Saturday, June 11, 2011
Low pressure system "98A" now can be called as Cyclone "Keila" .. Heavy rain forecast for S. Gujarat coast.. http://ping.fm/yLyl8
RT @shuvankr: @weatherofindia http://bit.ly/mTk8uA - @shekharkapur Has people in the coastal areas has been alerted about this cyclone? 98A
N.Bay is all ready to throw a first proper Monsoon LOW or circulation in another 24 hrs .. http://ping.fm/CcSwS
Is "98A" LOW pressure system a Cyclone now ?? ... 2:30pm, sat shot shows an EYE of storm.! Is that an EYE ??.. http://ping.fm/WS66n
Mumbai to get flooded in the next few days-Models predictions
I have complied metograms of some of the leading models and all predict heavy rain fall for mumbai in the coming days. Be prepared.
Taken from http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/
Taken from http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/
RT @Shrenit10: @weatherofindia Getting my boat ready to travel through waterlogged mumbai roads http://ping.fm/Y581y
Latest on "98A" and Mumbai - 1pm
Current position of AS-1 system is 19.5N and 71.9E, as on 12.30 pm IST. Sat image of 12.30 pm IST ,Saturday. The centre is in the "dent" in the cloudings.
Clouding spiral band now covering SE quadrant also, Compare with 6 hrs ago. The reason Mumbai and North Konkan getting heavy rain.
As the trend shows a NW track, Rain intensity in Mumbai and Konkan should diminish (not stop) by late afternoon, not before that.
(This, checking on the AS-1 system seems to be going on for ever ! -:)))
The clouding shows the entire Southern periphery of the system to be enveloped alongwith SE now. With a central core, in the clouded periphery showing very heavy rains.
Proper Mumbai should get heavy rains thru the afternoon. See some decrease late afternoon early evening. Flooding sure in prone regions during afternoon. outer townships, may get some extended period of rains.
taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/
taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/
Latest on "98A" and Mumbai
Current position of AS-1 system is 19.5N and 71.5E, as on 4.0 am IST. Sat image of 9.30 am IST, could be read, and a judgement made of the current centre as 20N and 71.5E. Thats my calculation.
(This, checking on the AS-1 system seems to be going on for ever ! -:)))
The clouding shows the entire Southern periphery of the system to be enveloped. With a central core, in the clouded periphery showing very heavy rains.
As per the radar, (and as it is very very difficult to predict the movement, and the cloud movement of AS1), the entire Mumbai region, was covered by rain clouds in the morning. Subsequently, after 9.00 am, the rains advanced into the outer townships like Thane and Panvel.
Proper Mumbai should get heavy rains , at least till 11 am,(flood warning ) but outer townships, may get some extended period of rains (also warned of flooding).
Mumbai received 103 mms of rain at Colaba, most of it post Friday evening.
.
Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/
RT @bheemaupadhyaya: Sky at 11.30 in south bangalore @weatherofindia @akshaydeoras http://ping.fm/hiYit
"98A" - Look where it's heading !! Not even a depression yet !
During the past 24 hrs, the LOW pressure system has moved N-E towards S. Gujarat .
JTWC warns that the system can become a Cyclone in another 36 hrs.
JTWC warns that the system can become a Cyclone in another 36 hrs.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N 69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING NEARER TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SAME IMPEDIMENTS TO DEVELOPMENT THAT HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE PAST WEEK (STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE) ARE CONTINUING. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEVELOPED. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA, THE RESULT OF A MADDEN- JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT, ARE SUSTAINING THE BOUNDARY LAYER CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS MEANDERING UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS, THE NET MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COASTAL DRIFT IS A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE 2 MB 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AT MUMBAI, INDIA. A 101651Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT A SHIP REPORT FROM 50 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC SHOWS ONLY 20 KNOTS. THE 101200Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN THE AGGREGATE, THERE HAVE BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST WEEK, WITH A NEARLY EVEN BALANCE BETWEEN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTAL FACTORS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ABOVE 35 KNOTS, BUT RATHER TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY AND BEGIN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DUE TO THE COMPETING DYNAMICS, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN IN A STEADY-STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE PRESENT INTENSITY AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
COLA model expects the system to move in N-N-E again and after touching Gujarat coast it'll move in W-N-W direction. Before touching S. Gujarat coast it'll attain the Cyclone status, that'll occur in another 36 hrs.
IMD model says that the system will trace the path that of COLA model but the System will never attain the Cyclone status.
HEAVY showers expected along entire Maharastra, S. Gujarat coast for next 48 hrs and more.
Monsoon northern limit as on 11-Jun-2011
The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through 20.0°N/60.0°E,
20.0°N/70.0°E, Dahanu, Nasik, Gulbarga, Rentachintala, Narsapur, 18.0°N/85.0°E, 20.0°N/88.0°E,
22.0°N/90.0°E, Agartala, Shillong, Itanagar and 28.0°N/94.0°E.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over remaining parts of
Bay of Bengal and northeastern States and some parts of Orissa and West Bengal & Sikkim during
next 23 days.
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