Thursday, December 17, 2009

Chennai - It's going to be a very cold night and will be very cold in morning of 18-Dec, temperature now 11:28pm IST is 22.8°C
Models predict that rain will continue after a 48hr break.. More easterlies on way for TN coast.
More rain for Tamilnadu till 30-Dec-09 and into Jan-2010.. ... Keep following
Intermittent heavy downpours have largely affected fishing activities along the Chennai-Kancheepuram,Tiruvallur coast..

Remnant ‘low' continues to rain over coastal TN

Tuesday's well-marked ‘low' over north Sri Lanka and adjoining Gulf of Mannar has further weakened into a ‘low' and has persisted around the same region overnight on Wednesday.

A remnant of erstwhile tropical cyclone Ward that has mostly failed forecasts made by the best centres around the globe, the system threw up signals that it might retrace the very track it had trodden while making the first landfall over Sri Lanka.

Wet spell

This would take it careening north along the Tamil Nadu coast to sustain the wet spell up till Chennai before sliding into open Bay of Bengal, said a US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecast.

This spell could last until December 23, the NCEP precipitation model said on Wednesday.

It is also likely that the moisture-laden easterlies get acted upon by westerlies blowing into the peninsula.

This could cause the easterlies to drop some moisture over parts of internal peninsula as also the southern fringes of central India, the US forecaster said.

Going forward, it said that widespread light to moderate rains are likely to hang over parts of the peninsula, including the northern belt, during December 24 to January 1, as seasonal easterlies start to blow into the peninsula afresh.

Once again, the core area of weather panning out would be southeast Tamil Nadu-north Sri Lanka coasts from where the rains would get propagated north and west, according to the NCEP.

The prospect of fresh rains is being attributed to the arrival of a weather-boosting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in the upper levels over the equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southern Indian peninsula.

Successful season

The wave would be active from December 22 to 29, according to the Jones MJO model tracker as also Coupled Linear Inverse model of the Earth System Research Laboratory of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

This would effectively mean that what has till now been a successful northeast monsoon (11 per cent surplus all-India as on December 9) would last until the very end (normally December 30).

But the Empirical Wave Propagation technique of the NCEP for tracking MJO movement is of the view that the benign phase (not very intense, though) might last until the last week of January, 2010. But this would bear watching.

An update from the Chennai Met Centre said on Wednesday that the northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu.

Rainfall occurred at many places over Tamil Nadu and at a few places over Rayalaseema.

Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.


Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and a few places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep and South Interior Karnataka.


A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Towards the north, maximum temperatures were above normal C over many parts of central and adjoining east India, north Andhra Pradesh and some parts of west western Himalayan India.

Minimum temperatures were appreciably above normal over parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and interior peninsular India.

Forecast by India Meteorological Department said that isolated rainfall activity is likely over Northeastern States.

Isolated rain or snow over western Himalayan region has been forecast during the next 24 hours. Isolated light rain or thundershowers are likely over central India.

Minimum temperatures are likely to fall over northwest India during the next two days with the passage of a prevailing western disturbance.

Another crack at "sset" - 50% deficient rain for Tamilnadu ??!!!

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 ??":

Again I do not understand how this sset (a reader of is reporting 50% deficient. As per the latest data available Tamilnadu as a whole has received as much as 45cm rainfall for this season and it may be NORMAL[Positive side] rainfall. However there are few locations such as Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Vellore,Salem etc where the rainfall is DEFICIENT. Please refer Disaster Managment and Mitigation Department under Revenue Administration, Government of Tamilnadu site.(authentication required. What you give will lead to factual error.

- We think that it's TIME that Mr. Anonymous should come to Light and show him/herself -
Mercury dips in parts of north India ..
Super NASA shot of Mayon Volcano ..
Major eruption for Philippines' Mayon likely: experts ..
Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 for Chennai & Tamilnadu ?? ..

Warm Air Advection near Chennai

Near 13 Degree latitude there is warm air advection. The Chennai DWR shows [161209/1200UTC] wind veering with height from lower-mid levels. This is may be warm air advection. This may lead to formation of clouds on and off Chennai coast. Lower level EAsterly or NE ly will bring them into Chennai. But lesser amount of precipitation

IMD has noted a RIDGE at 200 hPa level at 9 Degree North Latitude. It seems that the RIDGE had drifted further south to lay marked near Cape Comorin to day [17.12.2009 /0211 hrs IST]
One can expect some inclement weather, cloud formation over Kanyakumari both in Arabian Sea and Bay as the upper divergence above will induce lower level convergence at Cape Comorin sea area.
As expected the "Warm Air Advection" WAA gave light rainfall over on and off [Nellore to]Chennai coast some 1.5 hrs before

Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 ??

After this Cyclone "Ward" and its Remnants... now What??
Winter ??
Is this the LAST of North-East Monsoon - 2009 ?? - NO
COLA-GFS models suggests more and more weather on way for Tamilnadu coast starting from 21-Dec-09.
Take a look.

Latest MJO did not and will not favor for this WET predictions.

Rainfall data for 24hrs ending at 8:30 AM, 17-Dec-09

Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu and active over Rayalaseema.
Rainfall occurred at many places over Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema and at a few places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Telangana and North Interior Karnataka. Dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep.
The following stations recorded heavy rainfall in centimetres.

Orathanadu and Vallam (both Thanjavur dt) 11 each, Alangudi (Pudukottai dt) 10, Parangipettai 9, Vedaranyam and Thirumayam (Pudukottai dt) 8 each and Thozhudur (Cuddalore dt), Aranthangi and Arimalam (both Pudukottai dt) and Cheyyar (Thiruvannamalai dt) 7 each.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:

Kanchipuram, Valangaiman and Kodavasal (both Thanjavur dt), Tondi and Ambasamuthiram (Thirunelveli dt) 6 each, Rapur (Nellore dt), Ongole, Maduranthagam (Kanchipuram dt), Adiramapattinam, Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Polur (Thiruvannamalai dt), Ariyalur, Jayamkondam (Ariyalur dt), Chettikulam (Perambalur dt) and Periyar Dam (Theni dt) 5 each, Chengalpattu (Kanchipuram dt), Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt), Cuddalore, Kallakurichi and Vanur (both Villupuram dt), Karaikal, Kumbakonam, Thiruvidaimaruthur, Thirukattupalli and Thiruvaiyaru (all Thanjavur dt), Mannargudi and Muthupet (both Thiruvarur dt), Sirkali and Tarangambadi (both Nagapattinam dt), Karambakudi (Pudukottai dt), Pudukottai, Chengam and Sathanur Dam (both Thiruvannamalai dt), Ambur and Vaniyambadi (both Vellore dt) and Tirupathur (Sivagangai dt) 4 each, Seetharamapuram, Vinjamur, Udayagiri and Atmakur (all Nellore dt), Nellore, Rayachoti, Rajampet and Pulivendala (all Cuddapah dt), Cheyyur and Uthiramerur (both Kanchipuram dt), Sethiyathope and Srimushnam (both Cuddalore dt), Gingee, Thirukoilur and Ulundurpet (all Villupuram dt), Puducherry Airport, Madukkur and Papanasam (both Thanjavur dt), Thanjavur, Nannilam and Needamangalam (both Thiruvarur dt), Thiruvarur, Kollidam and Mayiladuthurai (both Nagapattinam dt), Perungalur (Pudukottai dt), Manamelkudi, Manimutharu (Thirunelveli dt), Thiruvannamalai, Alangayam and Gudiyatham (both Vellore dt), Coonoor, Perambalur, Vembavur (Perambalur dt), Pullambadi (Thiruchirapalli dt), Karaikudi and Thiruppuvanam (both Sivagangai dt) 3 each and Kavali, Podili (Prakasam dt), Gudur (Nellore dt), Koilakuntala (Kurnool dt), Badvel (Cuddapah dt), Virudhachalam and Panruti (both Cuddalore dt), Villupuram, Thiruthuraipoondi (Thiruvarur dt), Gandarvakottai and Keeranur (both Pudukottai dt), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt), Arani (Thiruvannamalai dt), Arakonam and Melalathur (both Vellore dt), Tirupattur, Harur (Dharmapuri dt), Valparai, Ketti (Nilgiris dt), Uthagamandalam, Devakottai (Sivagangai dt), Sivagangai and Palani (Dindigul dt) 2 each and Darsi, Addanki and Cumbum (all Prakasam dt), Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt), Guntur, Satenapalli (Guntur dt), Vempalli, Lakkireddipalli, Kamalapuram and Prodattur (all Cuddapah dt), Tirupathi Airport, Owk and Srisailam (both Kurnool dt), Tiruvananthapuram Airport, M.M. Hills (Chamarajanagar dt), Pavagada (Tumkur dt), Sriperumpudur (Kanchipuram dt), Tambaram, Pallipattu, Ramakrishnarajupet, Poondi, Red Hills and Thamaraipakkam (all Thiruvallur dt), Tiruttani, Thiruvallur, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Sankarapuram and Tindivanam (both Villupuram dt), Grand Anaicut (Thanjavur dt), Nagapattinam, Illuppur (Pudukottai dt), Kadaladi and Thiruvadanai (both Ramanathapuram dt), Vilathikulam (Tuticorin dt), Vanthavasi (Thiruvannamalai dt), Sholingur and Walajahpet (both Vellore dt), Vellore, Pappireddipatty (Dharmapuri dt), Krishnagiri, Mangalapuram (Namakkal dt), Thammampatti (Salem dt), Kundha Bridge (Nilgiris dt), Lalgudi, Samayapuram and Thuraiyur (all Thiruchirapalli dt), Thiruchirapalli Airport, Thiruchirapalli, Chittampatti (Madurai dt), Periyakulam, Manamadurai (Sivagangai dt) and Kodaikanal 1 each.
90% of Tamilnadu is having high cloud cover today with NO rain , except some coastal zone along North TN ..
RT @amiya001: Chennai is chilling now....i am enjoying the rain
Chennai - Today at present we are experiencing the lowest DAY time temperature of this year-2009 .. 22.8°C , 3:02pm
Tamilnadu at it's very end of North-east Monsoon.. today's showers may be the LAST.
Chennai - After some mild showers from morning.. now we have just mild drizzles... Rainrate will go down rapidly towards evening. ... Only time window left for this system to regain strength is till 7pm IST today (17-Dec-09)
Last remnant of LOW pressure system is dying fast just south-east of Chennai ..
Chennai - a cold morning 22.1°C (6:13am) after a day without sunlight.
Chennai - All night had some mild steady drizzles, Very heavy showers forecast for Chennai as well ..
Very very heavy showers predicted along Pondicherry & North TN coast .. .. is now 8am IST along Pondicherry coast and North Tamilnadu coast.
LOW pressure system has moved north along Tamilnadu coast as predicted by COLA gfs ..