,W-ghats Kerala and into Nw,W,central,SE,central-coast Tamilnadu ...

Friday, October 21, 2016

Update on 99B and "Chennai & Tamilnadu may not witness NEM this October"

Typhoon #Haima has made landfall around noon today ...

Now focus shifts to 99B in Bay, at present in central Bay as a LOW ... Low level circulation is exposed with convective activity over West ...
9pm, IR shows still convective activity is over W,SW.
It's pull effect is giving T showers over Kerala and S,central,SE Tamilnadu ...

99B is expected to gain intensity slowly with an initial movement of NE towards Myanmar coast.
And take a N or NNW movement in next 2 days ...
99B in next 2 days is expected to move NE, with moderate intensification into a Depression !
Shear is less in its NE direction ! ... 

During next 2 days.
Scattered T showers over central,S Kerala.
T showers also for W,central,central-coast, SE,S Tamilnadu ... 

October 21, 2016 at 09:45PM

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October 21, 2016 at 09:07PM

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Thursday, October 20, 2016

Typhoon Haima, Bay - 99B and NE monsoon delay !

Typhoon #HAIMA is nearing China coast near to HongKong ... Landfall expected in next 18hrs .. .. 

This Typhoon has popped a LOW in our central Bay of Bengal as well, it is tracked as 99B ...
This 99B is trying to establish/consolidate even though the low-level wind gush is still happening from S Bay to that Typhoon ...
At present 99B is a LOW with pressure around 1004mb.
Expected movement is NE during next 2 days towards Myanmar coast !

99B, Models suggest a North or NW re-curve after nearing Myanmar coast ... this will even delay the easterlies "NE Monsoon" into SE Bay. 99B 's expected re-curve may not happen if it fizzles out along Myanmar coast along with Typhoon Haima over China !
Has to watch till 23-Oct.

During next 2 days, due to pull effect of 99B, Kerala can have SW Monsoon style showers and HEAVY T showers along W-ghats Kerala, Tamilnadu ...
During next 2 days, scattered T showers expected to pop over central,W,SE, S Tamilnadu !