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Rain picking up

Monsoon Rain is picking up...
For details about last 24hrs rain Please take a look at the Doppler images provided by IMD. Doppler Image

Rainfall recorded in past 24 hrs...
Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) 23, Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt) and Karaikal 17 each, Nagapattinam 16, Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam dt) 15, Thozhudur (Cuddalore dt) and Parangipettai 14 each, Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt) 13, Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt) 12, Puducherry Airport, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt), Nannilam and Thiruthuraipoondi (both Tiruvarur dt), Thiruvarur and Tada (Nellore dt) 10 each, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Kumbakonam (Thanjavur dt), Kodavasal, Mannargudi, Valangaiman and Muthupet (all Tiruvarur dt), Manamelkudi, Gudur (Nellore dt) and Tirupathi Airport 9 each, Orathanadu, Papanasam, Thirukattupalli and Thiruvaiyaru (all Thanjavur dt), Needamangalam and Thiruthuraipoondi (both Tiruvarur dt), Ariyalur, Jayamkondam (Perambalur dt) and Rajampet (Cuddapah dt) 8 each and Thanjavur, Adiramapattinam, Virudhachalam and Ulundurpet (both Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Perambalur, Thuraiyur (Tiruchirapalli dt), Lakkireddipalli (Cuddapah dt) and Agathi Airport 7 each.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:

Vanur (Cuddalore dt), Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Lalgudi and Pullambadi (Tiruchirapalli dt), Cholavaram (Thiruvallur dt), Rapur and Sulurpet (both Nellore dt) and Gulbarga 6 each, Thiruvallur, Cuddalore, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Gingee, Kallakurichi (both Villupuram dt), Arantangi, Gandarvakottai, Karambakudi and Perungalur (all Pudukottai dt), Ramanathapuram, Salem, Yercaud, Ketti (Nilgiris dt), Mayanur (Karur dt), Thathaiyangarpet (Tiruchirapalli dt), Thiruchirapalli, Thiruchirapalli Airport, Red Hills and Thamaraipakkam (both Thiruvallur dt) and Seetharamapuram (Nellore dt) 5 each, Vallam (Thanjavur dt), Alankudi, Keeranur and Viralimalai (all Pudukottai dt), Tiruvannamalai, Ambur (Vellore dt), Dharmapuri, Denkanikottai, Soolagiri and Uthangarai (all Krishnagiri dt), Paramathi Velur and Tiruchengode (both Namakkal dt), Valapadi (Salem dt), Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Vembavur (Perambalur dt), Kodaikanal, Poondi (Thiruvallur dt), Nellore, Atmakur (Nellore dt), Vempalli (Cuddapah dt), Gokak (Belgaum dt), Raichur, Ajjampura and Panchanahalli (both Chickmagalur dt), Hosadurga, Srirampura and Hiriyur (all Chitradurga dt) 4 each, Chengalpattu and Madhuranthagam (both Kanchipuram dt), Kanchipuram, Poonamalle and Ponneri (both Thiruvallur dt), Sankarapuram and Thirukoilur (both Villupuram dt), Thirumayam (Pudukottai dt), Thiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram dt), Chengam, Polur and Sathanurdam (all Thiruvannamalai dt), Harur, Pennagaram and Pappireddipatti (all Dharmapuri dt), Barur and Thali (both Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Mangalapuram, Rasipuram and Sendamangalam (all Namakkal dt), Omalur (Salem dt), Bhavanisagar and Perundurai (both Erode dt), Erode, Coonoor, Kundhabridge (Nilgiris dt), Karur Paramathi, Kulithalai (Karur dt), Chettikulam (Perambalur dt), Manaparai, Marungapuri and Musiri (all Tiruchirapalli dt), Devakottai, Karaikudi and Tirupathur (all Sivagangai dt), Korattur (Thiruvallur dt), Porumamilla (Cuddapah dt), Dharmavaram, Chilamattur, Madakasira and Kadiri (all Ananthapur dt), Mangalore Airport, Afzalfur (Gulbarga dt), Chickmagalur, Lingadahalli, Shivani, Tarikere, Kadur and Yegati (all Chickmagalur dt), Gowribidanur (Kolar dt), Hessarghatta (Bangalore Urban dt), Hosekote (Bangalore Rural dt), Huliyurdurga and Koratagere (both Tumkur dt) 3 each.
Chennai AP: 14mm
Chennai: 15mm
Source IMD, Chennai.

Bay watch

It shows an unsettled setting from the southeastern Arabian Sea and southern India to western Indonesia and the Malay Peninsula. Ill-defined cores seem to be near southern India and near Sumatra. The pattern of high cloud (whitest is coldest and thus highest) to the west suggests upper winds about a ridge, aloft, fanning these clouds westward and northward; the ridge would be anchored over eastern India. This radial flow could be supportive for the growth of a tropical depression in the area, most likely west of southern India, were it to persist.

Lowest pressure now has two centers: one is east of Sri Lanka and the other over the Laccadive Sea. I believe that the one to watch here is the western one, given what I am seeing on numerical weather forecasts. Make no mistake about it, though: there is not yet a consensus as to where and when any depression or cyclone would happen. Indeed, I do not see this as a `done deal` yet.

Latest numerical forecasts include the GFS, which is slow to grow a low over the Arabian Sea. It eventually (after November 5th) brings rain to southern Oman. It also suggests a southern Bay low, but the timing is different--later by 2-3 days--than had been earlier shown.

The NOGAPS has two lows developing including a Bay low that lands in SE India at about Oct 28. This is once again slower than earlier forecast runs. The NOGAPS has a stronger Arabean Sea low--further west and faster--than the GFS.

The ECMWF from earlier Tuesday shows a strong low (if true, it would be an important tropical cyclone) ominously near to southern Oman by October 30th. As for the Bay, the trend is in line with the other models: a low (depression or cyclone) that is shown to be slower to form than on earlier model runs.

It is still a waiting game without much confidence. The time of year is right for a depression or cyclone--and so is the overall weather setting. Yet it may take another few days to get a basic idea of where any such weather system, or systems, takes shape.