Friday, May 21, 2010
RT @HinduismNews: Cyclone hit areas received an average of 2 inches rainfall per hour - http://url4.eu/3ck2k
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 19 ... Now a D.Depression over Andhra
JTWC warning
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JTWC projected path
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IMD warning 13:30hrs IST
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Satellite shot
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210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 81.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS IT TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST INDIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE FROM VISAKHAPATNAM. (DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, AND THERE ARE NO NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 48, ITS REMNANTS WILL EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL, INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH, NEAR CHITTAGONG. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
JTWC projected path
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IMD warning 13:30hrs IST
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Deep depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh weakened into depression.
The deep depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved north-northeastwards and further weakened into a depression and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010 over coastal Andhra Pradesh, about 100 km west of Kakinada.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken further and move in a north-northeasterlydirection.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Telangana during next 12 hours and decrease in intensity thereafter. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Orissa during next 36 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 48 hours.
Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.
Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal . In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. The system is therefore under constant watch.
Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010
Satellite shot
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Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Monsoon like showers continue along Kerala coast, while S-W Srilanka is hit by sharp monsoon showers .. http://ow.ly/i/1FVp
Storms formed during May and September MAY indicate the weak or lesser strength in monsoonal wind ... http://ow.ly/1O0Tm
Path of MAY month Cyclones
If the cyclone tracks of the Month of May is viewed most of them will take re curvature and hit Bangladesh or Myanmar. "Alia" was not an exception. Similarly to day [20 May 2010 / 2135 hrs IST] also it is to think that "LAILA' will follow the suite even after the land fall.
However LAILA has grown through out its journey up to 13-14 km height and slopped SW wards. Most of the rain bands formed NW-SE direction and gave copious rain fall in that route.
Usually when a cyclone eye tends to cross the coast [in the first half portion of a circle / or elongated circle]the winds at northern most crossing point will be North Easterly. Further to its SOUTH,the winds will be NORTHERLY. Still further to south,winds will be North Westerly and WESTERLY respectively. When the center of eye crosses it would be a calm wind. Later,when the other half portion of the circle crosses,winds will be South Easterly at the northern most point, further to its South positions Winds will be Southerly to South Westerly respectively.
Usually Bay storms in May has varied effects on monsoons. There were instances where monsoon was bountiful and there were examples where monsoon was normal or worst.
Storms formed during May and September MAY indicate the weak or lesser strength in monsoonal wind. [Need NOT be the entire monsoon.]
Posted by Anonymous
However LAILA has grown through out its journey up to 13-14 km height and slopped SW wards. Most of the rain bands formed NW-SE direction and gave copious rain fall in that route.
Usually when a cyclone eye tends to cross the coast [in the first half portion of a circle / or elongated circle]the winds at northern most crossing point will be North Easterly. Further to its SOUTH,the winds will be NORTHERLY. Still further to south,winds will be North Westerly and WESTERLY respectively. When the center of eye crosses it would be a calm wind. Later,when the other half portion of the circle crosses,winds will be South Easterly at the northern most point, further to its South positions Winds will be Southerly to South Westerly respectively.
Usually Bay storms in May has varied effects on monsoons. There were instances where monsoon was bountiful and there were examples where monsoon was normal or worst.
Storms formed during May and September MAY indicate the weak or lesser strength in monsoonal wind. [Need NOT be the entire monsoon.]
Posted by Anonymous
All about weather prediction
The history of weather prediction by man might have started from his cave days. All animals and birds have a built in instinct to keenly observe, analyse and react to the incoming changes. Sunrise and sun set & the eclipse induced darkness are typical examples we see daily[recently saw!]-how all the birds react and the same can be extrapolated to incoming thunder,lightning, showers, winds of various velocities, earthquakes & even tsunamis. But as we hear, read, or observe these fro m our animal/bird kingdoms, we are a bit mesmerized. Only our modernisation and the resulting aloofness from nature, has dwindled or even decimated our 'inborn' faculties.
Though we can claim a lot -computer making, instrument design fabrication, precision modeling etc.- our absolute success in weather predictions is yet to be realized. Even if to be realized, it will be far off! The rates of changes of layers of atmospheric 'ingradients'-concentrations of moisture, dust particles, their physical nature, chemical constitution, etc. as well as specific gravities from time to time are difficult to prdict, even with the best of instruments, supported by the fastest computers. Thus, by the time the "prediction printout" is read by us, the positions of the Sun, Earth, & its atmospheric parameters would have changed, and a different 'weather' sets up to disprove our predictions
Some f the recent studies have shown these points beyond doubts: Our weathermen's rain predictions every season, recent tsunami warnings- occurrences, the manner in which the low pressure areas remain dynamic or static - all have had more than "statistical errors" leading to horrors in daily life!
It was reported some time ago that, the eagles will lay eggs & hatch them if and only if the ‘kids’ are going to face sumptuous food supply for at least three years from the period they plan the ‘failure free family! So they at least three to four years to the future [OVERALL]weather. So we can learn a lot from them about future famine or food supply , rather than sitting in AC rooms operating Computers, Instruments, etc. & ending up in emberassing situations like our Minister Pachuri !
Posted by Raman
Though we can claim a lot -computer making, instrument design fabrication, precision modeling etc.- our absolute success in weather predictions is yet to be realized. Even if to be realized, it will be far off! The rates of changes of layers of atmospheric 'ingradients'-concentrations of moisture, dust particles, their physical nature, chemical constitution, etc. as well as specific gravities from time to time are difficult to prdict, even with the best of instruments, supported by the fastest computers. Thus, by the time the "prediction printout" is read by us, the positions of the Sun, Earth, & its atmospheric parameters would have changed, and a different 'weather' sets up to disprove our predictions
Some f the recent studies have shown these points beyond doubts: Our weathermen's rain predictions every season, recent tsunami warnings- occurrences, the manner in which the low pressure areas remain dynamic or static - all have had more than "statistical errors" leading to horrors in daily life!
It was reported some time ago that, the eagles will lay eggs & hatch them if and only if the ‘kids’ are going to face sumptuous food supply for at least three years from the period they plan the ‘failure free family! So they at least three to four years to the future [OVERALL]weather. So we can learn a lot from them about future famine or food supply , rather than sitting in AC rooms operating Computers, Instruments, etc. & ending up in emberassing situations like our Minister Pachuri !
Posted by Raman
RT @EcoSeed: First US city to be lit with 100% LEDS http://bit.ly/bbLzLq LED sustainable greenbuilding
12:30pm, Orissa coast getting some good showers while Laila is weakening over North Andhra... http://ow.ly/i/1FPS
TRMM analysis as Cyclone Laila hits Coastal Andhra on 20-May
TRMM captured data used in the image above on 20 May 2010 0714 UTC just before tropical cyclone LAILA came ashore in eastern India. LAILA was at tropical storm strength with winds estimated at about 50 knots (~57.5 mph) at that time. Very intense rainfall of over 50mm/hr (~2 inches) is shown over land northwest of the storm's center in this analysis of TRMM rainfall data. Data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) instruments were used in the rainfall analysis. These data were overlaid on a combined Visible and Infrared image from TRMM's Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS). To this date at least six people were reported killed in incidents related to LAILA and many fishing boats damaged. LAILA was forecast to weaken to tropical depression intensity by 22 May 2010 while moving to the northeast inland parallel to the eastern India coast. |
| The 3-D image on the right was made using data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) and shows that the powerful thunderstorms northwest of tropical cyclone LAILA shot up to heights above 17.5 kilometers (~57,415 feet). |
Cyclone "Laila"
Tropical Cyclone Laila brought heavy rains and strong winds to the Bay of Bengal and parts of India in May 2010. This color-coded image shows estimated rainfall amounts for May 17 through May 19, as well as the storm track from May 17 to May 20. The heaviest amounts of rain—300 or more millimeters (12 or more inches)—appear in dark blue. The lightest amounts of rain—less than 37.5 millimeters (1.5 inches)—appear in pale green. The storm track is indicated by a pink line. The thicker, darker portion of that line shows where the storm intensified on May 19.
The heaviest rainfall amounts appear close to the storm track, and especially heavy rain falls just off the Indian coast. Although rainfall amounts are lighter farther away from the storm track, substantial amounts of rain occur throughout the region.
On May 20, 2010, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Tropical Cyclone Laila had maximum sustained winds of 50 knots (90 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 65 knots (120 kilometers per hour). Roughly 230 nautical miles (430 kilometers) southwest of the coastal city of Visakhapatnam (also spelled Vishakhapatnam), the storm had moved slowly northward over the previous six hours.
Reuters reported that the storm was expected to impact the Indian states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, and that fishing communities in coastal lowlands would be especially hard hit. Meanwhile, ReliefWeb reported that authorities in Sri Lanka were scrambling to find shelter for thousands of residents affected by torrential rains there, as monsoon season got underway.
This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.
RT @bbcworld: At least 23 people die as a cyclone causes widespread havoc across the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. http://bit.ly/cswsAQ
Cyclone "01 B" .. Update # 18 .. Stationary over Andhra
IMD warning 7:30am IST
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JTWC warning
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JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 8am IST
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The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010 near Machilipatnam(Andhra Pradesh).
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve into a northeasterly direction towards Orissa.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the same period.
Gale force wind with speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.
Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Damage to thatched huts, breaking of the tree branches, causing minor damage to power and communication lines.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation.
Forecast for Orissa: Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over coastal & south Orissa and isolated heavy over remaining parts of Orissa during next 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa during the same period.pFishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal . In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21st May 2010.
JTWC warning
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210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 80.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED INLAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, AND THERE ARE NO NEARBY REPORTING STATIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST, PARALLELING THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF INDIA WHILE WEAKENING. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, AND DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER LAND PRIOR TO ENTERING BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, IN THE VICINITY OF BANGLADESH, AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO PULL UP MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 8am IST
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