Chennai - 9pm, moderate to heavy rain pushing into city. A long wet night ahead into morning.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Chennai - 6pm, drizzle started over Polichalur zone. Rain intensity expected to increase towards early hours of Saturday.
Heavy rain seen upto 70 to 100km S-E,E from city.
Drizzle possible in next 1.5 hr!
Chennai - 10:25am, warm now. Heavy rain has pushed up to 150 km over SE, E and ENE.
Expected to push in around late-evening.
Will it ??
If the consolidation of S Bay circulation begins from Saturday, then there'll be less or no rain along Tamilnadu coast and Chennai.
As of now, models suggest moderate to heavy showers along central , N coast Tamilnadu, Chennai from today evening till Sunday. .!
Present S Bay elongated circulation has persisted and drifted slightly to west... http://ow.ly/i/7posc
During next 2 or 3 days this S Bay circulation is expected to consolidate into Marked LOW over the same zone.
This system after 3-Nov is expected to drift N-W and develop into a Depression or even Cyclone Priya and strike central, N Tamilnadu coast
Due to this present S Bay circulation...
Showers forecast along N,central-coast Tamilnadu and #chennai .
Due to "expected" consolidation of the system over S Bay.. the forecast showers for Tamilnadu coast on today, 1-Nov "may not materialize".
This is the model prediction of Cyclone Priya or Deep Depression striking central, N coast Tamilnadu on 7-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/7pp2H
IR at 1am suggests that the entire circulation is exposed now and moderate convective activity seen only along N-E bands of the system.
Now it's just a Deep depression.
Cloudy skies with scattered light rain already prevailing over Gujarat, S,S-W Rajasthan and S-E Pakistan.
In next 24hrs... scattered moderate showers expected along S,S-W,W Gujarat, S,S-E Pakistan and into S,S-W Rajasthan.
As of now "NO Cyclone landfall expected over W,S-W Gujarat coast"
Thursday, October 30, 2014
4:55pm, Gloomy in Nagercoil with occasional drizzle till now from morning.
During past 24hrs, the Severe Cyclone has degraded to a Tropical storm now.
Pressure has risen from 959mb to 995.1mb.
Present wind is around 90 kmph.
12:30pm, IR shows that the system has tracked N-E and convective activity is also weak.
In next 42hrs, this is expected to weaken further and fizzle out over Sea itself near to Coast of Kutch and S Pakistan.
Moderate showers expected over S,S-W,W Gujarat and over S,S-E Pakistan on 31-Oct and 1-Nov.
Looks like the easterlies have picked up strength today in Karaikal.
10:33AM,Gusty wind here.
Chennai - wind has picked up over low-levels but the direction is from NE. In next 24 hrs it'll become ENE and rain will start pushing in.
Moderate showers will start pushing into central , N Tamilnadu coast , #Chennai from morning or noon of Friday.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
4pm, Cyclone Nilofar has started to degrade ... and has drifted North during past 12hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/7o2XP
4pm, Check the latest ADT analysis of Cyclone Nilofar, pressure around 972mb ... "its going down" .... http://ow.ly/i/7o31d
Nilofar - Models expect the Cyclone to weaken rapidly (36hrs) and "may" reach Kutch, S Pakistan as a LOW on 31-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/7o3jG
Low-level circulation over S Bay persists and the winds along Tamilnadu coast is from North due to this... http://ow.ly/i/7nWGU
Circulation expected to drift into S-W Bay in next 2 days.. this'll change the wind direction along TN coast to E-N-E !!
N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is expected to get RAIN from this Bay circulation only after noon of Friday !
Today evening and 30-Oct... scattered T showers expected for S,S-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWNW
NAVGEM model expects the present S Bay circulation to persist even till 3/4-Nov along S-E coast Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWRx
NAVGEM model even suggests that the system will become Depression and move into Gulf Mannar, S Tamilnadu on 5-Nov !! http://ow.ly/i/7nWTb
But GFS expects a fresh circulation over S-E Bay on 2-Nov and track West .. http://ow.ly/i/7nWV7
Analysis show that Cyclone Nilofar is still a Severe Cyclone with pressure around 961.4 mb.
Winds upto 180 kmph.
But the latest Satellite IR, visible shows its W,S,S-W quadrants are getting exposed (or less convective activity)
Now the system is under grip of upper-level westerlies, in next 12/18 hrs, the system is expected to weaken due to less moisture supply and drift N-E towards Gujarat.
Most of the models suggest that Nilofar will track N-E from now on and weaken and make landfall as Cyclone / Depression along Kutch, Gujarat and along S Pakistan coast on 31-Oct.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Scattered showers may push into N,central-coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai around morning, mid-morning.
5:30pm, less T showers today over Tamilnadu. T showers seen over S Tip, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nikQ
A weak W.D circulation over N-central Pakistan is giving scattered showers over N Pakistan, Kashmir, N Punjab.. http://ow.ly/i/7nix8
During next 24hrs, the W.D circulation is expected to drift E-N-E and vanish.
5:30pm, Severe smog visibility less than 500 meters in Kabarwala, S Punjab... ow.ly/i/7niRC
3:25pm, Rain in Lahore, Pakistan... Due to WD... ow.ly/i/7niZk
1pm, Visible shot shows a GOOD eye and good convective activity around center, N-E outer bands.
At present, Nilofar is a severe cyclone with minimum pressure at 982.2mb (have weakened during past 12hrs).
During past 15hrs, the system has drifted N-N-W ... present position is 16.12 N , 61.25 E.
In next 42hrs, under the influence of W.D trough the cyclone is expected to drift North and then N-E.
Latest models continue to suggest a N-E re-curve after nearing 20N and expected to intensify and then weaken before making landfall along Kutch, Gujarat on 1-Nov.
It may rapidly dissipate while reaching coast !
Dry cold wind from land is engulfing the system. Thus prohibiting TC enhancement.
 The lack of clear upper air divergence or its shrinking flange is a indicator
 This same times may alter the track. Winds from STH from Asiatic regions [i.e one at Mongolia , China ] is extending its tentacles from NE to Indian Continent including TN.
 Yet another is just N-NW of India and influencing 'NILOFAR' movement.
 As of now the track is N NW and to change course to Indian West Coast to cross between Panjim to Gulf of Khambat.
Monday, October 27, 2014
S-S-E Bay is having a weak low-level circulation and it is slowly inching towards tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/7mwe7
No intensification forecast for this S-S-E Bay circulation during next 2 days.
This S-S-E Bay circulation is expected to push in HEAVY rain along Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai from wednesday evening or Thursday.
Meanwhile, scattered rain expected for S Andhra coast, Chennai on tomorrow morning and before noon.
Tomorrow evening, midnight - more HEAVY rain expected to push into S-Andhra coast, #Chennai, N,central-coast, N-E Tamilnadu
Again scattered T showers for W,S,W-ghats,N,N-central Tamilnadu and W-ghats Kerala.
During past 6hrs, the cyclone is showing signs of weakening as DRY air is slowly encircling South, S-E quadrants.
Position almost same as previous update ... 15.13 N , 62.16 E.
Pressure has risen to 974.7 mb
Winds has reduced to 150 kmph.
8:30pm, IR imagery shows, good convective activity over S,S-E,E quadrants and over its N-E outer bands.
Projected track remains the same, but it may weaken to a Cyclone or even a Depression before making landfall along Kutch, Gujarat on 31-Oct.
Analysis indicate that Cyclone has drifted north during past 14 hrs, but it has intensified rapidly.
Now, its now a Severe Cyclone.
Present location ... 15.15 N , 62.30 E
Pressure is now around 959.5 mb
Winds gusting to 185 kmph
GFS, HWRF, NAVGEM models a Kutch, Gujarat landfall as a Cyclone on 31-Oct.
The present system is expected to drift N, N-N-W and take a N-E turn after reaching 20N. This re-curve is expected due to a mid, upper-level W.D trough and the due to vanishing of Anti-cyclone over Arabian peninsula.
1:30pm, Visible shows a EYE and convective activity over N-E,S,S-E quadrants.
#Chennai - 11:40am, Sharp showers / T showers expected to pop or push in from W-N-W during next 2 / 3 hrs.
Some rain already over city !
Sunday, October 26, 2014
HEAVY T showers for W,S,N,N-W,W-ghats Tamilnadu, W-ghats Kerala, S,N-W Karnataka and S,central Maharastra.
27-Oct, early morning..
Shower activity again for S Andhra coast, #Chennai, N,central-coast Tamilnadu.
HEAVY T showers expected over N-W Tamilnadu, S,S-W Karnataka, Bangalore.
Analysis indicate that Arabian sea system has intensified further into a Cyclone. If it sustains for another 6hrs, it'll be named as "Nilofar"
Latest position 14.24 N , 62.48 E
Pressure around 994.1 mb
Winds upto 100 kmph.
3pm, Visible shot shows, good convective activity along center, S,S-W,S-E quadrants.
After nearing S Oman coast on 28-Oct. Due to upcoming mid,upper-level W.D trough along 66E and dipping upto 29N .. the Cyclone is expected to re-curve North-East.
After that, 04A is expected to track towards S Pakistan (Karachi) and Kutch region in Gujarat.
Now, many models suggest this course for 04A.
Meanwhile, the wind rush towards 04A is continuing thru S,central Andhra coast, Maharastra and N,N-W Karnataka. So more scattered HEAVY rain ahead for these zones.
Wind rush is happening thru Andhra coast and N,N-W Karnataka, Maharastra to Arabian sea system 04A ... http://ow.ly/i/7lEHN
Meanwhile, a weak easterlies has pushed into S-E Bay along with a weak circulation in the same zone.
During next 2 days, the easterlies along Tamilnadu coast is expected to be very weak and less rain expected along coast.
Due to wind rush to 04A...
HEAVY scattered rain for S,central,W,E Maharastra, N Andhra, N,N-W,N-E Karnataka today ! http://ow.ly/i/7lEQK
Scattered rain expected to persist along N Tamilnadu coast, Chennai and S Andhra.
Heavy scattered T showers expected over W-ghats, interior Tamilnadu.
12:45am, Wind rush is giving heavy rain for S Andhra coast, W,N-W Karnataka, S-W Maharastra.. http://ow.ly/i/7lEX7
Latest analysis show that 90A has drifted North and has intensified into a Depression now.
Position is 13.46 N , 62.44 E
Pressure is around 1000.3mb
1am, IR shows moderate convective activity around the system
JTWC, GFS and HWRF expects the system to move North, N-W and then to N-E during next 3 days.
JTWC warning at 8:30pm
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED DESPITE BROKEN AND UNORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A RECENT 251356Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASING STRUCTURE SEEN SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 04A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG A LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THIS LOBE OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RETRACT WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING AND DRIFTING NORTH WHILE A TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH MODIFIES THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND DEFLECT THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER WHICH, ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND FORCE THE SYSTEM TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD OUTFLOW AND VWS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BUT THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
 The clouds spread over TN are outer periphery moving from SW direction (to NE) and is to give heavy rainfall over west interior districts of TN.
 Again it is [like] SWM winds from Indian Ocean.
 NEM is to reorient after the drift of cyclone to far west.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Latest analysis show a intensification to "almost" a Depression now, but the present pressure is around 1003mb.
Presently located at 11.7 N , 60.9 E.
Most models predict a intensification to a Cyclone in next 48hrs and slowly drift W-N-W or N-W.
Either the COAMPS model or the HWRF model can become true !!
COAMPS suggests a Cyclone and track W-N-W towards Yemen coast during next 3/4 days !
HWRF predicts a N-W movement, intensify to Cyclone and reach up to S Oman coast around 29/30-Oct.