Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The positive point of todays blog is the fixation and firm position of the monsoon axis,along the Punjab,North M.P.and Jharkhand route.The mere refusal of the axis to shift North is a very encouraging sign, and could allow the formation of a low in the Bay, and allow it to travel along its "line".
Thankfully, we can forget about the "break Monsoon" in that case.

IMD predicts that "an upper air cyclonic circulation may form over west-central and adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Orissa".
The system could transform into a low-pressure area over central Bay by as early as Thursday. The system would head westward along the axis line, over land and might inter act with a prevailing W.D. coming Eastwards from Thursday. The actual interaction region would definitely see good precipitations and advancement of the Monsoon,and go on to set up clouds over further northwest, 
The low, on crossing land (could be by Friday), will, in all probibilities, form a North-south trough from the centre of the low thru maharashtra Southwards upto the interiors of Karnataka.Northern peninsula could possibly experaiance widespread rainfall till Monday.
But,the CPC sees the revival of the monsoon covering the entire peninsula,during the week ending June 28.

The existing trough off the west coast is precipitating rains,in its limited capacity.All this due to the stubborn mosoon axis in the North not allowing yesterday's UAC to cross the land. 

As discussed in yesterday's blog, the rainfall amounts along the West coast, were much less than originally estimated, save and except the Mumbai coastal regions,which recieved heavy rains.In the Konkan region, only the  the Mumbai coast region,has recorded the highest rains.Thane Belapur 17cms,Thane 13cms,Mumbai Colaba 12cms,Dharavi 11cms and Uran 9cms.Even the ghats did not recieve much rains, just between 2-4cms.

Mumbai: Yesterday's revised rain estimates of reduced rains in the Konkan proved correct, but Mumbai turned out to an exceptional "iso;lated wet spot". 
As an exception for Mumbai, Vagaries of the Weather original forecast for Wednesday, the forecast published on 20th.June blog,was accurate, with the rain intensity increasing from Tuesday night. Wednesday was a rainy day, with 60 mms at Colaba and 44 mms at Santa Cruz of rain in the day.On revision, the estimate was scaled down to 30mms yesterday.
Overnight Tuesday rain was 123mms in Colaba and 87 mms in Santa Cruz.
Heavy showers, some prolonged, will continue into thursday morning, with rains decreasing in frequency later after friday.Thursday thru Friday should total upto 100 mms of rain for the 2 days.
Seems as of now, weekend rains will reduce to 25-30mms per day, with sunny patches.

Hot Night: Gwalior recorded a minimum temperature of 36.4c yesterday night(22nd. June). One of the hottest on record anywhere, I suppose.The nearest i know is the 38c recorded as the minimum at Sibi(pakistan) a few years back. The hottest night, in my record books, was at Khandwa. the lowest the mercury could go down to was 40c !!
A well marked LOW system over N. Bay will make landfall over Orissa coast on 25-Jun.. very heavy showers forecast...
GFS :: Heavy showers expected along Maharastra and Kerala coast... while N.bay low concentrates into a marked LOW ...
5:30pm, Showers over West. central Maharastra ..
5:30pm, Heavy showers over N & S-E Karnataka, N-E, S-E Madhyapradesh...
5:30pm, More heavy showers over central, S.central and N-E Tamilnadu ...
Chennai - Thunder; Lightning; Torrential Rain - its all hpng at Kelambakkam :-) .. 4:53pm
RT @krishnas: @weatherofindia Nungambakkam reported rain; saw some drizzling in porur
RT @Aagan86: Rain in kolkata is more like a tank of water being emptied.In jalpaiguri we used to have real monsoon... (4:53pm)
3:30pm, scattered thunder storms over N, N-E Karnataka, N-E Madhyapradesh, S-W interior Maharastra..
3:30pm, Heavy showers over Orissa, S. Bengal and N-E corner of Andhra...
3:30pm, Heavy showers over Central and N-E Tamilnadu including Chennai ...
RT @sanmugam: @weatherofindia Raining in Arumbakkam Chennai. Just started (4:11pm)
@vijayy2002 >> Where its raining? pls update ur location.
RT @ssrivatsan: Enjoying Heavy Rain chennai :D (3:54pm)
Chennai - Rain drops coming down now 3:56pm in Saidapet.
@prasanth_1985 >> Where in chennai its raining?? pls update ur location. In Saidapet zone NO rain yet !!
RT @prasanth_1985: chennai s getng drenched wid rain again (3:41pm)
@krishnas >> Where in Chennai its raining?? Here in Saidapet No RAIN yet !
RT @krishnas: starting to rain in Chennai - remember the days when we'd welcome the rain with pots & pons to catch what we can for later use
RT @flyspicejet: Wish to escape the monsoon?Fly with us to Srinagar and explore Leh!!!
RT @arjuncho: Monsoon brings Monsoon showers. Summers bring Summer Showers. Bangalore, is officially God's own bathroom.
@iManiRatnam >> Where its raining in Chennai? pls update the location.
RT @iManiRatnam: hey guys i'm in home. just now had a small sleep here and now its rainin here in chennai... luv tis rain so much.. (2:58pm)
Chennai - Showers expected for central, West and S-W chennai.
RT @IndiaGiga: New post: ::News4u:: » North India sizzles with heat waves; SW monsoon ...
RT @bijumly: @weatherofindia Good Climate at Bangalore now, expecting some rain at evening!
RT @TwiterPreneur: British entrepreneurs aim to make Twitter easier with new Twitter app: PR Web
An exciting ...
New Delhi :: Sorry, no rains for now, says weatherman ...
Chennai - Good sea breeze has set in and now 2:34pm we can see a thunder cell precipitating over S. suburbs of Chennai
Bihar, Jharkand, Bengal, ... will get widespread monsoon showers from the N.Bay LOW from 25-Jun to 27-Jun.
RT @piyush_veere: @weatherofindia You said that bihar'll get monsoon by 20th june..but we're still thirsty. When'll bihar get monsoon ??
GFS :: Very heavy showers for S.Maharastra, Orissa and Bengal coast on 25-Jun...
The N-W Bay LOW and circulation up to higher levels will boost the Monsoon along W.Coast and along Orissa & Bengal ...
An Upper level circulation can be seen over N-W and central Bay ..
12:30pm, N-W and Central Bay is very active after 4 days ... .. due to a LOW pressure along Orissa..
RT @suzukikp: enjoying the rain kerala (10:16am)
RT @Dithuuuu: RT @joemanakuzhy: Terrible rain around kerala (11:48am)
RT @rajugana: RT @weatherofindia: Baroda-9.55 AM- Sunny, hot and humid, partly cloudy, as passing clouds SW.Agonising wait for sky to open!
Chennai - Still a stiff breeze from WEST continues.
Chennai - Touched 37.4°C (1:32pm) and rising !! Good low cloud formation continues. Increased possibility of thunder shower towards evening
Reviving monsoon to hit west coast, North-East ...
Maharastra :: Subdued rainfall activity in most parts of state ...

Reviving monsoon to hit west coast, North-East

The South-West monsoon is expected to revive over the next two days, ending a hiatus after seasonal rains reached south Gujarat, southern parts of central India and the northeast by June 18.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh.

Widespread rain
Heavy rainfall would occur over Nagaland, Manipur Mizoram, Tripura, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka during the next two days.
Extended forecasts until Friday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Lakshadweep, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Orissa.
They would be scattered over central, the rest of east and peninsular India, the IMD added. Widespread rainfall is likely over the Northeastern States.
Despite the reasonably strong revival over the west coast and the northeast, the monsoon is expected to run up a cumulative lag of eight to 10 days by the month-end. It would barely have made it into northwest India by then, Dr Akhilesh Gupta, operational forecaster and Advisor to the Ministry of Science and Technology, told Business Line on Monday.
He had, however, refused to hazard a guess on the progress of the monsoon into early July, but the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees west Rajasthan alone not covered by the rains by July 8.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, there would be a fresh wave of rains form the south from July 1, up to which forecasts were available.

Peninsular trough
The whole peninsula is forecast to be brought under the cover of a trough, which indicates the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall over the region.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees the revived monsoon covering the entire peninsula, central and east-central India during the week ending June 28
On a scale of one to three (high, moderate, weak), the CPC assessed as ‘high' the probability of this actually panning out. For the following week (June 29-July 5), the rains would be concentrated over north and northeast India, the CPC said. Parts of the peninsula, including Rayalaseema and eastern Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and West Bengal may also share the spoils during this period.
An IMD outlook suggested that an upper air cyclonic circulation may form over west-central and adjoining coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh and south Orissa.
The system may go on to become a crucial low-pressure area over west-central and adjoining Bay of Bengal by Thursday. The system would head westward over land and according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, associated moisture-laden easterlies may loosely converge with flows from a prevailing western disturbance.
This might set off rains in parts of east India and go on to set up clouds over further northwest, bringing some relief from the severe heat wave conditions over parts of north-west India. The IMD expected that maximum temperatures may fall by 2-3 deg Celsius over northwest and adjoining central India during next three days.
The western disturbance, on its part, is forecast to cause some isolated rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours, before scaling up thereafter.
Isolated rain or thundershowers may also occur over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand. Isolated dust storm or thunderstorms have been forecast over the plains of northwest India during this period.
RT @snehalpotey: @weatherofindia raining hard in mumbai. dark clouds hanging. looks pretty good prospect whole day. pakoda chai time maaaan!
10:30am, Heavy monsoon showers along central Kerala and widespread showers continue along entire west coast...
RT @dxndavis: @weatherofindia hei she is back...its rainy days again at trivandrum from today morning ..coool... (8:12am)
Chennai - Evening of 22-Jun.. South and South-West Chennai got its first evening thunder shower.
RT @EcoSeed: U.A.E. drying up in 50 years #U.A.E. dubai drywater groundwwater reuters unitedarabemirates abudhabi
6am, As expected North Bay along Orissa coast is getting active ...
6am, South west monsoon showers picking up strongly along entire west coast.. Heavy showers along Karnataka & Kerala ..