Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Dr Nils-Axel Mörner: Arctic environment by the middle of this Century

The UK Met Office and UK climate research unit - the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (UEA-CRU) just a few days back warned that the sun was slipping into hibernation and would likely to stay that way till end of this century. The last time it happened in earth’s history, it resulted in a Little Ice Age wherein the climate was characterised by cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food!

And why should UK Met Office and CRU pronouncements raise eyebrows? Together they produce the HadCRUT global temperature dataset, mainly relied upon by the IPCC for their reports. Moreover, most of the historical global temperature dataset used by other leading climate research centres like NOAA and GISS depend on the CRU dataset as their base, the same targeted by hackers of the Climategate fame.
Consequently, their prediction of an impending Grand Solar Minima has fuelled interest in related topics like the Little Ice Age. This is a paper by Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner published in the journal Energy & Environment last year, republished by us.

Morner, perhaps the best known authority on global sea level rise warns: At around 2040-2050 we will be in a new major Solar Minimum. It is to be expected that we will then have a new “Little Ice Age” over the Arctic and NW Europe. The past Solar Minima were linked to a general speeding-up of the Earth’s rate of rotation. This affected the surface currents and southward penetration of Arctic water in the North Atlantic causing “Little Ice Ages” over northwestern Europe and the Arctic.

Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner, as head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm University, worked with sea level problems for 40 years in areas scattered all over the globe; published 546 scientific papers and 10 books on the subject. He was the former President of the INQUA Commission on Neotenotics (1981-89) and INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003.) He headed the INTAS Project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003). In 2000 he launched an international sea level research project in Maldives.

chennai - Due to upcoming easterlies, from 3-Feb.. Humidity and LOW temp. are going to be on high side, Wind from East. http://ow.ly/i/raCb
Srinagar can expect HEAVY snow from evening of 3-Feb till 6/7-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/raAM
chennai - Min. temp. will fall again to 20 deg C from tomorrow till 3-Feb.. and then rise again due to moisture push from easterlies.
Strong easterlies.. heavy rain for N-E,E Srilanka from 3-Feb and some spill-over showers for S. Tamilnadu on 6-Feb.. http://ow.ly/i/rarB
Upcoming 3-Feb, W.D is going to be Super Strong.. Heavy Rain / Hails / Snow expected over N, N-W India from 3 to 10-Feb. http://ow.ly/i/raqR
3-Feb, W.D, Anti-cyclone and Easterlies ... http://ow.ly/i/rapG
On 3-Feb, a strong W.D to reach N-W kashmir, strong anti-cyclone over N.Maharastra and a strong Easterlies will reach S. Tamilnadu.
W.D is over Kashmir and moving E-S-E.. a strong W.D on cards on 3-Feb. Showers continue over E. MP and Chatisgarh.. http://ow.ly/i/raoi
chennai - South suburbs got sharp showers from 3am to 4am... Anna University, Chennai Airport recorded 2 cm till 8:30am today
Chennai - a rare sharp shower now 3:15am over polichalur

Monday, January 30, 2012

chennai - Today morning ... "Rained in Guindy today at 8:45 am "
Showers witnessed over Central and E.central India till 8:30am of 30-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/r46S
Due to easterlies, Showers possible for S. Tamilnadu on 5,6-Feb ... !
The present Western disturbance will stay till 1-Feb and next W.D expected to be STRONG and will reach on 3-Feb.. http://ow.ly/i/r44X
An easterlies expected to reach Tamilnadu coast on 4-Feb.. most of its rain will be over E,N-E Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/r44t
Western disturbance has reached N-W kashmir while E.Madhyapradesh, Chatisgarh continue to get scattered showers.. http://ow.ly/i/r43A
Western disturbance has reached N-W kashmir while E.Madhyapradesh, Chatisgarh continue to get scattered showers.. http://ow.ly/i/r43A
On 29-Jan, Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 4.15pm, Heavy wind, chilly and partially cloudy sky.. a pic http://ping.fm/L4d5J

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Next western disturbance will reach N-W Kashmir on 31-Jan .. http://ow.ly/i/r0EE
chennai - Humidity is going to be high for next 2 days.. so expect warm mornings till 31-Jan
chennai - Today had a warm morning 23.9 C (3:31am) and All thru the day had a high humidity!
Moisture content can be seen over entire Tamilnadu and E.central India .. http://ow.ly/i/r0AJ
A strong easterlies are expected to emerge over S-E Bay on 2-Feb.. this system may reach central Tamilnadu coast on 5/6-Feb
From 1-Feb, Strong N-westerlies will start again to push down from N-W upto S. Extreme India.. So COLD and DRY again upto S. India !
Today as well, showers can be seen over Orissa, Chatisgarh, Jharkand .. http://ow.ly/i/r0yR
As expected, scattered rain was recorded over E.central India till 8:30am of 29-Jan-2012.. http://ow.ly/i/r0y8
Cold wave again over N,N-W India:: Ground frost occurred over isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Night and day temperatures falling again over N, N-W India from yesterday evening !
A strong easterlies will emerge over S-E Bay on 2-Feb.. which may reach Central Tamilnadu coast with Rain... http://ow.ly/i/qQSH
Fiji Cleaning Up After Floods http://ow.ly/8IiSH
chennai - Low temp. was 20.7 C (5:20am) and reached a max. of 28.9°C (11:55am).. Today as well low level wind is from East
Today, easterlies moisture is seen over S. Tamilnadu and All over Srilanka .. http://ow.ly/i/qPxU
RT @rajugana: Baroda 11.15am, chill morning, Clear skies and sunny, gradual rise in day temp. a pic http://ping.fm/Dr8fb

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Rainfall till 8:30am of 26-Jan, "Showers over central India" ... http://ow.ly/i/qKFy
@venkateshatluri >> chennai - today humidity is on higher side .. will go DRY again from 28-Jan.. and wind will become N-N-E
chennai - Day temperature is expected to increase by 1 deg C from 30/31-Jan .. http://ow.ly/i/qKEm
Today, As expected E.central India is having cloudy day and scattered showers .. http://ow.ly/i/qKD7
Cold wave and 2 or 3 western disturbance to continue over N,N-W, Central and E.central India ... http://ow.ly/i/qKAP
Present western disturbance will die in another 24 hrs.. next one will reach Kashmir on 30/31-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/qKyL
Weak easterlies is very near to N-E Srilanka coast.. and some moisture will be pushed into S. Tamilnadu on 27,28-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/qKx6
chennai - records a 20 deg Low and a max of 28.8 C (11:46am)

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Snow in Sahara desert !! ... http://ow.ly/8FTe9
Nine of the top ten warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000.. http://ow.ly/8FT9k
7:30pm, Showers and heavy cloud cover can be seen over E.Madhyapradesh .. http://ow.ly/i/qF8c

Snow in Sahara desert !!

Wondering why Mysore registered the coldest minimum temperature in 120 years recently? Steven Goddard who administers the bog Real Science give us a clue: "Global temperatures are plummeting, and the temperature recorded by AMSU satellite of 251.858K on January 19 was the coldest of any day since at least 2002.”
It’s all happening. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has finally flipped to its strongly negative mode and if it stays that way, a deep freeze is on its way that would plunge global temperatures to lows, last seen during the 1945-77 global cooling cycle the very least. A foretaste of winter to come during February is already indicated by some of these very recent events:
Snow in Sahara Desert

Snow fell Tuesday in the province of Bechar in the Sahara Desert in western Algeria. A 24-hour cold spell brought snow and rain to the region. Strong wind blew the snow across roads and buildings in the province of Bechar. The weatherman at the National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) recorded sub-zero temperatures at Jebel Jais area of Ras Al Khaimah and forecast that these conditions are set to continue for the rest of the week. People who live in the region said the snow was good for the palm trees because it killed parasites. Bechar is located in the northern Sahara, about 36 miles south of the Moroccan border. Click arrow to watch video.
Extreme Cold Wave in the Gulf countries

According to the National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) forecast for today, minimum temperatures are set to dip to 0°C in the UAE’s mountainous regions while internal areas could see temperatures dipping to a nippy 5°C and coastal areas could see minimum temperatures of 13°C.

The NCMS forecast reads: “Cold weather during day times to very cold during night. The cloud amount will increase at times, especially over the northern areas, with chance of light rain. Winds will be west to northwesterly, moderate to fresh in general. Sea will be moderate to rough with wave height 3 - 5 / 6 ft offshore.”

Unaccustomed to the chill, UAE residents are putting up a brave front as a cold wave continues to spread across the length and breadth of the country, with extreme weather conditions sweeping mountainous regions and the country recording its lowest temperatures for the year yesterday. Rough weather has prompted a warning to beachgoers across the UAE to refrain from venturing into the sea. The UAE’s met department has predicted that the rough weather will continue until Friday

Leh: minus 22.2 degrees Celsius

Leh town in Ladakh recorded the coldest night of this season as mercury settled at a low of minus 21.8 degrees Celsius, an official of the Met department said. Nearby Kargil town recorded a low of minus 21.0 degrees Celsius, making it the second coldest place in the state.In Kashmir Valley, Pahalgam resort was the coldest place at minus 16.5 degrees followed by Gulmarg Skiing resort at minus 16.2 degrees Celsius, the official said.Qazigund, the gateway town to Kashmir, recorded a low of minus 12.4 degrees Celsius followed by Kokernag resort at minus 9.9 degrees Celsius.Srinagar city, the summer capital of the state, saw mercury dipping to minus 5.0 degrees Celsius last night.  

 An Igloo Village in Davos

The Occupy protests that blossomed across the globe in the fall of 2011 are popping up at the annual meeting of the rich and powerful in Davos Switzerland. Using the weather to their advantage, protesters are carving out blocks of snow and shaping them into igloos that are surprisingly warm, if not an effort to make. They hope to make develop an "igloo village" near the Davos train station.

Deep freeze kicks in as Arctic Oscillation turns strongly negative

The first half of winter has clearly been much milder than the last couple of winters, as a very strong polar vortex has controlled the pattern, and shielded Europe from any sustained cold. Recently, the vortex has weakened and the AO turned strongly negative as seen above, which would allow seasonably cold weather across much of Europe in February if not earlier.

According to NOAA as seen in the above diagrams the AO index describes the relative intensity of a semi-permanent low-pressure centre over the North Pole. A band of upper-level winds circulates around this centre, forming a vortex. When the AO index is positive and the vortex intense, the winds tighten like a noose around the North Pole, locking cold air in place.

A negative AO and weak vortex … allow intrusions of cold air to plunge southward into North America, Europe, and Asia. … the index has been mostly positive in wintertime since the late 1980s. The Arctic Oscillation has strengthened in recent decades, contributing to the unusual warmth over the Northern Hemisphere land masses.
The first sign of a much weakened polar vortex is that the Arctic Oscillation (AO), also referred to as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) has recently switched to a strongly negative mode - the first time in four months.Britain blasted by snow & ice yesterday is example of this. Read here.

The AO is an atmospheric circulation pattern in which the atmospheric pressure over the Polar Regions varies in opposition with that over middle latitudes (about 45 degrees North) on time scales ranging from weeks to decades. The oscillation extends through the depth of the troposphere. During the months of January through March it extends upward into the stratosphere where it modulates in the strength of the westerly vortex that encircles the Arctic polar cap region.

The NOAA's AO prediction for the next two weeks shows a strong negative trend which typically in the past has brought colder weather for Europe. The bottom chart for Europe shows the anomaly for the coming week. The middle chart shows the foret.cast for the week after. It’s going to get even colder. Europe this year may get a hard winter after all – it may be just arriving late. The lower chart of central Asia shows below normal temps are forecast for almost every region for the coming week, and the middle chart shows even deeper cold for the week after, as we saw is the case for Europe. In fact it’s rare to see that much cold over such a vast continent

However, AO's cousin the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) sill remains weakly positive (graph to right) but ensemble mean (graph to the left) suggests models are indecisive which mode NAO will go by February. But since the polar vortex is rapidly giving way, the odds favour the NAO too slipping into strongly negative mode sometime in February or even earlier.

Atlantic over the past 50 years,. h Other studies have found correlations between NAO and Indian monsoon.  “Interannual and long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall” (Dugam, Kakade and Verma, Indian Institue of Tropical Meteorology, 1997 [http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2068184]) investigated 108 years of NAO / monsoon data and found that:

“The decadal scale analysis reveals that the NAO during winter (December-January-February) and spring (March-April-May) has a statistically significant inverse relationship with the summer monsoon rainfall of Northwest India, Peninsular India and the whole of India. The highest correlation is observed with the winter NAO. The NAO and Northwest India rainfall relationship is stronger than that for the Peninsular and whole of India rainfall on climatological and sub-climatological scales.” 

Atmospheric Blocking

When the polar vortex weakens, the polar jet stream slows and meanders in a form that allows the extension of low pressure lobes much farther to the south. These can become stationary for days and block the normal circulation of the atmosphere. The negative AO/NAO is associated with a slowed polar vortex and polar jet stream. When the jet stream slows, it meanders in a waveform pattern (Rossby waves). The general effect is illustrated below:

Blocking has a lot to do with the severity of winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and the AO has a strong ability to control blocking. A blocking event can be defined as a week or more of excess pressure in the mid-troposphere together with an anticyclone at the surface. … blocking occurs preferentially during the low AO phase in Alaska, the North Atlantic, and Russia. [http://www.jisao.washington.edu/wallace/ncar_notes/] Barriopedro et al (“Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.113, 2008 [http://idl.ul.pt/davidbarriopedro/2008%20Barriopedro%20et%20al.pdf]) found that:

“Solar activity modulates the preferred locations for blocking occurrence over both Oceans, causing local frequency responses therein. Over the Pacific Ocean high/low solar activity induces an enhanced blocking activity over its eastern/western part. Atlantic blocking occurrence increases for both (high/low) solar phases, with a spatial dependent response confined to western/eastern Atlantic. … Low solar Atlantic blocking episodes last longer, are located further east and become more intense than high solar blocking events.”
 Taken from >> http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com 
Arctic report card 2011 ... http://ow.ly/8FHHI [VIDEO]

Nine of the top ten warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000

Nine of the top ten warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000. Last year was another one of them, coming in at 9th warmest since 1880.
The map above shows temperature anomalies, or changes, by region in 2011; it does not depict absolute temperature. Essentially, the map shows how much warmer or cooler each region was in 2011 compared with an averaged “base period” from 1951–1980. The line plot shows yearly temperature variations (from the base period average) for every year from 1880 to now. (For more explanation of how the analysis works, read World of Change: Global Temperatures.)
On January 19, 2012, researchers at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) released their annual analysis of global temperatures, noting that Earth’s land and ocean surfaces continue to experience higher temperatures than several decades ago. The global average temperature for 2011 was 0.92 degrees Fahrenheit (0.51 Celsius) higher than the mid-20th century baseline.
“We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting,” said GISS director James Hansen. “So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Niña influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the ten warmest years on record.”
The difference between 2011 and the warmest year (2010) is 0.22 degrees F (0.12 C). This underscores why scientists emphasize long-term trends, as opposed to year-to-year variations. Because of the large natural variability of climate, scientists do not expect annual temperatures to rise consistently each year. However, they do expect a continuing rise over decades.
Higher temperatures today are largely sustained by increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. These gases absorb the infrared radiation emitted by Earth and release it into the atmosphere, rather than allowing it to escape to space. As the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased, the amount of energy “trapped” by these gases has led to higher temperatures. The carbon dioxide level was about 285 parts per million in 1880, when the GISS global temperature record begins. By 1960, the average concentration had risen to 315 parts per million. Today it exceeds 390 parts per million and continues to rise.
Hansen said he expects record-breaking global average temperature in the next two to three years because solar activity is on the upswing and the next El Niño will increase tropical Pacific temperatures. “It’s always dangerous to make predictions about El Niño, but it’s safe to say we’ll see one in the next three years,” Hansen said. “It won’t take a very strong El Niño to push temperatures above 2010.”
  1. References

  2. NASA (2012, January 19) NASA Finds 2011 Ninth-Warmest Year on Record. Accessed January 19, 2012.
  3. NASA Earth Observatory (n.d.) World of Change: Global Temperatures. Accessed January 19, 2012.
  4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (2012, January 19) GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. Accessed January 19, 2012.
Taken from  >> http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov 
Tropical Cyclone Funso over Mozambique Channel .. http://ow.ly/i/qE7Q
chennai - min. temp will be on higher side till 26-Jan and it'll be back to 19 deg C from 27-Jan.
Present week's COLD temperature trend over N,N-W, Central India to repeat till 10-Feb .. http://ow.ly/i/qDWT
Central, E.central India may get some scattered showers from Tomorrow till 29/30-Jan ... http://ow.ly/i/qDWr
A weak easterlies is nearing Srilanka coast, will reach S. Tamilnadu coast on 27-Jan.. Odd mild showers expected over S. Tamilnadu
A fresh Western disturbance has started over Kashmir .. will last till 27/28-Jan
chennai - Today morning was mild at 21.7 C (6:16am) and Now 2:17pm having Low clouds from E-N-E. Nothing threatening though !!
Mini and max temp. would rise slightly over parts of N-W India by 2 to 3 C over adjoining central & east India during next ­2 days.

Snow in Sahara desert; UAE under Cold Wave; Igloo village in Davos as Global Temperature Plummets

Wondering why Mysore registered the coldest minimum temperature in 120 years recently? Steven Goddard who administers the bog Real Science gives us a clue: "Global temperatures are plummeting, and the temperature recorded by AMSU satellite of 251.858K on January 19 was the coldest of any day since at least 2002.”
It’s all happening. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has finally flipped to its strongly negative mode and if it stays that way, a deep freeze is on its way that would plunge global temperatures to lows, last seen during the 1945-77 global cooling cycle the very least. A foretaste of winter to come during February is already indicated by some of these very recent events:

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

chennai - Day temp. may touch 30 deg C from 30-Jan ... http://ow.ly/i/qyGB
Srinagar will have SNOW on 26,27-Jan ... http://ow.ly/i/qytD
Next Western Disturbance will start over Kashmir on 26-Jan and prevail for 2 days.
Due to this upcoming western disturbance .. Central and E.central India can get showers from 26-Jan till 30-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/qysy
N-W Gujarat, S. Pakistan and W,S-W Rajasthan are having a cloudy day with showers around .. http://ow.ly/i/qy0i
Another western disturbance lies over north Pakistan and adjoining northeast Afghanistan
as an upper air system, will reach N-W India 26-Jan
Minimum temperatures fell by 2 to ­4 deg C over some parts of Jammu & Kashmir  and
Himachal Pradesh
chennai - Today also had a 19 deg morning.. and max. temp. was 28.9 C (2:31pm) and now 3:28pm temp. going down again.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Present W.D over Kashmir will stay for another 24 hrs and another will march in on 26-Jan.. and will last till 28-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/qu3j
chennai - temp. now 9:12pm is 24.3 C and going down.. can expect another 19 deg Morning.
Cold wave along with ground frost conditions are prevailing at a
few places over Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, W.Uttar Pradesh, N. MP
Today a strong anti-cyclone has formed over E.Maharastra and N.Andhra.. will move East to N-W Bay and stay till.. http://ow.ly/i/qtwz
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 10.45am, Clear skies, sunny, foggy morning, temp 27-13C.

No respite from biting cold till March; February maybe winter at its harshest; above normal monsoons, floods highly likely this year

The colder than normal, if not harsh winter in South Asia can be attributed to the combined effect of La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), oceanic processes in the Central Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Both factors tend to draw the cold air of higher latitudes to the tropical and sub-tropical Asia.

The La Niña appeared to have peaked this month with NIÑO3.4 values at 0.8 deg C and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value at +12.8. The La Niña has started to markedly weaken with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming autumn season. But as the late John Daly, a great among climatologists, observed, the Southern Oscillation is the primary driver of year-to-year global temperature, with a 6 to 9 month lag time.

Accordingly, while the La Niña has peaked and weakening, its impact on global temperature is just starting to kick in. We are now seeing the La Niña effect beginning to be the prime driver of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Winter had been mild within the mid-latitudes till mid January because Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its cousin North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had been in their positive phases. But a pattern change has taken place with winter intensifying despite the AO and NAO remaining largely positive as the La Niña is beginning to swamp their effect.

Joe D'Aleo reports: "The Northern Hemisphere came hard out of the box early with well above normal snow. Then a strng [polar vortex] took over and preventing the snow from expanding very far into the lower 48 and west into Europe. A breakdown of that vortex is underway and snow has started to fall in the northern US and in Europe. Here is the current snowpack."

Friday, January 20, 2012

Tamilnadu coast may get a weak easterlies around 25/26-Jan... this may raise the min. temp over Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/qgdJ
Next western disturbance will reach N-W India, N-W kashmir on 23-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/qgc8 >> going to be a weak one.
Dense FOG to continue over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, N. Rajasthan, N. MP, Uttarpradesh and Bihar for another 2 days.
Ground frost would occur at some parts of Punjab, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and north
Rajasthan during next 48 hours.
A strong Anti-cyclone expected to form over N-E Andhra on 22-Jan... which'll fan more N-westerly towards South.. http://ow.ly/i/qg8W
Moisture and cloud activity seen over S. Kerala and S. extreme Tamilnadu due to present UAC South of Kanyakumari.. http://ow.ly/i/qfXs
Today, a weak UAC can be seen over South of Kanyakumari.. this'll last another 12 to 24 hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/qfVa
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 9.20am, Clear skies, mild chill breeze, temp dipped to 25-9C.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

chennai - records a low temp. of 18.6 C (4:47am).. and temp. now 6:23pm is 26.8 C and going down slowly.. Another 18 deg C morning expected
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 10.00am, Clear skies, sunny, and cold wave sweeping over this part, temp dipped to 25-12C.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

chennai - now 9:24pm temp. is 23.9 C and going down slowly.. can expect a 19 deg C morning.
Visibility in dense fog would reduce to 100 m or below over Punjab,
Haryana, north Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during next 48 hours.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda, 10.30am, Clear sky, sunny, chill, gradual rise in day temp could be felt. temp 32-12C.
chennai - Airport records a low temp of 17.6 deg C today morning.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

chennai - temp. now 10:03pm is 21.8 C and still going down fast !!
Rainfall till 8:30am of 17-Jan-2012... western disturbance effect over North India ... http://ow.ly/i/pZXe
Foggy conditions will continue over N-W India !
As present western disturbance has died down.. Minimum temperatures would fall by 2 to ­5 C over N-W, central and E.central India in 24 hrs
Today morning Low temp. in Tamilnadu.. Dharmapuri - 13 deg C and Vellore - 14 deg C
chennai - Today morning's low was 17.7 C at Nungambakkam and Airport records 16.9 C
chennai - present 8:04pm temperature is 23.9 C and going down.. can expect a 18 deg C morning.
@nizaminks >> W.D == Western Disturbance . We'll stop using short forms / jargon in our future updates. Thanks
Next strong W.D for N-W India is expected around 22-Jan.
Present W.D has moved into Uttarakand and Nepal.. will die in another 36 hrs .. http://ow.ly/i/pXYI
N,N-W India FOG map at 2:30am ... http://ow.ly/i/pXwJ
chennai - records a low temp of 18.9 C (6:35am)

Monday, January 16, 2012

W.D in full swing over Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakand and Punjab ... http://ow.ly/i/pSNN
FOG conditions over N-W India as of 3am... http://ow.ly/i/pSMP
chennai - records another 20 deg C.. 20.2 C (6:37am)

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Strong, Cold and DRY N-Westerlies is being pushed upto S. India from N-W India
W.D has started over N-W India, Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/i/pOZ0
chennai - *** Happy Pongal *** ... records a morning low temp. of 20.3 C (6:26am)

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Western Disturbance J-2: This system is expected to precipitate snow/rain over North Pakistan, North Indian States of Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday/Monday and Tuesday. Rain showers will occur in upper Sindh in Punjab plains in Pakistan on Sunday/Monday.
Isolated hailstorms will occur in the plains of Northern India, i.e. Punjab,Haryana and Western U.P. on Monday.
Precipitation spreads to Western Nepal on Monday. Kathmandu will be cloudy. Drop in night temperature on Wednesday/Thursday.

2. Cloudy conditions with strong west winds over Rajasthan on Sunday.

3. J-2 will not survive beyond Tuesday.
Cold conditions due to NW winds in Saurashtra and Kutch on Monday 16th.
Tuesday /Wednesday cold wave with drop in night temperature by 3-5c in Northern, Central and Western India. Cold N/NW winds.
Lows expected during the week; Srinagar: -5c, Amritsar: 0c, Delhi: 3c, Mumbai:12c, Pune 8c, Nagpur: 10c.

Map on Vagaries Site.

MeT office warns of heavy snowfall in Himachal's hills

Shimla, Jan 14 (PTI) The weather office today warned of heavy rainfall, snowfall and hail storms in various parts of Himachal Pradesh during the next 48 hours. "Heavy to very heavy snowfall is likely to occur at isolated places in the higher hills. Heavy rainfall is likely in mid-hills and hailstorms in lower hills during the next 48 hours," Director of MeT office, Manmohan Singh said. The Western Disturbance as an upper air system with its centre over North Pakistan and East Afghanistan will affect the state from this evening onward, he said. The weather office's prediction comes at a time when the normalcy is yet to be restored fully in the hill state after snowfalls in the first week of January.

Meanwhile, cold wave prevailed in the region inspite of marginal rise in mercury as strong icy winds continued to sweep the region. The sky remained partially overcast and pale sun failed to warm up the region. Keylong in tribal Lahaul and Spiti district was coldest in the region at minus 12.7 deg C followed by Kalpa at minus 6 deg C, Manali minus 4.2 deg C, Solan minus 0.2 deg C, Bhuntar 0.2 deg C, Una 1.2 deg C, Sundernagar 1.6 deg C and Dharamsala and Shimla both recording 3.1 deg C. The high altitude tribal areas reeled under biting cold wave with the minimum temperatures ranging between minus 17 and minus 28 deg C. Natural sources of water like lakes, springs, rivulets and tributaries of small rivers were frozen in these areas.

THANE land fall-A post cyclone review

It has been ascertained by many that VSCS "THANE' had crossed coast just south of Cuddalore close to and over Uppanar estuary.  The centre pressure would be around 968hPa. There are records of maximum wind speed as 105kmph [app:50-53 knot] . It entered Uppanar Estuary and moved in NWly direction.  It gave copious rainfall on 31.12.2011 over NW parts of Tamilnadu and climbed up to North India via 77 Deg longitude to merge with WD.  Similarly it induced a low near Kumari Kadal. Rainfall was also realised at many places over Kumari, Nellai ,Kollam and TVM districts on 31.12.2011

Friday, January 13, 2012

BAY will not produce any Cyclone / Depression / LOW at least till Feb-2012 end.
Today's strong UAC over S-E Bay will stay there till 16-Jan.. without Moving WEST .. http://ow.ly/i/pHdU
S-E Corner of Bay is having an UAC .. there's NO threat from it because a strong N-westerly is present over most of Bay. http://ow.ly/i/pHdn
chennai - temperature going down fast now 6:03pm.. 25.6 C ... 21 deg C night ahead!
Ground frost may occur at a few places over the hill ranges of Nilgiris district (Tamilnadu) during next 2 nights
Cold wave conditions would prevail over parts of Telangana (Andhra) during next two nights.
From 15-Jan.. Day temp. may rise due to W.D over N-W India !
Dense fog has been observed over some parts of Punjab, E.Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Sub­Himalayan Bengal and N-E states
Cold wave conditions would continue over some parts of central and east India during next
48 hours
Rain also forecast for Punjab, Himachal and Uttarakand on 15,16-Jan.. ... http://ow.ly/i/pGfq
Heavy rain/snow expected over Kashmir on 15,16-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/pGfq
A W.D approaching N-W India.. will start from evening of 14-Jan and continue till 17-Jan.!
Entire South India will go dry from tomorrow.. NO moisture remnants from 15-Jan .. http://ow.ly/i/pG96
chennai - having a mild and DRY day so far (1:31pm).. 28.1 Deg C >> showers expected today !

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Cyclone Thane Long term Rehabilitation ... http://ow.ly/8qGAT
On 11-Jan, Kanyakumari district of S. Tamilnadu got heavy showers.. Pechiparai recorded a heavy rainfall of 7 cm
On 10-Jan... S. coastal Andhra and S. Tamilnadu towns saw 2 localized cloud bursts.. Kavali - 17 cm and Sivagiri (Tirunelveli dt) - 13 cm
chennai - showers possible today as well and more chances till 14-Jan... http://ow.ly/i/pAMR
After a long time... entire South India will go dry after 15-Jan... and Days will become MILD with very less humidity !!
W.D will reach N-W, W. Kashmir on evening of 14-Jan... and will stay till 17-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/pAMb
Showers possible for S.coastal Andhra and N, N-E Tamilnadu including chennai ... on today,13,14-Jan.. http://ow.ly/i/pAM3
Moisture over S and S-E coastal India remain today as well .. http://ow.ly/i/pALy

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

DPG Appeal: Cyclone Thane Long term Rehabilitation

The real tragedy of cyclone ‘Thane’ which hit south west Tamil Nadu on 30 December is that it has already been forgotten by the media.

Yet, over 50 lives have been lost, an estimated one million people (yes, one million) have been affected: a whopping 200,000 homes destroyed, hundreds of fishing boats lost and tens of thousands of hectares of crops damaged.

The Development Promotion Group (DPG), a Chennai based NGO immediately sent out a team to assess what they could do to help. DPG blends an experience that combines long-term development work with quick and effective response to disasters. They are a well established NGO, having worked in South India since 1986 and on several occasions responded to disaster situations – including the tragic Tsunami of 2004. Today, DPG launched its appeal for long term rehabilitation work.

tourism "Kudremukh National Park" ... http://ow.ly/8pxtF
chennai - In main city it's raining ,, and temp. has dropped to 24.1 C
Big pattern changes in winter coming? ... http://ow.ly/8pucd
RT @tweet_tac: @weatherofindia rained in Rajiv Gandhi Road (OMR) too chennai

Big pattern changes in winter coming? Arctic Oscillation Flips to Negative

Our December 15th post Winter may have had a mild start but likely to be progressively harsh appears to be turning out prophetic. Big pattern changes in the global weather are on the way and we in India during the last few days got just a small taste of things to come during the last few days.
A strong western disturbance over the western Himalayan region caused cloudiness over northwest and adjoining central India. If snowfall played truant in Himachal Pradesh on Christmas and New Year's Eve, then it made up for the lapse with a vengeance. Snow walloped Shimla, Kufri , Narkanda , Chail , Manali , Chamba and Dalhousie. 

In fact the entire tribal belt of Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, Kullu and Chamba districts witnessed heavy snowfall. Shahpur and parts of Hamirpur among other places also experienced snowfall and sleet after a gap of more than three decades. And it's snowing in 'Queen of Hills' Shimla as well. This after 8 years! The minimum temperature recorded in the hill station fell to minus 0.8 degree C.

Dharamsala received snow after a gap of 35 long years. Located at a height of only 1,350 metre and the abode of Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, Dharamsala was totally covered in white, making the town more picturesque. In fact the snowfall was unusually heavy with McLeodganj, its tiny hamlet, known for its strong British heritage, receiving some of the heaviest snowfall on record.
Even Nurpur experienced snow. This after 45 years. But what really took weather forecasters by surprise was heavy snow lower down in Kangra town. This was after a gap of a whopping 67 years! The peculiarity of Kangra, Nupur and Dharmasala are that these are foothills where snowfall is not normally expected because of their low elevation. But Himachal Pradesh is not complaining. Good amount of snowfall has not only rejuvenated its glaciers, but also proved beneficial for its tourism industry, with scores of tourists making a beeline to the hill state.  Hotel accommodation and flights are reportedly fully booked.

It gets even better. Probably for the first time in the recorded history of Punjab, several villages of Pathankot and Hoshiarpur districts experienced snowfall on Saturday morning. The two districts normally experience maximum temperature of up to 45 degrees Celsius in summer.  The Met office however dismissed the event as a 'freak' happening due to change in wind directions. 

Last Friday, parts of New Delhi and Amritsar woke up to be greeted by a hailstorm.  It is not that hailstorms are a rarity in these parts of the country. It usually takes place during the transition period where winter gives way to spring. This is when temperature rises initially in the southern parts of India, giving rise to thunderstorms and squally weather, including hailstorms in Northern India. The problem is that we are not in this transition period and in fact only now entering into the peak winter season. 

So what could have triggered the hailstorms? My friend, Rajesh Kapadia who administers the blog Vagaries of the Weather explain that conditions for snow are a) surface temperatures are below freezing upto 2 deg C  b)  atmospheric temperatures are below freezing c)  air contains a minimum moisture level.  Atmospheric temperatures were below freezing but conditions of surface temperature and minimum moisture levels for snowfall were not meet to create snow and so the western disturbance impact on New Delhi and Amritsar probably took the shape of hailstorms. This of course remains a logical conjecture. 

Meanwhile, more than 3 feet snow received over the past two days closed down Kashmir's main highway, stranding hundreds of travellers. The snowfall on either side of the Jawahar tunnel, blocked the only road link, connecting Kashmir to rest of the country, and traffic has been suspended. Trucks carrying supplies to Kashmir haven't moved a bit in the past three days because the Jammu-Srinagar highway that connects the Valley with the rest of India is closed due to heavy snowfall and landslides. 

The heavy snowfall also knocked out power and telephone lines after the 220 KV-Kishanpur-Pampore and 400 KV Kishanpur-Wagoora transmission lines snapped on other side of Jawhar Tunnel due to snowfall.  Against the required 950 MW of electric power being supplied to the valley, the availability this time is pegged at 120-150 MW. Among the available power, 40-50 MW is being supplied to consumers while rest is being used for running essential services. The plight of residents made worse as J&K is already facing shortage of fuel- LPG and kerosene- for cooking and heating purposes.

Temperatures at Srinagar plummeted to minus 5.5 degree C, the coldest night in the city this winter. Due to the extreme cold, water taps in most areas of Srinagar were frozen in the morning.  Picturesque tourist spot Gulmarg recorded a low of minus 16.5 degree C. Qazigund’s low dipped to minus 8.4 degree C followed by Kokernag (minus 6.3 degree C), Pahalgam (minus six degree C) and Kupwara (minus 5.6 degree C).
The Dal Lake was frozen at many places too. Kulgam town in south Kashmir received 2 feet of snow while Srinagar,  around 5 inches of snowfall since last evening. High-altitude areas including the ski resort of Kupwara district which recorded night temperature of minus 0.3 degrees Celsius, had 14.4mm of fresh snow till early morning.

Pahalgam, received fresh snow of 8cms during the time while the world famous hill resort in south Kashmir, recorded a low of minus 1.8 degree C. Kargil district in Ladakh witnessed the first heavy snowfall of the season with Kargil town recording 2 inches of snow while Drass had about 3.5 inches on the ground this morning. Taisuru and Rangdum also recorded 2 inches snowfall. In Leh, temperatures plunged to minus 18.8 deg C.

India is experiencing a harsh winter characteristic of a La Niña winter. So how does rest of the world shape up this winter?


Let’s look at the latest satellite temperature imagery for today.

From these temperature maps it is evident that most of the extreme cold is confined to Canada, Russia and Northern China.  Winter by and large had been mild in most other areas within the Northern Hemisphere. So mild that huge swathes of Northern India are currently colder or at comparable temperature to much of Western Europe.  

The table illustrates that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by itself is not sufficient conditions to determine the character of winters within the Northern Hemisphere. More important is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index. The erratic AO can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña's or El Niño’s typical impacts.
Technically, the Arctic Oscillation is a measure of atmospheric pressure variations at sea level north of 20N latitude. Whenever an Arctic high or low develops, it affects weather thousands of miles away.

Last year the so-called "Arctic fence" that keeps cold air penned up in the north broke down, allowing frigid air to spill south. So far that's not happening this winter which should explain the mild winter at the mid latitudes. However, the AO is a fickle—not seasonal—phenomenon and can switch erratically between the two modes.

As seen in the NOAA graph, the AO has been in its positive phase for the last 4 months, being particularly very strong all through December and first week January this year. The exception was a couple of days around the middle of October and before Christmas when it briefly flipped to its weakly negative mode. But each time it showed a strong streak of resilience - rebounding quickly to its strongly positive mode again. 

But yesterday, it flipped back to its weakly negative mode again as that Northern India and Pakistan received a snow packing wallop.  At the same time, in Europe, Austria found itself buried under 4 feet of snow, creating chaos and disruption of traffic and power supply. Snowfall trapped some 15,000 tourists at ski resorts on the Arlberg Mountain on Friday, and while some roads are open there, others remain closed. High winds are also whipping the nation, and closed an important rail line. Most snow has fallen in the western states of Tyrol and Vorarlberg.  52 people were rescued by an army helicopter there. An important rail line that connects Vienna and Innsbruck with western Austria and Switzerland was to be closed until Sunday. Two rail lines that connect western Austria with Germany were also closed.

These two events may look unconnected but they need not.  They occurred the same time as the AO flipped to it weakly negative mode.  But the moot question is whether a negative AO is just a blip or something longer in duration?

So what do weather ensemble models indicate? As seen in the above graph, some show the AO index rebounding and going positive while others (the majority) have it trending negative and ending below zero.

Two weathermen think on similar lines. On Twitter, former Accuweather and now with WeatherBell, legendary weatherman Joe Bastardi observed: “10mb [stratospheric] warming on European [model] over the pole by 360 hrs reaches 50C!!!! This is a huge event and will have [northern] hemisphere cold implications…By that I mean, something major is about to happen.” 

Henry Margusity Accuweather also anticipating a major change similarly observed: “This is such an amazing weather pattern evolving. I told all the [meteorologists] that we have a lot of winter ahead of us.”

It was left to Dave Tolleris of Wxrisk to make a more nuanced statement about a possible pattern change. He stated:  “All this being said this does NOT mean the winter of 2011-12 is about to turn nasty for everyone and or the Northeast is going to see big snows or noreasters. …It might turn that way but we don’t know that yet. But the old winter pattern of 2011-12 that has featured sustained warm/ mild dry pattern is going to end soon. And whatever the new pattern … won’t be the same as what the last 45-60 days have been.”

The Washington Post’s blog, Capital Weather blog reacting to these twitter posts:

Much of the excitement by Bastardi and Margusity probably stems from a strong stratospheric warming event that is now showing up on the model guidance and how it might lead to more blocking and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). Remember, a negative AO means a cold and sometimes snowy weather pattern over the eastern U.S...

The pattern change ideas stem from research by Baldwin and Dunkerton published in a 2001 “Science” article which documents how there is coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere and that sudden stratospheric warming events can have an impact on the AO (by helping modulate the strength of the polar vortex), flipping it negative... 

That research notes that once the warming propagates down sufficiently to produce a weather pattern favouring a negative AO (lots of high latitude blocking), the pattern tends to last for about two months. That probably explains why some forecasters think that if the AO goes negative it might stay that way through much of the remainder or the winter....

The potent polar vortex event and positive AO that has been going on for over two months already appears to be on the wane with or without help from the stratosphere. This strong vortex event has lasted longer than most such events so the forecasts of it weakening may have some merit.”

What all this means is that a big pattern change in winter outlook  is due in the next 7-14 days and the odds favour a strong negative AO. If Europeans and Northern Americans have put away their woollies and not stocked up on their heating oil, then it is time they did so in a hurry as a harsh winter is speeding their way and when it does will probably not go away for the next 2-3 months. 
In India, if you thought that winter would have peaked by month end, you could be likely to be wrong.  Instead, the cold wave could turn even harsher. Much of the cold wave and snow in the country is linked to what called western disturbance (WD), which is a term used in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal to describe an extra-tropical storm, originating in the Mediterranean that brings sudden winter rain and snow to the northwestern parts of the Indian subcontinent. 

This is a non-monsoonal precipitation pattern driven by the Westerlies. The moisture in these storms usually originates over the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Extra-tropical storms are a global, rather than a localized, phenomena with moisture usually carried in the upper atmosphere (unlike tropical storms where it is carried in the lower atmosphere). Once their passage is hindered by the Himalayas, they are unable to proceed further, and they release significant precipitation over the southern Himalayas. In winter it brings snow and sleet. 
As a strong negative AO brings cooling to the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, this in turn creates stronger WDs that in turn create higher likelihood of snow, sleet and plunging temperatures.
Then again, the AO is so unpredictable and could prove everyone wrong. 
taken from http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com