Heat Wave to Grip NW India ans Pakistan Regions: 

Hottest in Pakistan on Thursday, 16th May: Larkana 48c., Jacobabad 47c.

Hottest in India on Thursday: Barmer and Jaisalmer at  46.0c, Nagpur 45.6c Ramagundam 45.0c.

Weather for the weekend, 17th,18th and 19th May.

North India remains dry and hot.

We see the day temperatures rising in Balochistan  and Sindh in Pakistan thru Rajasthan , Punjab, Haryana and Delhi into India. 

Hot conditions likely in Gujarat, UP and Northern MP.

Day temperatures likely to reach 49/50c in Balochistan/Sindh regions of Pakistan.

Rajasthan, adjoining MP and Haryana will see 45/46c, with the odd 47c.

Depression BB-1, erstwhile Cyclone Mahasen will move away, and precipitate rains in Meghalaya and NE states as a depression .

The Line of Wind discontinuity, runs perfectly in the peninsula, from North Mah down South till Kerala.

Weekend will see moderate thundershowers in N.I.Karnataka.

S.I. Kanataka will get heavy thunder showers on all the forecasted days.

Particularly heavy rains are possible in the districts of Dakshin Karnataka, Hasan, Kodagu, Mandya, Tumkur and Bangalore.

Bangalore can expect heavy thunder showers and squall on the weekend.

On Sunday, a vortex may form in the trough, around S.I. Karnataka, hence I would expect heavy showers for Bangalore on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

City Forecasts on vagaries

8:30pm, Cyclone "Mahasen" has almost vanished, T.showers seen over Odisha ... http://ow.ly/i/2882n 

8:30pm, Cloudy with light rain over S,central,S-W Maharastra, N-E Karnataka and N-W,N-central Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/2882n

As Mahasen is weakening now its turn for the S,S-E Arabian sea to pop a circulation !.. already there's a weak one over S-E.

Today morning, the Somali jet and the cross equatorial winds are strong over most of S,S-S-E, S-W Arabian sea ... http://ow.ly/i/27Z3J

The S,S-E Arabian sea is expected to pop a good low level circulation before tomorrow evening ... http://ow.ly/i/27Z7i 

COLA model expects the S-S-E Arabian sea system to develop as a depression and move N-N-W on 20 / 21-May... http://ow.ly/i/27Zcc 

Tomorrow, T.showers are expected for W.Ghats Kerala, S,S-W-coastal Karnataka and N,N-W Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/27ZgI 

Monsoon and Farm Output comparison

Graphic taken from www.thomsonreuters.com

Cyclone "Mahasen" - Moved into Bangladesh !

Mahasen has made into land and has started to dissipate very rapidly.

Cyclone Mahasen strikes Bangladeshi coast ... http://goo.gl/OtczK

Cyclone Mahasen buffets Bangladesh coast, five dead ... http://goo.gl/9q4JC

Cyclonic storm 'Mahasen' hits Bangladesh coastline... http://goo.gl/cQm6b

2:30pm, Visible shot shows convective activity over East,S-E Bangladesh and into W,S-W zones of N-E states in India.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

POSITION NEAR 23.7N 91.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM 
SOUTHEASTWARD OF DHAKA, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC MAHASEN HAS MADE LANDFALL 
NORTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH AND IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART AS 
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA, 
INDIA ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE RAPID WEAKENING AS CONVECTION HAS 
SHALLOWED. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE 
WESTERLIES AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHEASTERN INDIA WHILE CONTINUALLY 
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS RUGGED TERRAIN AND HIGH (30 TO 40 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01B WILL DISSIPATE BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

On 15-May, highest maximum temperature of 45.5°C was recorded at Barmer (Rajasthan).

#HOT at 2pm, Nagpur back to top position at 45 C, Ahmedabad= 43 C, Jaipur= 42 C, Varanasi= 41 C, #Delhi, Thiruchirapalli= 40 C, Patna= 38 C

#Chennai - 2:10pm, Thin High cloud cover was in effect till 1pm, now temperature has soared to 39 C. Humidity now around 28%, No sea breeze!

Due to Cyclone "Mahasen" N-E movement, some moisture is pushed into entire S-W India .. http://ow.ly/i/27TAC 

Today, Entire S-W coast along W.Ghats from N-W Maharastra to S.Kerala will remain cloudy with some rain around... http://ow.ly/i/27TBY 

RT @siddhray: Cloudy Mumbai @weatherofindia  http://t.co/2WT7hsgfyu (9:53am)

Today, the North-South trough from S.Bihar is slightly along S-E peninsula India due to Mahasen... http://ow.ly/i/27TFi 

Cyclone Mahasen: Cyclone Mahasen: Tracked NE, and still shy of striking land. Around 290 Kms SE of Kolkata, at 21N and 90.4E, and at 986 mb, with core winds now gushing at 50-55 knts. Very heavy rainfall reported North of centre of system...expected rains in coastal Bangladesh and adjoining W Bengal shores around 7-9 cms or more. May swerve NE and make landfall today (Thursday) along the Bangladesh Coast. Inundating low areas, with precipitation in excess of 9 cms. ... inter active radar image on vagaries blog

Cyclone "Mahasen" - making landfall over South Bangladesh now !

Cyclone Mahasen started crossing the Patuakhali coast at 9:00 am (0830 IST) Thursday ... http://ow.ly/l5075 

Bangladesh orders 1 million evacuated as Cyclone Mahasen nears ... http://ow.ly/l50sV 

9:30am, Cyclone Mahasen is pushing into South Bangladesh coast now ... http://ow.ly/i/27Tug 

Cyclone "Mahasen" - In striking distance, Bangladesh !

11:30pm, Satellite IR shows Deep convections and the cloud mass is starting to push into South Bangladesh.
Pressure remains the same around 989 mb and Winds are still gusting up to 85 kmph.

:: WARNING ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Latest COLA model suggests that the Cyclone will cross into S-E Bangladesh by tomorrow noon.

Heavy rain and strong winds expected for most of South,central,East Bangladesh during next 24hrs.
Heavy rain also expected for S,central of N-E states of India.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

POSITION NEAR 18.9N 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS 
UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS 
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. A SERIES 
OF SCATTEROMETRY PASSES AT 150333Z, 150419Z, AND 150629Z SUPPORT 35 
TO 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES 
AND PGTW AND THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO BETTER VERTICAL ALIGNMENT WITH THE LLCC, 
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO LOW LEVELS (10 
KNOTS). THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
POLEWARD ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE 
SYSTEM OVERLAND. A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS 
EXPECTED AS THE LLCC REMAINS IN A LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT, BUT DUE TO 
THE TRACK SPEED AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF BANGLADESH, THIS 
INCREASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UPON 
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 24 AND WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 
36. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING THE JTWC 
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 
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