Sunday, November 02, 2014
The new Low in the Bay, BB-20, scheduled to form on 3rd November as mentioned in Vagaries and likely around the same predicted spot..West of The Andaman Islands.
Initially at 1008 mb, BB-20 will deepen very slowly, as it is just South of the Sub Tropical Ridge. The current STR is strong, and runs East-West upto the Arabian Peninsula.
Initially for the next 3 days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it could be said theat the BB-20 may not go below 1005 mb, hence even the system may not reach above a height upto 700 mb wind levels. Hence may just "loiter" around the Southern Bay for a few days. As the STR gets to dominate the region, we may see BB-20 trying to "scramble" towards the North after Thursday.
Since, the system is far from the coast, we may see a decrease in rainfall in TN . Rains may be scattered in coastal TN and Southern Kerala.
City Forecasts for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th:
Meanwhile, Chennai will may get a thunder shower on Sunday night or Monday early..decrease after Monday evening.
Bangalore: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 28-18c range.
Kolkata: Almost clear...with crisp N/NW winds by evening..Nights going down a bit to 19/20c.....
Mumbai will be sunny and warm...days around 35/36c and nights a shade better at 21c....Sunday's Maximum was 35c.
Pune: Days will be around 31/32c. Nights will be nippy at 15/16c.
N-1, restricted to the upper levels, will not precipitate much in the Indian plains. On Monday, rain/snow will be precipitating in the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, and Northern Pak Punjab. Islamabad can get showers and a cool day on Monday and Tuesday.
But, the WD moves away by Wednesday, without precipitating in the Indian Plains. Will anticipate N-2 on the 9th.:-)
Delhi NCR will see hazy sunshine. Foggy on 4th Night/5th morning.
from vagaries
Initially at 1008 mb, BB-20 will deepen very slowly, as it is just South of the Sub Tropical Ridge. The current STR is strong, and runs East-West upto the Arabian Peninsula.
Initially for the next 3 days, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, it could be said theat the BB-20 may not go below 1005 mb, hence even the system may not reach above a height upto 700 mb wind levels. Hence may just "loiter" around the Southern Bay for a few days. As the STR gets to dominate the region, we may see BB-20 trying to "scramble" towards the North after Thursday.
Since, the system is far from the coast, we may see a decrease in rainfall in TN . Rains may be scattered in coastal TN and Southern Kerala.
City Forecasts for Monday 3rd/Tuesday 4th and Wednesday 5th:
Meanwhile, Chennai will may get a thunder shower on Sunday night or Monday early..decrease after Monday evening.
Bangalore: Partly cloudy with temperatures in the 28-18c range.
Kolkata: Almost clear...with crisp N/NW winds by evening..Nights going down a bit to 19/20c.....
Mumbai will be sunny and warm...days around 35/36c and nights a shade better at 21c....Sunday's Maximum was 35c.
Pune: Days will be around 31/32c. Nights will be nippy at 15/16c.
N-1, restricted to the upper levels, will not precipitate much in the Indian plains. On Monday, rain/snow will be precipitating in the Northern Hills of the Sub Continent, and Northern Pak Punjab. Islamabad can get showers and a cool day on Monday and Tuesday.
But, the WD moves away by Wednesday, without precipitating in the Indian Plains. Will anticipate N-2 on the 9th.:-)
Delhi NCR will see hazy sunshine. Foggy on 4th Night/5th morning.
from vagaries
How South Bay will shape up in next 3/4 days ??
An E-W elongated circulation is seen covering over S-W to S-E Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/7qWsO
During next 36hrs, the circulation over S-W-central Bay is expected to persist with a elongated nature.. http://ow.ly/i/7qWzI
Now we have 2 scenarios forecast for 2 models...
GFS expects a Depression to form over E Bay on 5-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7qWBc
If GFS model comes out true, then the RAIN over Tamilnadu will vanish from Tuesday !!
NAVGEM model suggests the same like GFS for mid-week ... the present elongated circulation to tilt from N-E to S-W from E-Bay to S-W Bay.
After that NAVGEM suggests a depression to take shape over S-W-central Bay itself on 6-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7qWIz
ECMWF model like GFS... suggests a E Bay depression on Thursday ... http://ow.ly/i/7qWOU
CMC / GEM and WRF model is going with NAVGEM model ... suggests a Depression along 10N over S-W-central Bay, 4/5-Nov http://ow.ly/i/7qWRj
During next 36hrs...
HEAVY T showers for S,S-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S,central Kerala.
For N,central,S-E coast Tamilnadu, Chennai ...
Moderate showers expected on today midnight into morning of Monday.. http://ow.ly/i/7qWZr
From Monday evening, less showers expected for N,central coast Tamilnadu and Chennai.
We'll monitor S-W-central Bay on 3,4-Nov.
Weather Instagram at November 02, 2014 at 10:50AM
#chennai - 10:49am, light rain now over Polichalur zone. Moderate rain inside city. #weather
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