Friday, April 16, 2010
RT @sathyavpk: Sky is still dark. Rain in Kochi N900 http://ping.fm/673bB vai @binoyxj Weather Kerala
RT @hashkerala: RT @binoyxj : Cloudy sky just before the rain.Captured using N900 kochi kerala http://ping.fm/NJOZb
RT @hashkerala: RT @sathyavpk : http://u.nu/6rre8 Raining Raining Raining Kochi Kerala Rain:-) listening Tamil song
RT @hashkerala: RT @sathyavpk : http://u.nu/6rre8 Raining Raining Raining Kochi Kerala Rain:-) listening Tamil song 'Adada Mazhaida Adai mazhaida.....
3:30pm, Entire western ghats from North to South is lighted up with Thunder cells .. http://ping.fm/J9g4g
IPL : Kings Punjab V Deccan chargers , played at Dharamsala... at the Foot hills of Himalayas.. http://ping.fm/pbmZU
2:30pm, All along western ghats from Konkan to South extreme. are getting ready to host thunder cells .. http://ping.fm/hCeJt
2:30pm, Thunder cell also visible over Madurai - Paramagudi zone in Tamilnadu ... http://ping.fm/KpdAd
2:30p, Thunder cells over N-W Andhra, S & S-W maharastra, S Chatisgarh and N-E Andhra along area bordering Orissa.. http://ping.fm/QM8bW
Normal monsoon seen despite likely June hiccups
Seasonal climate updates by most models continue to predict a ‘near-normal to normal' monsoon for India, with the odd one maintaining the outlook for ‘surplus to flooding rains'.
Models also tend to agree with the outlook that the ‘monsoon-killer' El Nino may already have started breaking down in the eastern Pacific.
GAME CHANGER
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest update that the 30-day SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) value has gone positive early this month for the first time since September of last year. Its current value of +6.2 is the highest 30-day SOI since late June 2009.
SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Nino and alter-ego La Nina episodes.
According to the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather services, an increasing number of models are predicting below-average temperatures in the eastern Pacific in the late summer.
Some forecasts have tended to meet thresholds for a La Nina. However, it should be noted that model skill is at a minimum during this time of year. La Nina has been associated with normal India monsoon, though without cause-effect relationship.
LA NINA STRENGTH
An April update from the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) says that the current El Nino would end soon and a ‘fairly strong La Nina' condition would develop during this summer.
But the RIGC has suggested that La Nina would not have the additional prop from a favourable Indian Ocean Dipole, which mimics El Nino-La Nina in the Indian Ocean) this time.
The RIGC has maintained its outlook for ‘more rains or even floods' for India, Indonesia, Australia and northeast Brazil during this season. Some relief could be had for southeastern China, which is witnessing severe drought conditions currently.
Meanwhile, the ongoing South Asian Climate Outlook Forum at Pune observed on Thursday that monsoon rains over south Asia will probably be near normal this season.
RIGC is also of the view that the monsoon onset and advance stage would be weak, with below normal rainfall being predicted for the southwest coast in June.
The June-July-August outlook also sees rainfall deficit in east-central India, too. But normal to above normal rainfall could be expected during September-October-November backed up by likely La Nina conditions.
Month-wise forecasts from RIGC are as follows:
May – below normal rains along the west coast and west-central India as well as parts of northwest India while it would be normal to above normal over the east and northeast;
June – below normal to deficit rains for southwest coast and southeast Arabian Sea, from where the monsoon is catapulted for a final time before makes it to the onset; and
July – rainfall surplus over peninsula, varying deficit over east and east-central India and the Mumbai-Konkan belt.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorised Wednesday's devastating thunderstorm over Bihar and West Bengal as a tornado/squall line formation packing brute strike power.
It traced the violent weather to Nor'wester activity (westerly winds) ably supported by the unstable weather generated by a combination of explosive factors.
For instance, the heated-up surface and moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal were brought into play within the storm-breeding ground of a trough that existed in the region.
An expert team has been deputed to the site of destruction to assess the situation and IMD expected to come out with a detailed report soon.
Models also tend to agree with the outlook that the ‘monsoon-killer' El Nino may already have started breaking down in the eastern Pacific.
GAME CHANGER
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest update that the 30-day SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) value has gone positive early this month for the first time since September of last year. Its current value of +6.2 is the highest 30-day SOI since late June 2009.
SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Nino and alter-ego La Nina episodes.
According to the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather services, an increasing number of models are predicting below-average temperatures in the eastern Pacific in the late summer.
Some forecasts have tended to meet thresholds for a La Nina. However, it should be noted that model skill is at a minimum during this time of year. La Nina has been associated with normal India monsoon, though without cause-effect relationship.
LA NINA STRENGTH
An April update from the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) says that the current El Nino would end soon and a ‘fairly strong La Nina' condition would develop during this summer.
But the RIGC has suggested that La Nina would not have the additional prop from a favourable Indian Ocean Dipole, which mimics El Nino-La Nina in the Indian Ocean) this time.
The RIGC has maintained its outlook for ‘more rains or even floods' for India, Indonesia, Australia and northeast Brazil during this season. Some relief could be had for southeastern China, which is witnessing severe drought conditions currently.
Meanwhile, the ongoing South Asian Climate Outlook Forum at Pune observed on Thursday that monsoon rains over south Asia will probably be near normal this season.
RIGC is also of the view that the monsoon onset and advance stage would be weak, with below normal rainfall being predicted for the southwest coast in June.
The June-July-August outlook also sees rainfall deficit in east-central India, too. But normal to above normal rainfall could be expected during September-October-November backed up by likely La Nina conditions.
Month-wise forecasts from RIGC are as follows:
May – below normal rains along the west coast and west-central India as well as parts of northwest India while it would be normal to above normal over the east and northeast;
June – below normal to deficit rains for southwest coast and southeast Arabian Sea, from where the monsoon is catapulted for a final time before makes it to the onset; and
July – rainfall surplus over peninsula, varying deficit over east and east-central India and the Mumbai-Konkan belt.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorised Wednesday's devastating thunderstorm over Bihar and West Bengal as a tornado/squall line formation packing brute strike power.
It traced the violent weather to Nor'wester activity (westerly winds) ably supported by the unstable weather generated by a combination of explosive factors.
For instance, the heated-up surface and moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal were brought into play within the storm-breeding ground of a trough that existed in the region.
An expert team has been deputed to the site of destruction to assess the situation and IMD expected to come out with a detailed report soon.
Rainfall on 15-Apr, Heavy & widespread over N-E states and isolated over karnataka and S-Kerala.. http://yfrog.com/0dz5yg
13-Apr, Earthquake on Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai, China
Based on data collected by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission in 2002, this map shows the location of the quake and several aftershocks (black circles) as well as significant tectonic faults (red lines). A northwest-southeast valley provides evidence of the underlying geologic fault. The dotted line to the southwest traces the approximate location of a suture zone, which, as its name suggests, is an area where two continental plates have joined together.
As the India Plate pushes north, the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau is getting bent and stretched toward the south-southeast. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the quake occurred along a strike-slip fault, and it was one of the largest known earthquakes to have occurred within several hundred kilometers of the location.
Ash Plume across the North Atlantic
Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull Volcano sent a plume of ash and steam across the North Atlantic in mid-April 2010, prompting authorities in the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, and Scandinavia to close airspace over their countries. The airspace closure had a ripple effect, disrupting flights to and from other countries as well. Authorities could not say how long the airspace closure would last, and the ash’s spread threatened to force closures of additional airspace over the coming days.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image on April 15, 2010. A volcanic plume blows from Eyjafjallajökull Volcano in southern Iceland toward the east-southeast. The plume blows past the Faroe Islands and arcs slightly toward the north near the Shetland Islands. The plume’s tan hue indicates a fairly high ash content.
Unlike the soft, fluffy material that results from burned vegetation, volcanic ash consists of tiny jagged particles of rock. Once sucked into an airplane’s turbines, the abrasive material can easily cause engine failure, but an aircraft’s weather radar can’t spot the ash.
Eyjafjallajökull (or Eyjafjöll) is a stratovolcano composed of alternating layers of ash, lava, and rocks ejected by earlier eruptions. This volcano rises to a height of 1,666 meters (5,466 feet) above sea level. It began erupting for the first time in 190 years on March 20, 2010. The eruption opened a 500-meter (2,000-foot) fissure, and also produced lava fountains that built several hills of bubble-filled lava rocks (scoria) along the vent.
Indian Heat soaring
Indian Heat soaring. Idar at 46.8c. Hill stations are over heated with Simla at 29.3, Mahableshwar at 35.3c.
Kurnool becomes the first to cross 30c as minimum, with 30.2c as the minimum on Tuesday.
Posted By Rajesh Kapadia
Kurnool becomes the first to cross 30c as minimum, with 30.2c as the minimum on Tuesday.
Posted By Rajesh Kapadia
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