Latest position at 13.3N 83.3E. With pressure dropped to 985mb and winds at 50 knts.
Possible area of striking coast near Kakinada, on 19th. evening, and then tracking along the East coast. As expected, it will turn to North-Northeast on hitting landmass.
Will strike the coast as Cat1 TC, and may maintain this intensity for at least 24/36 hrs. due tto its proximity to the sea.Heavy supportive clouding seen in interior Karnataka.
Rainfall upto 250 mms initially expected along A.P.coast, and 50-70 mms in interior A.P. and North T.N. coast.and winds will reach 70 knts aalong the shores.
It would have been good and greatness of nature if cyclone had crossed TamilNadu. TN would have received good water. In fact last year 2009 May cyclone "Alia" originated from south east Indian ocean and it was anticipated to cross TamilNadu but didn't and striked Calcutta/Bangladesh. Similar trajectory is followed by "Laila". In fact last year cyclone led to disturbance in southwest monsoon, and 2009 received weak monsoon. What about this cyclone effect on monsoon?
ReplyDeleteI anticipated "Laila" to re-curve right from my first post, due to the W.D. effect. About the monsoon this year, I have put up my views on the blog, that is about the arrival status. Quantum...still difficult to estimate ..
ReplyDeleteDear sset,
ReplyDeleteIf the cyclone tracks of the Month of May is viewed most of them will take re curvature and hit Bangladesh or Myanmar. "Alia" was not an exception. Similarly to day [20 May 2010 / 2135 hrs IST] also it is to think that "LAILA' will follow the suite even after the land fall.
However LAILA has grown through out its journey up to 13-14 km height and slopped SW wards. Most of the rain bands formed NW-SE direction and gave copious rain fall in that route.
Usually when a cyclone eye tends to cross the coast [in the first half portion of a circle / or elongated circle]the winds at northern most crossing point will be North Easterly. Further to its SOUTH,the winds will be NORTHERLY. Still further to south,winds will be North Westerly and WESTERLY respectively. When the center of eye crosses it would be a calm wind. Later,when the other half portion of the circle crosses,winds will be South Easterly at the northern most point, further to its South positions Winds will be Southerly to South Westerly respectively.
Usually Bay storms in May has varied effects on monsoons. There were instances where monsoon was bountiful and there were examples where monsoon was normal or worst.
Storms formed during May and September MAY indicate the weak or lesser strength in monsoonal wind. [Need NOT be the entire monsoon.]
I don understand anything..:-)
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteI don understand anything..:-)
9:59 AM
That is pure meteorology man!
Oho..now i understand! :-)
ReplyDelete