Thursday, November 01, 2007

Cyclone 05A update

TC 05A has shifted westward Wednesday and has begun to through high, thin clouds down wind to southeastern Arabia. This is well shown by way of this infrared cloud shot from the IMD.

While one might believe that that big, bright (and thus cold and high on this infrared shot) mass marks a strong, growing storm. Not true. By the JTWC, 05A was a minimal tropical storm (highest sustained winds of 35 knots, or 65 kmh) as of 1200 hours, GMT, Wednesday. The low-level center was east of the big, bright cloud mass--a sure marker of strong easterly wind shear. Such shear makes meaningful grow of such storms tough, indeed.

Numerical forecasts are faster in dealing with 05A than had earlier been true. Thus, the low level center is forecast ashore Saturday or Sunday somewhere eastward from Salalah, Oman. The ECMWF, however, seems to dissipate 05A over water rather than steering its ashore. And it seems clear that weakening is shown. For their part, the JTWC weaken and ultimately dissipate 05A over water south of Salalah Friday and Saturday.

So impact upon land (mostly Oman) will hinge upon whether 05A bodily makes landfall (even if no longer a TC) or dissipates off shore. The former would favor heavy falls of rain near the landfall with hit-or-miss thunderstorms inland. The latter would have less impactful rain. Thursday should hold more clues as to whether 05A will make a landfall.

Patterns of down stream moisture owing to 05A suggest at least a day or two of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms over Uman, UAE, easternmost KSA and eastern Yemen. First rains would happen Friday in southern Oman.

Another clear day

Another clear morning for Chennai, I think this is going to be the feature for the day.

-- there was still a low-level whirl and weak low off Andhra Pradesh, South East India. Today, no such low is seen. Now, tropical moisture has fanned out over southern and eastern India to give rise to some showers and thunderstorms today, Wednesday. A setting favoring more such showers and thunderstorms, albeit with daily waxing and waning, is forecast to hold for a few more days with no new Bay of Bengal low forecast through next mid week.

IMD report (31-Oct-2007)

Northeast monsoon has been Active over South Coastal Andhrapradesh.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Coastal Andhrapradesh, at many places over Telangana and at a few places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamilnadu, Mainly dry weather prevailed over Rayalaseema and dry weather prevailed over Coastal Karnataka.

Ichapuram (Srikakulam dt) and Cuddalore recorded a heavy rainfall of 11 and 7 centimeters respectively.

The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimetres are:

Devarakonda (Nalgonda dt) 6, Kandukur (Prakasam dt) 5, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Adirampatnam, Manamelkudi, Kalingapatnam, Narasapur, Machilipatnam, Mandasa and Sompeta (both Srikakulam dt) and Macherla (Guntur dt) 4 each, Vedaranyam, Arantangi and Karambakudi (both Pudukottai dt), Shenkottah (Tirunelveli dt), Devakottai (Sivagangai dt), Bapatla, Palasa and Tekkali (both Srikakulam dt), Bhimavaram and Koderu (West Godavari dt), Guntur, Tennali, Atchampet, and Satnapalli (all Guntur dt), Addanki and Podili (both Prakasam dt),Aryankavu (Kollam dt), Bangalore Airport 3 each, Villupuram, Arimalam (Pudukottai dt), Kuzithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Gannavaram, Pathapatnam and Verraghatam (both Srikakulam dt), Parvathipuram (Vizianagaram dt), Mangalagiri, Piduguralla and Rapalli (all Guntur dt), Darsi and Yerragondapalam (both Prakasam dt), Mahabubnagar, Miryalaguda and Ramannapet (both Nalgonda dt) and Nelamangala (Bangalore Rural dt ) 2 each and Thirukoilur (Villupuram dt), Puducherry Airport, Pattukottai (Thanjavur dt), Allankudi (Pudukottai dt), Nagerkoil, Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt),Visakhapattinam, Visakhapattinam Airport, Ongole, Hyderabad Airport, Ranasthalam (Srikakulam dt), Cheepurupalli and Terlam (both Vizianagaram dt), Anakapalli, Bheemunipatnam and Chodavaram (all Visakhapattinam dt), Amalapuram (East Godavari dt), Bhimidole, Tadepallegudem and Tanaku (all West Godavari dt),Nandigama, Rentachintala, Khammam, Bhongir and Suryapet (Nalgonda dt), Chevella, Ibrahimpatnam, Tandur, Vikarabad and Pargi (all Rangareddy dt),Kozhikode Airport, Kochi Airport, Kayankulam (Alapuzha dt),Thiruvananthapuram Airport, Bangalore 1 each.

Madurai Airport recorded maximum temperature of 35 degree Celsius in the region.

Arogyavaram recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 15 degree Celsius in the plains of the region.