Saturday, September 24, 2011
6:30pm, Satellite photo is NO different from morning... heavy rain continue over S-E Uttarpradesh and N-E MP.. http://ow.ly/i/hVlR
For next 3 days.. Central coastal Tamilnadu may get some isolated T.showers from today till 27-Sep.
Latest IMD GFS expects a strong circulation over E. Bay on 1-Oct..???
According to COLA models, the present circulation will weaken in that place and the remnant will move East and disappear on 29-Sep
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared that the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and north Arabian Sea on Friday.
The withdrawal line passed through Amritsar, Hissar, Ajmer, Deesa and Porbandar.
The western end of the monsoon trough is running close to the foothills of Himalayas, indicating weak or nil activity over northwest India.
The eastern end is still being kept active by Thursday's depression that has since weakened into a well-marked low-pressure system.
The eastern end passed through Gorakhpur, Daltongunj, centre of the low-pressure system (Jamshedpur) and Balasore before dipping southeastward into east-central Bay of Bengal.
The withdrawal process is now expected to run into residual monsoon activity over east and northeast India.
Interior peninsula too is forecast to be devoid of any major rain activity, though the east coast could witness some wet weather principally as an extension of the emerging storminess northwest Pacific and South China Sea.
True to forecasts, a monsoon depression has already sprung up afresh over northwest Pacific close to northeast Philippines.
Global models indicate the possibility of this system dropping anchor in the South China Sea basin where it would intensify into a tropical storm.
This is forecast to send in a ‘pulse' across Indochina into the Bay of Bengal to lit up the waters there and trigger rains along the southern Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts and into the peninsula.
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that the well-marked ‘low' over east India would trigger isolated heavy rainfall over east Uttar Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya on Saturday and Sunday.
An extended forecast valid until Wednesday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would break out over parts of east and northeast India.
The weather is expected to continue to remain mainly dry over many parts of northwest and adjoining central India.
Withdrawal of SW Monsoon
a) Withdrawal from extreme north-western parts of the country is not attempted before 1st September.
b) After 1st September:
The following major synoptic features are considered for the first withdrawal from the western parts of NW India.
i) Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.
ii) Establishment of anticyclone in the lower troposphere (850 hPa and below)
iii) Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour imageries and tephigrams.
Yesterday the southwest monsoon had withdrawn from some parts of Punjab,
Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and north Arabian Sea.The withdrawal line passes through
Amritsar, Hissar, Ajmer, Deesa, Porbandar, Lat.21.0°N/Long.65.0°E and