7:30pm, T.showers seen along N-E.Andhra, S,central,N-E.Odisha  and S.Chatisgarh... http://ow.ly/i/270h8 

7:30pm, Cyclone Mahasen is gathering pace again with good convective activity ... http://ow.ly/i/270h8

Today, a wind discontinuity or Low level trough seen from S-W Bengal to S-central Andhra ...  http://ow.ly/i/270tu 

According to IMD GFS, the North-South trough from Bihar to N-W Andhra will be back from tomorrow. this may get disturbed by Cyclone movement

During next 3 days, the South peninsula will get less T.showers due to N-N-E movement of Cyclone Mahasen ... http://ow.ly/i/270Ex 

Some T.showers may pop over W.ghats of N.Kerala, N-W Tamilnadu, S-W Karnataka during next 2 days !

Somali Jet is picking up speed... a low level circulation is expected to pop over S-S-E Arabian sea on 18/19-May.. http://ow.ly/i/270N5 

A weak upper level circulation is expected over Kashmir during next 24hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/270Ux >> some showers may persist !

Cyclone "Mahasen" - Slightly weakened but moved N-N-E

Analysis show that the Cyclone has slightly weakened and tracked N-N-E during past 6 hrs.
Present position is 14.5N , 85.9E
Pressure is increased, now at around 989 mb
Winds gusting up to 83 kmph

3pm, Satellite Visible shot shows a mostly exposed core of the Cyclone. Almost NO convective activity seen over most of the quadrants, except over N,N-W quadrant.

3:10pm, RADAR from Visakapatnam reveals the nearest convective activity of the Cyclone at around 130 km South East from City.

JTWC warning and path project at 2:30pm IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION REMAINING WITHIN THE CONVERGENT BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON THE SLIGHT ELONGATION OF THE LLCC 
OBSERVED IN MSI AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INDICATING A 
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. THE LLCC HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO TRACK TO 
THE NORTHEAST AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED (20 TO 30 
KNOTS) AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE EAST OF TC 
01B, ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCE TO BECOME MORE 
PRONOUNCED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 01B WILL REMAIN ON A GENERAL 
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR 
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND 
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (INCREASING DIVERGENCE AND DECREASING 
VWS), WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. 
INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS AND VWS AS TC 01B MOVES NORTH OF THE STR 
AXIS WILL START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND TAU 
72. BEYOND LANDFALL, THE LLCC WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS 
IT TRACKS THROUGH BANGLADESH INTO NORTHERN MYANMAR. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TO THE 
NORTHEAST, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY TO THE 
EAST OF THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE AIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT 
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 
21 FEET.

Latest COLA model suggests a landfall over South Bangladesh coast on 16-May as a Cyclone.

NAVGEM model still prefers a North Odisha and South Bengal coast on 16-May as a Cyclone.

On 13-May, highest maximum temperature of 43.5°C was recorded at Ramgundam (Andhra Pradesh)

1pm, Some rain seen over Kashmir and into N.Punjab ... http://ow.ly/i/26RNC 

#HOT at 2pm, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad = 42 C, #Delhi, Varanasi = 41 C, Jaipur = 38 C, Patna = 37 C, Kolkata = 35 C.

#Chennai - 2:10pm, Cloudy with High cloud cover, Temperature around 36 C.. Almost NO wind !

• South West Monsoon Moves into South Andaman...posted Tuesday Morning
• Mahasen Moves North and is at 14N and 86E..... Strength at 992 hpa....posted 11 am Tuesday.

vagaries

Monsoon sets in over South Andaman Islands

South West Monsoon sets in over S,S-E Bay and over South Andaman Islands.
Initially it'll be weak due to the Northerly movement of Cyclone "Mahasen".
At present good cross equatorial winds seen over S,S-E Bay.
Latest satellite IR shows good convective activity over South Andaman Islands.
Official (IMD) announcement on this is expected tomorrow.
Meanwhile over the Arabian sea, the Somali jet is seen picking up speed.
S,S-E Arabian sea is expected to pop a circulation on 18 / 19-May.

Cyclone "Mahasen" - Has moved North and expected to intensify in 24hrs and turn N-N-E !

Latest analysis show that the system is gathering pace again and has moved North.
Now it has moved above Chennai parallel.
The system is now expected to track N-E and intensify into a Severe Cyclone in next 24 or 36 hrs.
Position is at 14.0N , 85.4E.
As of now, the pressure and winds remain the same...
Pressure around 985 mb and winds gusting up to 90 kmph.

8:30am, Satellite Visible shot reveals the partially exposed center and Heavy convective activity over N,W and S-W quadrant of the Cyclone. Less convective activity seen over East,South of system. Now "Mahasen" is around 400 km S-S-E of visakhapatnam

JTWC warning and path projection at 8:30am IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 132353Z SSMIS 
IMAGE AND A 132143Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A WELL DEFINED CENTER WITH 
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE. BOTH IMAGES REVEAL A NORTHWARD 
TURN IN THE STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE 
MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KNOTS, BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS DUE TO THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE 
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW IS BEING 
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 01B 
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE REMAINS WEAK. 
AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE AND TRACK 
NORTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES DUE TO WEAKENING VWS AND THE 
SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AND IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, 
TC 01B WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND LAND INTERACTION 
ALLOWS FOR DISSIPATION AT TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AS 
ECMWF AND EGRR CURVE THE SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE, WHILE NVGM TRACKS PRIMARILY NORTHWARD. GFS CONTINUES TO 
REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL WITH A GRADUAL NORTHEAST TRACK 
SIMILAR TO GFDN, WBAR, AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF 
THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL 
SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 22 FEET.