Chennai - Very heavy rainfall ahead starting from early hrs of 7-Nov ... NO showers yet !! 10:31pm

9pm, Take a look at the huge cloud mass of cyclone jal ... now its touching shores of central Tamilnadu & N-E srilanka. http://ow.ly/i/5fQt

Update on Cyclone Jal ... may make landfall over S. Andhra and just North of Chennai ... http://ow.ly/35v52

Update on Cyclone Jal ... may make landfall over S. Andhra and just North of Chennai

Position :: 11 N , 84.9 E
Wind :: 120 kmph
Pressure :: 974 mb

Coming closer to chennai as it had moved North-West in past 6 hrs.
JTWC projection predicts that JAL may make landfall over S. Andhra and just North of Chennai on midnight of 7-Nov.

IMD warning, 8:30pm IST
------------------------------------------
Sub: Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts 

               The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.11.00N and long. 84.50E about 450 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 500 km southeast of Chennai and 600 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night. 

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours and thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Fairly widespread rain would occur over south coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours with isolated heavy to very heavy falls.

Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from to night It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall. 

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts of Tamilnadu at the time of landfall.

Damage expected: 

Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested: 

               Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors. 

The system is under constant surveillance and concerned state Govts. are being informed.

JTWC warning
---------------------------------

061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR IS LIMITED OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC 
ALTHOUGH, EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN STRONG. TC JAL IS 
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP- 
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B 
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 
CHENNAI, INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW 
WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA, BUT 
COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA 
AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS 
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. 

JTWC tracking and projected path
------------------------------------------------

Satellite, IR, 8pm IST
---------------------------------

Breaking: Cyclone Jal to Hit Tamil Nadu, Andhra and Sri Lanka

Jal  is expected to hit southeast Chennai and Nellore, Thiruvallur, Puducherry and Kancheepuram. Tropical Cyclone Jal will approach the southeastern coast of India  as a Category 1 cyclone. An inundating storm surge will also pose a serious danger. It will make landfall north of Sri Lanka Sunday afternoon, creating widespread heavy rain along with strong winds that may cause significant damage. The higher terrain of this region will cause the cyclone to weaken in terms of its damaging winds.Cyclone “Jal” which is currently 600 Km away from Jaffna is expected to make landfall in Chennai tomorrow reducing its effects on Sri Lanka.

Read More: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2010/11/breaking-cyclone-jal-to-hit-tamil-nadu.html

Cyclone jal cloud mass nearing central Tamilnadu coast .. http://ow.ly/i/5fCI

6pm, sat. shot shows the huge cloud mass of cyclone jal ... at 5:30pm it remained practically stationary ... http://ow.ly/i/5fCI

RT @mailsubash: Rode 76.68 kilometers in 3 hours and 27 mins. Very Strong Head winds in ECR. Thank God it didn't rain http://bit.ly/bg2Kjq

RT @srini_venkat: Cyclone ( ‘JAL’ ) alert to parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh - India weather - http://bit.ly/aNb312

RT @akshaydeoras: CAT 1 CYCLONE "JAL" IS CHURNING IN BAY OF BENGAL. IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TONIGHT AND TURN TO A CAT.2

Cyclone Jal intensifies, heavy rain likely in north TN, south AP ... http://ow.ly/35q2F

RT @foolscool: People to be evacuated from 4 Andhra Pradesh districts ahead of cyclone - India - DNA http://t.co/hIYeUSi

Update on Cyclone Jal ... Moved W-N-W very slowly, still cat-1 ... http://ow.ly/35pVt

Update on Cyclone Jal ... Moved W-N-W very slowly, still cat-1

Position :: 10.6 N , 85.7 E
Wind :: 120 kmph
Pressure :: 974 mb


IMD warning, 2:30pm IST
-----------------------------------------

Sub:Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message

            The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.10.5⁰N and long. 85.0⁰E about 450 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 550 km east-southeast of Chennai and 700 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7^th November 2010 night.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours and fairly widespread rain would occur over south coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours with isolated heavy to very heavy falls.. Thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.

            Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from today night It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.

            Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra Pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.

Satellite, IR 1pm IST
----------------------------------------

JTWC warning 2:30pm IST
------------------------------------------

060900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES 
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS 
LIMITED DUE TO THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN STRONG. TC JAL IS CURRENTLY 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP- LAYER 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B 
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 
CHENNAI, INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BELOW 
WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIA, BUT 
COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA 
AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS 
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 17 FEET.

JTWC tracking
-------------------------------

Latest NOGAPS model
-----------------------------------------
NOGAPS model suggests a chennai landfall in another 36 hrs.

Chennai - expected to receive sharp showers from late evening of today.. Get ready chennai !!

NCEP-GFS model suggests a slight weakening before making landfall near Chennai on evening of 7-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/5fda

According to IMD-GFS ... 5:30am on 7-Nov, cyclone Jal will be very dangerously close to Chennai ... http://ow.ly/i/5f8C

Chennai - Having a very cloudy day now 1:59pm, with occasional drops of Rain... wind speed has picked up slightly... direction mostly from N

Update on Cyclone Jal ... Upgraded to category 1 and moved N-W ... http://ow.ly/35nux

Last Cyclone to cross near chennai was in 1996 ... http://ow.ly/35ntZ

Update on Cyclone Jal ... Upgraded to category 1 and moved N-W

Position :: 10.5 N , 85.9 E
Wind :: 120 kmph
Pressure :: 974 mb
Though it had moved in N-W direction, the upper air current is still favorable for a N. Tamilnadu landfall.

IMD warning, 8:30am IST
---------------------------------------

Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message

            The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ moved westwards, and lay centered over south west Bay of Bengal at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, near lat.10.0⁰N and long. 85.5⁰E about 500 km east northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 650 km east-southeast of Chennai and 750 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7^th November 2010 night.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu,Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours and fairly widespread rain would occur over south coastal Tamilnadu during next 48 hours with isolated heavy to very heavy falls.. Thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema..

Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from today evening It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall. 

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhrapradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.

Damage expected:

Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested:

            Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

JTWC warning
---------------------------

060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 060019Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY 
CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS 
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE IN THE 060019Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS 
FROM DEMS, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM 
IS EXPERIENCING SOME PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO 
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS, 
HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. TC JAL IS CURRENTLY 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO-DEEP LAYER 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING 
LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA JUST AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL 
WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) AS IT TRACKS ACROSS 
SOUTHERN INDIA, BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL 
CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JTWC tracking
------------------------------

Satellite, 8am IST
------------------------------

JAL TRACK

06112010 / 0745 hrs IST:

Position : 10.45 Degree North / 85.9 Degree East.

[About 700 km E-NE of Nagapattinam]

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘JAL’ JAL MOVED WEST-NORTWESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 2100 UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2010, NEAR LAT. 10.00N AND LONG. 86.00E ABOUT 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 700 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279) AND 850 KM SOUTHEAST OF NELLORE (43245) 

                     SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 55 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.  THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA. 

                    ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD MASS IS MORE ORGANISED. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5. THE CLOUD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION  AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND  BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION BETWEEN LAT.6.00 TO 15.50 NORTH AND WEST OF LONG 89.00 EAST. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800 TO -850C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

                    THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT. THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER. THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN PUDUCHERRY  (43331) AND NELLORE (43245) CLOSE TO CHENNAI (43279) BY 7TH NOVEMBER 2010 NIGHT. 

                    BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

JAL WATCH

Sub:Severe Cyclone ‘JAL’ over Southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts-Orange Message

The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward, intensified into Severe Cyclonic storm and lay centered at 0230 hrs IST of today, the 6th November 2010, near lat.10.00N and long. 86.00E about 550 km east northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 700 km east-southeast of Chennai and 850 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)	Intensity
06-11-2010/0230	10.0/86.0	90-100 gusting 110	Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/0830	10.5/85.5	100-110 gusting 120	Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/1430	11.0/85.0	110-120 gusting 130	Severe Cyclonic Storm
06-11-2010/2030	11.5/84.0	110-120 gusting 130	Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/0230	12.0/83.5	120-130 gusting 140	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
07-11-2010/1430	13.0/82.0	120-130 gusting 140	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
08-11-2010/0230	14.0/80.0	120-130 gusting 140	Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
08-11-2010/1430	15.0/79.0	50-60 gusting 70	Deep Depression
09-11-2010/0230	17.0/77.0	40-50 gusting 60	Depression

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours. Thereafter the intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema .

Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph would prevail along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast commencing from today evening It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.

Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.

Damage expected:

Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.

Action suggested:

Total suspension of fishing operations. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

JAL WATCH

06/000Z

POSITION: 10.5⁰ N / 85.9⁰ E

[About 700km East NE of Nagapattinam]

Sustained Maximum winds: 100-110 kmph.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from morning of 6^th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema from morning of 7^th November 2010.

Update on Cyclone Jal ... Getting more organized and moving N-W ... http://ow.ly/35iz9

Update on Cyclone Jal ... Getting more organized and moving N-W

Position :: 9.9N , 86.4E
Wind :: 105 kmph
Pressure :: 982 mb


IMD warning, 2am IST
--------------------------------------
 The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved nothwestward and lay centered at 2330 hrs IST of 5th November 2010, near lat.10.0⁰N and long. 86.5⁰E about 570 km east northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 750 km east-southeast of Chennai and 850 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7^th November 2010 night.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from morning of 6^th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema from morning of 7^th November 2010.

                Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6^th November 2010. It may increase upto 120-130 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions will be very rough to high, along and off these coasts becoming phenomenal at the time of landfall.

                Storm surge of about 1-2 metres above the astronomical tide may inundate the low lying areas of Nellore & Prakasam districts of Andhra pradesh and Tiruvallur, Chennai & Kanchipuram districts at the time of landfall.

JTWC warning, 2:30am IST
----------------------------------------

052100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 86.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (JAL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 051500Z PARTIAL 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 
051500Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 
JAL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO-
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ALONG A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, TC 05B WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST 
SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA AND WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD CRITERIA 
(35 KNOTS) BY TAU 72. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD RE-
INTENSIFY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE NORTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA AFTER TAU 
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST 
TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE 
WESTWARD AND RE-INTENSIFIES TC 05B IN THE ARABIAN SEA. THIS FORECAST 
REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 16 FEET. 

JTWC tracking
-------------------------------

Satellite, IR, 2am IST
-----------------------------------

2am, Sat shot reveals that cyclone jal is getting severe and more organized ... http://ow.ly/i/5ed9