Wednesday, July 01, 2015

How is the South West Monsoon going to behave in July ?

1. MJO: the current phase of very weak MJO in our seas is prevelent, and with a slight "blip" in the Northern region seen thru OLR images, we see the Northern Bay showing signs of of a UAC formation soon. UAC may effect Eastern States of India and the NE States with precipitation in first week of July.
Rains increasing in Kolkata from Sunday 5th.
But the weak MJO phase ( Though gradually moving out of the very weak phase) in the Southern seas continues  and without any Eastward propagation for the next 10-12 days.
Long Term forecasts show the MJO "improving", that is first getting "Neutral" by around 14th July, and then gradually strengthening after 17th July.
As a result, we have a strong MJO wave in the Western pacific. We may even see a typhoon form in the Western Pacific next week.

2.El Nino: This event has strengthened in the last 15 days. SOI is at -9.0. and the Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature indices are more than 1 °C above average for the sixth consecutive week.

3. The Monsoon axis remains North of its normal position till the 8th at least.Rains expected in Eastern U.P, Bihar and Sikkim and Himalayan W.Bengal next week.

4. A WD moves into the Northern Sub Continent around 6th July. This would merge with the Western end of the Monsoon axis and bring good precipitation to Northern Pakistan and Northern India.

5. Next 8-10 days, Precipitation remains lower than normal in the Peninsula, Western Region, Central Region, NW region of India. Also in Central and Southern Pakistan rains will be below normal. Monsoon may move into remaining Sindh and Pakistan after 7th/8th July.

From vagaries...

July 01, 2015 at 02:12PM

1:21pm, Light rain in Belgaum west. #weather

from Instagram

July 01, 2015 at 11:12AM

10:40am, Dombivli - a 5 min sharp shower. #weather

from Instagram
N Bay is expected to remain silent till 4-Jul. An upper-level circulation expected over N Bay on 4-Jul...

No Bay low till 3/4-July, W,S-W coast will be get less rain.

As of 5:30pm analysis, the low,mid-level circulation is seen over central Uttarpradesh ...
This circulation is expected to persist in this same zone and fizzle out in next 36 / 42hrs.

Today, in upper-level (500hpa) the circulation seen over central U.P and its trough seen upto E Bay...
Another upper-level circulation seen along S-coast Maharastra and this is expected to fizzle out in 12hrs.
The upper-level circulation from central U.P to E Bay is expected to give more wet spells for E,S-E India during next 36hrs.

11:30pm, Less rain seen along W,S-W coast, except Karnataka coast and Kerala, but E-central,S-E India is active ..

During next 48hrs, less rain expected along W,S-W coast except along Karnataka coast.

During next 24hrs... scattered heavy, moderate rain expected from W,N-W Madhyapradesh to N,central chatisgarh, Jharkhand to S,W Bengal
In next 18hrs, heavy scattered rain also expected over E,N-E Maharastra, Telegana, N-E Andhra, S chatisgarh, Odisha ..
Most of the rain today is expected to be over South, Eastern end of monsoon axis.

Chennai - again going to be HOT till 3pm and a light / moderate scattered rain expected after 5/6pm.
#Chennai - 12am, a mini moderate rain system is sweeping N-W,N,central zones of city...

RT @This_is_Kritz: Chennai welcomes July with slight mazhai. :) #Chennai #rains 12:04am