Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Its raining in spells from 2:45pm onwards.
Very heavy showers forecast for next 48 hrs, all along North Tamilnadu coast and Delta coast..
Showers will be heavy & in spells and sometimes it will accompany with THunder.
Here's the latest satellite shot taken at 11pm, 4-Nov-09
Satellite shows a amazing odd picture with the HEAD of LOW system just south of Kanyakumari and we can see a circulation tail cutting across Tamilnadu and this system is pulling heavy moisture as NE monsoon into Tamilnadu coast.
Warning:: Very heavy showers instore for TN coast.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated isolated to scattered rainfall activity over south peninsular India during the next 24 hours before scaling up in intensity later.
Forecast valid until Saturday said that scattered to fairly widespread rains will unravel over south peninsular India and coastal areas of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh with isolated heavy falls over coastal Tamil Nadu.
As if on cue, the trough of lower pressure (not amounting to a low-pressure area) over southwest Bay of Bengal has shifted westward to around the Comorin area and neighbourhood on Monday.
The other trough of low over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal has shifted westward to lie over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Mirinae has started impacting Vietnam, according to the London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group and the Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page of the US Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC).
Mirinae is expected to quickly die out on the Vietnam-Cambodia border, but a watch is being kept for signs of any regeneration in the adjoining Bay of Bengal.
The FNMOC has also kept under watch the churn over southeast Arabian Sea around the Comorin area. Wind speeds were estimated at around 15 knots (27 km/hr) on Monday, a couple of notches short of being officially designated as a low-pressure area.
This is forecast to become a 'low' as per the outlook of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
But, on Monday, it has downgraded the previous day's forecast of a cyclone rearing from this system and going on to make a landfall over Mumbai-South Gujarat.
The 'low' may at best undergo a round of intensification, clamber up north along the west coast, as was originally envisioned.
It will make landfall over Mumbai around November 11 and track north-northeast to enter central India in line with the movement of the predominant westerly system dipping low into the region.
What is now seen as robbing it of cyclone-status is the formation of another system to the southwest but within the confines of the same trough, with which it would have to share available moisture.
The Chennai Met Centre said in its update on Monday that rainfall occurred at a few places over Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
Forecast up to Wednesday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over interior Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Lakshadweep and south interior Karnataka.
Satellite imagery on Monday showed convective clouds over parts of southeast Arabian Sea. The cloud over the region had led to a rise in mercury over the west coast and even over west-central India.
This was attributed mainly to northeastery-to-easterlies pulled in across the peninsula by the churn around the Comorin areas. This churn is forecast to move northwest and set up a 'low' off the Kerala coast.
On Monday, maximum temperatures were above normal by 3 to 6 degree Celsius over the west coast; 2 to 5 degree Celsius over Gujarat and west Madhya Pradesh; 2 to 4 degree Celsius over Rajasthan, coastal Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; and 2 to 3 degree Celsius over interior Maharashtra and the Northeastern States.
Ahead of the arrival of the western disturbance, minimum temperatures are above normal by 3 to 6 degree Celsius over most parts of Rajasthan and by 2 to 3 degree Celsius over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, northwest Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.