Monday, October 23, 2017


Yesterday's rainfall activity was over coastal Tamilnadu and N Andhra.
Chennai Nungambakkam 21mm
Pondicherry 34
Cuddalore 54mm


Today, a low-level trough seen from NNE Bay to SW Bay... and it is expected to drop a circulation over S-central Bay in next 18hrs.
This trough is creating scattered T showers over central,SE,coastal Tamilnadu now, 2pm.

Another SW tilted trough at low-levels seen from W Bay to E Arabian sea (along Karnataka coast).
.. and this will pop scattered T showers ALL along from W,NW Karantaka to E,central,N Andhra in next 12hrs.

In next 30hrs, SW-central Bay is expected to drop a low-level circulation and a weak easterlies is expected to push into East Bay !  In next 30hrs, SE Arabian sea is also expected to pop a circulation.. this is #GoodNews for S Andhra & #Tamilnadu 's NE #Monsoon onset !!

So, NE #monsoon style rain ahead for S #Andhra coast, #Chennai , N-coast #Tamilnadu from late-evening of 24th to 27th.
On 25/26th October a weak NE #monsoon onset expected along S Andhra and N Tamilnadu.
A strong easterlies expected after 31st.

Sunday, October 22, 2017

October 21, 2017 at 11:26PM


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Saturday, October 21, 2017

October 21, 2017 at 08:17PM


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October 21, 2017 at 08:14PM


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October 21, 2017 at 08:06PM


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October 21, 2017 at 08:05PM


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October 21, 2017 at 08:04PM


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October 21, 2017 at 07:44PM


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October 21, 2017 at 07:31PM


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October 21, 2017 at 07:17PM


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October 21, 2017 at 07:15PM


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Tuesday, October 17, 2017



98B, still persists over central,W-central Bay as WML with pressure around 1001mb.
Less signs of intensification observed.
98B, 12:30pm Satellite IR shows convective activity concentrated over its W,NW,SW zones and less over S,E,NE.

The wind gush to W.Pacific from S Bay is not allowing 98B's S,SE quadrant to develop.. so very less chance of intensification expected !

What is going to be for 98B during next 2 days?
Take a N,NNW movement same as that of the W.Pacific Typhoon with less/NO intensification
98B, at present is in high shear zone, but the North of it into Bay is good.
So it can move North without hindrance !

#Alert
Next 36hrs, HEAVY rain activity expected along central,S #Kerala and into S-tip, W-ghats of #Tamilnadu
Wet #Diwali !

Coastal #Tamilnadu, #Chennai and S-coast #Andhra to remain CLOUDY with light rain from now till #Diwali (18th) morning and even till evening.

Monday, October 16, 2017

October 16, 2017 at 03:34PM



Central Bay LOW is now tracked as 98B... expected to concentrate to a Depression before evening of 17th.
A mini West movement expected! #iwm 

Regarding the track and intensity of 98B on 18th October... Due to 2 Typhoons over W Pacific, 98B may not become a Full cyclone.  Lots of wind & moisture from S,SE Bay is expected to gush into West Pacific to feed those 2 Typhoons.
This may hinder the intensity of 98B.
98B, next 36hrs it'll drift West and then ...?? is still a question.
Let's wait for it to become a Depression on 17th.


Next 24hrs, T showers expected to be concentrated from NW Karnataka to S Karnataka to N,N-central Tamilnadu.
#Bengaluru zone can get scattered moderate rain before Tuesday morning.

S-coast #Andhra and N-coast #Tamilnadu, #Chennai can get light / moderate rain with heavy cloud cover before morning of Tuesday.
#Chennai - 2pm, moderate / light rain can push into city from N/NNE in next 1hr.
Meanwhile, cloud cover and mild drizzles will continue.

#ALERT
central #Kerala is expected to get widespread rain in next 42hrs due to the pull affect of Bay 98B.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

October 15, 2017 at 04:51PM


The awaited LOW is here over central Bay. 
The LOW is over central Bay soon it'll be tracked.
Now, its time to check the intensity and track it'll move during next 3 days !



The central,W,NW,N Bay is having above normal Sea Surface Temperature and above 29 C... which is very good for Cyclone growth.
But in upper-level steering winds, there are some surprises.
The HIGH moving East from Middle-east is expected to steer our Bay system.
in this upper-level chart you can see the HIGH is now over middle-east and another over N-central Pacific.
The pacific HIGH is far away from our Bay system, so it may not influence the steering. 
On other hand, the middle-east HIGH is expected to push East up to West India in next 2 days and expected to take control of the steering !!
Here's the upper-level forecast chart for 17th evening, one, can see the HIGH is near West India.

This is the reason WHY, both GFS and ECMWF 's latest model run shows the "expected" bay Cyclone to make landfall along N coast #Andhra !!
Don't be surprised to see a central coast Andhra landfall forecast in next analysis run by both GFS & ECMWF !
Present Bay LOW is expected to grow into Depression in next 36hrs and expected to track WNW !!

Saturday, October 14, 2017


In 24hrs, Pull effect of Bay circulation, E Arabian sea circulation will give HEAVY rain for #Karnataka coast, #Kerala, S-tip Tamilnadu.
Next 3 days, there'll be heavy SW #monsoon style rain for many zones of #Kerala, W-ghats Kerala and W-ghats #Tamilnadu.

In 24hrs, more scattered T showers for Odisha, S chatisgarh into Telangana and N Andhra.
No let-up in T showers for the belt from S,SW,W Maharastra to S,central,E Karnataka into N,NW,N-central Tamilnadu during next 24hrs.


RT @andy_iyeng: 
1:30pm, A round of #light to #moderate #rains from VJN to RR Nagar & Mys Rd #Bengaluru https://t.co/mx1yuz9xdr
#Bengaluru - "More rain ahead for #saturday and #sunday"
No, let up till 16th.

#Chennai - "scattered" moderate or light rain expected after midnight today !
NO sign of NE #monsoon till 31-October !!

RT @lokeshpancholi:
1:50pm, Pune...Hinjewadi area thrashed right now http://pic.twitter.com/a3cd7IShC8  

RT @karthyke: 
1pm, Coimbatore now https://t.co/ckRxBI99fn

October 14, 2017 at 10:29AM

Friday, October 13, 2017

October 13, 2017 at 09:36PM


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October 13, 2017 at 08:45PM


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October 13, 2017 at 05:46PM

October 13, 2017 at 12:18PM

October 13, 2017 at 12:15PM


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October 13, 2017 at 11:16AM


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Thursday, October 12, 2017

October 12, 2017 at 05:21PM


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October 12, 2017 at 12:20PM

October 12, 2017 at 12:05PM


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October 12, 2017 at 12:03PM


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October 12, 2017 at 11:54AM


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October 12, 2017 at 10:48AM


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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

October 11, 2017 at 10:41PM


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October 11, 2017 at 10:38PM


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5pm, S central Tamilnadu T showers satellite Visible loop



5pm, 11-Oct, Satellite Visible loop of massive Thunderstorms over S-central Tamilnadu

October 11, 2017 at 05:30PM


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October 11, 2017 at 05:27PM


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October 11, 2017 at 05:25PM


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October 11, 2017 at 05:24PM


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October 11, 2017 at 05:20PM


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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

October 10, 2017 at 06:31PM


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These are the zones that is goin to be active during next 30hrs.
Circulation over W Bengal, Jharkhand and another over central Maharastra.
Today, next 24hrs, this zone here (Raichur, Ballari, Kadapa) is expected to get heavy T showers.

Here's the next 30hrs rainfall forecast.
HEAVY and widespread for N Bengal into Bihar.
Heavy for W,central,N Maharastra.

#Mumbai will have a heavy rain day on Wednesday starting from today late-evening.
4:30pm, already Showers seen over E,NE zones from city.

#Bengaluru - There's NO stopping of rainfall activity. Expect more today and next 2 days.
#Chennai - T showers expected again from Wednesday evening / night. Tonight again, showers may come close to W,SW suburbs.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GFS continue to show a strong circulation over N-central Bay on 17/18th.
ECMWF also starting to pick a circulation over that zone on 18th.

October 10, 2017 at 06:49AM

October 10, 2017 at 06:36AM


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Monday, October 09, 2017

October 09, 2017 at 06:52PM


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October 09, 2017 at 04:46PM


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How many circulations can you see in this low-level (850hpa) chart ??
Very active day ahead for entire peninsula !
The same scenario exists over mid-levels also! 

In next 42hrs, the Maharastra circulation is expected to drift into Coast of Maharastra .The E-India circulation to fizz out over E-central
Heavy rain ahead for most of W,coastal,central,S Maharastra due to the circulation during next 2 or 3 days.

GFS still forecasting a strong Circulation over N-central, East Bay on 18th, but ECMWF is not !

1:30pm, Due to circulation(s), Rain seen over S,central bengal, S,N Odisha, many popping over E,central Maharastra, S,central Chatisgarh

In next 24hrs, HEAVY widespread rain for S,central,W Bengal, S Odisha, S,central Chatisgarh, S,SE Madhyapradesh.

Scattered Heavy rain #alert for central,N,S,SW,W #Maharastra during next 42 hrs.
Heavy rain also expected over N,central,SW,W Andhra and adjoining E,S Karnataka in next 30hrs.
Scattered T showers also expected over N,central Tamilnadu before morning of Tuesday.

Sunday, October 08, 2017

October 08, 2017 at 10:13PM


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October 08, 2017 at 07:24AM


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October 08, 2017 at 08:17AM

October 07, 2017 at 11:27PM


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Saturday, October 07, 2017

October 07, 2017 at 07:31PM


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October 07, 2017 at 07:27PM


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Friday, October 06, 2017

October 06, 2017 at 08:23PM


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October 06, 2017 at 02:53PM


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Today, the surface-level circulation is near Odisha coast.
At low, mid-levels (850,700hpa) it can be seen as a Easterly trough near Odisha coast, N Bay. OR, it can be seen as East-West wind shear line from NW Bay to S Coast Karnataka.
The southern end is giving rains to #Kerala #Now !

During next 3 days, this low,mid-level shear line is expected to persist and push West.
Expected to run from N Chatisgarh to coast Karnataka.


On surface-levels, LWD is expected along N Karnataka to W,S Andhra to N,S-central Tamilnadu on today and tomorrow evening ! 

Due to EW shear line drifting West into peninsula.
In next 2 days, Heavy, scattered rain for Odisha, Chatisgarh, E,S,SW,W,central Maharastra

Next 2 days, scattered moderate/heavy rain for N,NE,W,S Andhra into Telangana, #Hyderabad, NW,central,E,S Karnataka.
Yes, more rain ahead for #Bengaluru on today, saturday and Sunday.
For #Kerala, heavy rain for S,central-coast and W-ghats of Nilgiris and Idukky zones during next 48hrs.
Next 2 days, T shower activity will continue over NW,W,central,S-central, N,NE Tamilnadu.
#Chennai - Wind is more of from South.
Today, T showers expected to pop along W,SW,NW suburbs and less rain for central,coast zones of City

Thursday, October 05, 2017

October 05, 2017 at 04:13PM


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October 05, 2017 at 04:12PM


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October 05, 2017 at 02:24PM


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October 05, 2017 at 02:29PM

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

October 04, 2017 at 10:58PM

October 04, 2017 at 07:08PM


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October 04, 2017 at 04:27PM


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October 04, 2017 at 04:04PM

October 04, 2017 at 02:54PM


Today's surface charts shows, a persisting trough along Karnataka coast, trough along S,central coast Andhra to SE coast Tamilnadu. A low-level circulation also seen over East Bay NE of Andaman Islands.


During next 48 hrs, the East Bay circulation is expected to move NW towards Odisha coast. Both GFS, ECMWF is not expecting it to intensify. This East Bay circulation is expected to push into Odisha coast on Saturday / Sunday.

During next 2 days, the Andhra coast weak trough, circulation is expected to push into Andhra.
Karnataka coast trough is expected to vanish.

Before noon of 5-Oct..
Scattered moderate to heavy T showers for W,NW,central,S,E Karnataka.
Today again T showers will pop over Odisha, adjoining Jharkhand and N,NE,central Andhra.
Today also T showers will pop over NW,N,N-central Tamilnadu, #Chennai and into S Andhra.
1:45pm, Already we can see pops !


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


We can see the ITCZ is slowly moving South along with Sun .. meaning GoodBye to SW #Monsoon over N,central,NW #India.
The upper-level humidity chart also suggests DRY conditions over N,NW,central,W #India
SW #Monsoon has said #GoodBye to those zones !