Saturday, June 11, 2011

RT @A1BreakingNews: Heavy rain plays Havoc in Mumbai http://bit.ly/mgDwDu
The upcoming N.Bay Monsoon LOW will start on 12-Jun and stay there beyond 17-Jun. this system will ramp up monsoon over entire peninsula.
Showers for Mumbai and Entire Maharastra coast will die down in another max 3 hrs ... Long steady drizzles will be there even till midnight.
RT @max4974: @weatherofindia and its been raining here in Mumbai since past 5 to 6 hours
RT @leelayz: We are taking bets on when the rain will stop. Mumbai rain tip: auto driver says after 9pm
Mumbai - Present wind is from S-S-E, this mean that the Cyclonic system is tracking in N-W direction towards S. Gujarat coast.
Low pressure system "98A" now can be called as Cyclone "Keila" .. Heavy rain forecast for S. Gujarat coast.. http://ping.fm/yLyl8
RT @emkay456: @weatherofindia yes AS-1 seems a cyclone and now tracking NW
RT @Mr_AbhiJeet: @weatherofindia it is eye but can't be full fledge cyclone as it is very close to land
RT @shuvankr: @weatherofindia http://bit.ly/mTk8uA - @shekharkapur Has people in the coastal areas has been alerted about this cyclone? 98A
N.Bay is all ready to throw a first proper Monsoon LOW or circulation in another 24 hrs .. http://ping.fm/CcSwS
RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia Forget cats n dogs. . . Get me home! Amazing rain here in Mumbai. Cheers!
RT @AmeyaKing: mumbai is everything fine. Sincerely - the rain ..., http://t.co/ZNdnuKk
Is "98A" LOW pressure system a Cyclone now ?? ... 2:30pm, sat shot shows an EYE of storm.! Is that an EYE ??.. http://ping.fm/WS66n
RT @thesvt: @shivamchanana 1 hour of rain!! It rained almost 200ml in last 24 hrs in Mumbai @weatherofindia
Chennai - Temp. touched a max of 36 deg C and now 3:32pm having NO sea breeze
Try this for twitter photo stream of today's "mumbai rain" ... http://bit.ly/mLIpng
RT @ikaveri: Mumbaikars !! Hope you have your canoes all spruced up & shiny! It's time to row !
RT @lakshmisharath: Pouring one minute, warm and sunny the next - that's malenadu monsoons for you ; its amazing being out here
RT @ShivamChanana: Mumbai after an hour of rain http://ping.fm/0Djg9
RT @Harsh4d: If rain doesn't stop in next few hours, it will repeat 26/7 in Mumbai. Again. -_-

Mumbai to get flooded in the next few days-Models predictions

I have complied metograms of some of the leading models and all predict heavy rain fall for mumbai in the coming days. Be prepared.












































































Taken from http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/
RT @mharinarayan: Cats & Dogs Mumbai Rain. http://ping.fm/GpjOV
RT @Shrenit10: @weatherofindia Getting my boat ready to travel through waterlogged mumbai roads http://ping.fm/Y581y
Latest on "98A" and Mumbai - 1pm ... http://bit.ly/iP4gZG

Latest on "98A" and Mumbai - 1pm


Current position of AS-1 system is 19.5N and 71.9E, as on 12.30 pm IST. Sat image of 12.30 pm IST ,Saturday. The centre is in the "dent" in the cloudings.

Clouding spiral band now covering SE quadrant also, Compare with 6 hrs ago. The reason Mumbai and North Konkan getting heavy rain.
As the trend shows a NW track, Rain intensity in Mumbai and Konkan should diminish (not stop) by late afternoon, not before that.
(This, checking on the AS-1 system seems to be going on for ever ! -:)))

The clouding shows the entire Southern periphery of the system to be enveloped alongwith SE now. With a central core, in the clouded periphery showing very heavy rains.

Proper Mumbai should get heavy rains thru the afternoon. See some decrease late afternoon early evening. Flooding sure in prone regions during afternoon. outer townships, may get some extended period of rains.


taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/
RT @ani_aset ok this rain is getting scary every minute - Mumbai

Latest on "98A" and Mumbai





Current position of AS-1 system is 19.5N and 71.5E, as on 4.0 am IST. Sat image of 9.30 am IST, could be read, and a judgement made of the current centre as 20N and 71.5E. Thats my calculation.
(This, checking on the AS-1 system seems to be going on for ever ! -:)))

The clouding shows the entire Southern periphery of the system to be enveloped. With a central core, in the clouded periphery showing very heavy rains.
As per the radar, (and as it is very very difficult to predict the movement, and the cloud movement of AS1), the entire Mumbai region, was covered by rain clouds in the morning. Subsequently, after 9.00 am, the rains advanced into the outer townships like Thane and Panvel.

Proper Mumbai should get heavy rains , at least till 11 am,(flood warning ) but outer townships, may get some extended period of rains (also warned of flooding).

Mumbai received 103 mms of rain at Colaba, most of it post Friday evening.

"Heavns have opened up the flood gates and pouring by buckets here in Mahabaleshwar". -Shiraz from Mahableshwar
.
Taken from http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/
RT @tanaishaa: Marine Drive & the Sea Link are two fab spots for rain appreciation in monsoon Mumbai.
RT @bheemaupadhyaya: Sky at 11.30 in south bangalore @weatherofindia @akshaydeoras http://ping.fm/hiYit
RT @Shrenit10: @weatherofindia As I predicted heavy rains in mumbai for past 2 days & It just got even heavier since last night
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda 11.50am, yest 38-27C. Sunny, hot, humid and dry. Will Keila's cloud move this side?

"98A" - Look where it's heading !! Not even a depression yet !

During the past 24 hrs, the LOW pressure system has moved N-E towards S. Gujarat .

JTWC warns that the system can become a Cyclone in another 36 hrs.


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N 
69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED SLIGHTLY 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING NEARER TO 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SAME IMPEDIMENTS TO DEVELOPMENT THAT HAVE 
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST WEEK (STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND 
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE) ARE 
CONTINUING. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEVELOPED. ENHANCED 
SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA, THE RESULT OF A MADDEN-
JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT, ARE SUSTAINING THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS MEANDERING UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT 
OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS, THE NET MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TO THE NORTHEAST. 
THE COASTAL DRIFT IS A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE 2 MB 24 HOUR PRESSURE 
FALLS AT MUMBAI, INDIA. A 101651Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 25-30 KNOT 
SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT A SHIP 
REPORT FROM 50 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC SHOWS ONLY 20 KNOTS. THE 
101200Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED 
BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF 10-20 KNOTS OF 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN THE AGGREGATE, THERE HAVE BEEN VERY LITTLE 
CHANGES TO THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST WEEK, WITH A 
NEARLY EVEN BALANCE BETWEEN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTAL 
FACTORS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT 
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ABOVE 35 KNOTS, BUT RATHER TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND BEGIN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. DUE 
TO THE COMPETING DYNAMICS, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE 
SYSTEM TO REMAIN IN A STEADY-STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE 
PRESENT INTENSITY AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
COLA model expects the system to move in N-N-E again and after touching Gujarat coast it'll move in W-N-W direction. Before touching S. Gujarat coast it'll attain the Cyclone status, that'll occur in another 36 hrs.

IMD model says that the system will trace the path that of COLA model but the System will never attain the Cyclone status.
HEAVY showers expected along entire Maharastra, S. Gujarat coast for next 48 hrs and more.

Monsoon northern limit as on 11-Jun-2011


The   northern   limit   of   monsoon   (NLM)   continues   to   pass   through   20.0°N/60.0°E,
20.0°N/70.0°E, Dahanu, Nasik, Gulbarga, Rentachintala, Narsapur, 18.0°N/85.0°E,   20.0°N/88.0°E,
22.0°N/90.0°E, Agartala, Shillong, Itanagar and 28.0°N/94.0°E.

Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over remaining parts of
Bay of Bengal  and northeastern States and some parts of Orissa and West Bengal & Sikkim during
next 2­3 days.