And we (weatherofindia Team) might miss out to TWEET about the FIRST.. monsoon shower over Chennai. That may be anytime after tomor evening.

Tomorrow, 27-Oct-09, Our weather update Author will be in Coimbatore.. so for ONE day we'll have updates from Coimbatore.

Chennai - These LOW clouds were not seen at this time for the past 2 to 3 weeks.

Chennai - Signs of NE air current... now 5:38pm, minor LOW clouds moving in from Sea (East).. and with medium winds from perfect North-east

Abnormal high Sea temp. will create a Good platform for NE monsoon showers along TN coast and eventually will support the Cyclone formation.

Sea surface Temperature along South-west Bay, near Tamilnadu coast is abnormally high .. http://ping.fm/tM5TB ..

Here's the latest +36 hr GFS .. http://ping.fm/dMl8k

GFS for next 36hrs still supports that the NE monsoon winds & Rain will be over Chennai & TN coast after evening of 27-Oct-09.

There's NO visible evidence of things to come from morning of 28-Oct-09,take a look at this latest satellite shot , http://ping.fm/dmRz0

Chennai - We are supposed to see changes in weather in expectation of the FIRST NE monsoon shower anytime after evening of 27-Oct-09.

Chennai - Bit of Low cloud formation than past 2 weeks.. Today's high was 34.2°C (11:57am).

Another TYphoon in Pacific and remnant is shown as tracking south-west over Indo-China to almost slip into the south-east Bay by 4-Nov.

Active phase is forecast to continue during the week (Nov 2 - 10) as well with the ‘push’ coming in from the south to south-east Bay.

Abnormal warming of the south and south-east Bay is what is seen as keeping the basin sufficiently active, the NCEP outlook said.

RT @naveenks: India tops with US in solar power http://ping.fm/qBrNH | In wind power, India is at 5.

Chennai - Light wind from perfect North-East. Slightly higher LOW temp. today morning was due to the push of NE monsoon moisture from Bay.

Chennai - Another Very clear and mild morning with a slightly higher LOW temperature of 26.4°C (6:08am).

RT @HeadlinesIndia: Karnataka flood relief turns into political battle http://uurl.in/ARVD2 India news

Isolated rains forecast for southern peninsula from today

Latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) predictions have indicated scattered to fairly widespread rains are possible over south peninsular India with isolated heavy falls over coastal Tamil Nadu from Wednesday.

Satellite imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Andaman Sea.

Outlook until Wednesday said that scattered rainfall is likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and parts of Kerala and Lakshadweep may start getting isolated rainfall from Monday onwards.

MODEL CONSENSUS


Most international models surveyed were in agreement with the IMD outlook for this phase.

Cyclone phase evaluation modelling by the Canadian Meteorological Centre and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) identically suggested enhanced weather activity in the south-west Bay of Bengal.

North Sri Lanka, the Palk Straits and south-east coast of Tamil Nadu are the areas likely to witness most of the weather, according to these projections.

October 31 and November 1 could be the two dates to watch out during the short term for south-east Tamil Nadu and north-east Sri Lanka, according to GFS predictions by the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre.

Precipitation forecast by the NCEP valid for the week ending November 1, too, said that south-east coastal Tamil Nadu and the rest of its coastal regions may be in for some battering.

Abnormal warming of the south and south-east Bay is what is seen as keeping the basin sufficiently active, the NCEP outlook said.

This active phase is forecast to continue during the following week (November 2 to 10) as well with the ‘push’ coming in from the south to south-east Bay.

LIKELY TYPHOON


According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), enhanced activity could be attributed to landfall of the next typhoon-in-making (Mirinae, according to naming protocol) in the South China Sea with a landfall predicted over Thailand on November 3.

After landfall here, the weakened storm is forecast to head west to south-west into Indo-China and a remnant circulation may manage to slip into the Bay of Bengal within the next two days.

This behaviour of this remnant circulation would need to be watched out for signals for reinvigorated storm activity, according to the Roundy-Albany model that tracks storm development.

According to the ECMWF, the causative ‘low’ may take shape east of the Philippines by Wednesday and make a landfall over the most storm-visited land on earth over the following three days.

After landfall over the archipelago, the storm is forecast to emerge into the South China Sea and undergo a few rounds of intensification to grow into a likely typhoon, before making a landfall over Thailand.

From here, the typhoon remnant is shown as tracking south to south-west over Indo-China to almost slip into the extreme south-east Bay of Bengal by November 4, up to which forecasts were available on Sunday.

WIND PATTERN


The IMD update on Sunday said that northwesterly to northerly winds were prevailing over northwest, east and central India.




A trough extended from Arunachal Pradesh to south Bay of Bengal in the lower levels of the atmosphere with an embedded cyclonic circulation over the central Bay.

The north-to-south flows occasioned by the trough are expected to cause the pre-existing upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay to move west-southwest (towards the Sri Lankan latitude).

Some international models suggested that the circulation may dig further south where it would be positioned to pump up the easterly flows over peninsular India during the next week and enhance the northeast monsoon performance.

Meanwhile, maximum temperatures were above normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over the west and east coasts of India; by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over many parts of the north-eastern States, central and interior peninsular India.

But, they were below normal by 3 to 6 deg Celsius over most parts of northwest, central and east India, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and north interior Karnataka.