"91B" - Disorganized now ! Will it become a Cyclone over Bay ?

Today morning analysis show that yesterday's circulation over S,S-W Bay is still elongated from East (S,S-E Bay) to West (Gulf Mannar).

In next 24 or 36 hrs, the circulation is expected to consolidate along S,S-W Bay near S-E Srilanka (based on COLA and IMD models).

At 5:30pm, the system is tracked at location 4.6 N , 77.7 E.

Both COLA and IMD GFS models suggests that the circulation will get organized over S,S-W Bay on 7-May and predicts that it'll develop into a Cyclone on 10-May, pretty much over the same location.

Latest NOGAPS model also predicts similar to COLA model... After 10 / 11-May, the Cyclone is expected to move N-N-W into Bay.

NOGAPS predicts the Cyclone to make landfall over N.Tamilnadu and S.Andhra on 12-May

Present W.D affecting Kashmir is expected to move away in next 24hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/22H0h 

Present rain over Kashmir will vanish or reduce in 24hrs.. but some odd rain to continue till Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/22H2C 

Today as well the trough extending south from S.Bihar, N.Chatisgarh upto S.Karnataka seen ... http://ow.ly/i/22GA9 

The North-South trough from Bihar to S.Karnataka is expected to persist till 7-May !

T.showers along Kerala, S.Tamilnadu to continue till Tuesday and expected to reduce or Vanish if the Bay Cyclone materializes ..!

Isolated T.showers may pop over N.Karnataka, W,N-W,N-E Andhra during next 2 days... http://ow.ly/i/22GKE 

Weak circulation over North N-E states persists and expected to last another 2 days .

Some isolated T.showers will pop over Odisha and over Jharkand as well during next 2 days.!

Scattered T.showers is expected to push into N,E,central,S-E Bengal during next 3 days ... http://ow.ly/i/22GTa 

No reduction in rain for N-E states seen during next 4 days ... Heavy and scattered T.showers expected... http://ow.ly/i/22GWu 

Today, a weak circulation is seen over Gulf Mannar ... as an extension to S,S-W Bay circulation ... http://ow.ly/i/22Gga 

7pm, Due to Gulf Mannar circulation... cloud activity seen over Srilanka and over N.Gulf Mannar and S-E Arabian sea. http://ow.ly/i/22GnP 

7pm, Severe T.showers seen along Odisha and into S.Bengal.. T.showers also seen over S-W, W.Karnataka... http://ow.ly/i/22GnP

7pm, Showers also seen over central N-E states and over Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/i/22GnP

Bay of Bengal Low...where is it headed ?? Three estimates covering all International Models thrown out, and 4th New route Track seems to be forming...Lets see !...Where Now ? Arabian Sea..Or due West ?

Chances of re _curving back to Bay possibility..45%

from vagaries

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 2.00pm Sunny, hot and humid.. 35- 25C Formation of clouds.. a pic http://t.co/9LSwFQEiHR