Monday, October 12, 2015

Easterly rinse

The SWM has come down to 13 Deg North,in the SE coast [above Chennai] experienced the first nascent EASTERLY.
Whereas in west coast [Mangaluru] westerly were pronounced up to  925 hPa. Obviously the penetrating easterly and withdrawing (South) southwesterly meet in the west interior parts of TamilNadu to give copious rainfall..  Usually when withdrawal of SWM is felt only coastal and immediately adjoining area will get thunder showers. Whereas this time interior TN experienced TS.  However this is NOT uncommon also.
As the SUN  advances towards tropic of Capricorn heating in southern hemisphere will increase.Anyhow the last SWM wind will be blowing for another 72-96 hours over 10 Degree latitude & below  [i.e Kochi-Bodi-Theni-Madurai -Sivaganga-Devakottai-Thondi and / or slightly above and below NH49]. Then easterlies will rinse the entire TN there after
 

October 12, 2015 at 05:47PM

3pm, heavy T shower over plains of S-tip Tamilnadu. #weather

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NE Monsoon delayed ! Onset after 23-Oct !

NE Monsoon for Tamilnadu is delayed ! Onset expected after 23-Oct !
The expected 18-Oct easterlies did not materialize !

Latest GFS suggests that easterlies expected only after 22-Oct !

Today, there's a low,mid-level circulation over N-E Bay and its trough seen upto S-central Bay ...  https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDUPm.jpg

Today, Low-level LWD seen all along W-ghats from S-W Karnataka to S-tip Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDV0l.jpg
In 24hrs, a weak low-level circulation expected over S-tip Tamilnadu and LWD to extend from S-W Maharastra Ghats to S-tip Tamilnadu.
The low-level LWD along w-ghats is expected to persist for another 3 days... HEAVY T showers ahead ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVhz.jpg

Rainfall alert for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Before midnight today...
HEAVY T showers for W-ghats all along from W Maharastra to S-tip Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVED.jpg

Widespread HEAVY T showers ahead for S,S-central and W-ghats Tamilnadu on today and 13-Oct.

Towards early morning of 13-Oct, more rain ahead for S-E, central coast Tamilnadu (like today)... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVMV.jpg

HEAVY T showers warning for W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu and over S Tamilnadu on 12,13-Oct ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDVR2.jpg

For #Chennai ... from today almost NO rain expected for next 3 days.
Except for a early morning light rain / drizzle on 13-Oct.
#Bangalore can expect a T shower on today evening and on 13-Oct.
After that its expected to be dry !

Weak Cyclone "03A" - The End !


Cyclone 03A over Arabian sea is almost at its end.
11am, ADT analysis ..pressure is 1000mb. Just a depression now.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/dDU41.jpg

JTWC warning at 3:30pm, 11-Oct
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 551 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS ISOLATED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 110529Z ASCAT PASS 
REVEALS ONLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT. INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND 
ASCAT, AND IS BELOW THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA FOR THIS BASIN. TC 03A 
HAS STRUGGLED IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS 
WELL AS POOR OUTFLOW. THE HWRF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE 
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. AS A 
RESULT, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

October 12, 2015 at 11:40AM

Dohnavur - 11:30am, Rapid convection in Ghats and plains. Heavy T showers ahead. #weather

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