Today morning analysis show that yesterday's circulation over S,S-W Bay is still elongated from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf Mannar).
At 5:30pm, the system is tracked at location 4.6 N , 77.7 E.
In next 24 or 36 hrs, the circulation is expected to consolidate along S,S-W Bay near S-E Srilanka (based on COLA and IMD models).
Both COLA and IMD GFS models suggests that the circulation will get organized over S,S-W Bay on 7-May and predicts that it'll develop into a Cyclone on 10-May, pretty much over the same location.
Latest NOGAPS model also predicts similar to COLA model... After 10 / 11-May, the Cyclone is expected to move N-N-W into Bay.
NOGAPS predicts the Cyclone to make landfall over N.Tamilnadu and S.Andhra on 12-May