RT @vishalpatil: @weatherofindia its started raining heavily again in pune (3:45pm)

Belying predictions, monsoon withdraws in bulk .. http://ow.ly/2OAYp

RT @krisbeats: A very cool afternoon in chennai.. Its days like these I really wish I had a bike :)

Nagercoil - Getting reports of sharp intermittent showers from Midnight till now 1:30pm.. Final south west showers.. !!

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Remnant of the LOW pressure "95 B" to loom along N. Tamilnadu & S. Andhra coast till 11-Oct.. this will create more showers along the coast.

The LOW pressure area "95 B" will make cross along central Andhra coast on 7-Oct.

Doppler radars predicts monsoon rainfall with utmost accuracy .. http://ow.ly/2OyLa

Low pressure over central Bay... "95 B" ... causing heavy showers along S. andhra, N. TN coast and Chennai .. http://ow.ly/i/4ke1

12pm, Very heavy thunder cell formation seen along Coastal Andhra & N. Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/4kc9

Chennai - Very heavy shower now 1pm in Saidapet... with occasional thunder... Very dark now.

RT @fabwrite: @weatherofindia I hear thunder... It's pouring on Santhome High Road!!! (12:55pm)

Chennai - Very heavy cloud formation now 12:44pm... showers on way!

Heavy final South-West showers for S. kerala coast will continue till 9-Oct.

Heavy showers forecast for N. Tamilnadu, Chennai and S. Andhra coast from evening of 6-Oct.. will continue till 9-Oct. http://ow.ly/i/4ka3

Chennai - Woke up to a heavy high cloud cover and now 12:10pm, having good low cloud formation and movement from N-N-E, wind is from West

ECMWF has gone to the extent of predicting a follow-up ‘low' over Central Bay of Bengal around October 13,.. http://ow.ly/2Ox5B

IMD outlook suggested that the ‘low' over East-Central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood could become more marked during the next two days

Monsoon on retreat sets up active trough across S-E Asia

A chain of at least four low-pressure areas extending from South China Sea and linking Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea has set up an active monsoon trough having north-easterly to easterly winds turning south-westerlies to the south.

The seasonal anti-cyclone sitting over North-West India and a barrage of north-easterly winds along its southern flanks is helping the cause of this monsoon trough packing seasonal winds on retreat from the North-East.

NORTH-EAST MONSOON

The North-East monsoon may well and truly have made its onset over South China Sea and the littoral nations in South-East Asia.

It might just be a matter of time before it calls up along the South-East coast of India to the West across the Bay of Bengal if the build up in upstream South China Sea are any indication.

The Thailand Met Department has spoken about in detail about the active monsoon trough that lies across upper southern and eastern Thailand.

This has already triggered torrential rain and heavy falls over much of this South-East Asian country.

Severe weather and flash floods have been warned of over the next two days.

BAY ‘LOW' FORMS

The Andaman Sea would witness very cloudy with fairly widespread thundershowers and isolated heavy rain.

The south-westerly winds flanking a freshly new low-pressure area that sprung up over the Bay of Bengal one day ahead of forecasts on Monday sped up to 35 km/hour, the Thai Met Department said.

Meanwhile, on Monday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the monsoon withdrawal process continued to stay put along Central India with weather systems from peninsular seas ‘drawing a line.'

WIDESPREAD RAIN

An existing ‘low' in the Arabian Sea basin may have weakened but it was still able to bring fairly widespread rainfall over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, South Konkan and Goa, apart from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

The rains were scattered over Tamil Nadu, Interior Karnataka and Madhya Maharashtra during this period.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-producing) clouds over many parts of Central and South Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea (thanks to the new ‘low' in the Bay) and over South and East-Central Arabian Sea.

An IMD outlook suggested that the ‘low' over East-Central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood could become more marked during the next two days.

In fact, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is predicting a long haul for the system, with a dipping westerly trough from North-West India expected to scoop up the system just off the Chennai-South Andhra Pradesh coasts and cause it to careen off the coast launch for an eventful landfall over Orissa-Gangetic West Bengal coast.

The ECMWF has gone to the extent of predicting a follow-up ‘low' over Central Bay of Bengal around October 13, though the final call is not yet out.

An IMD warning for heavy weather valid for the next two days has said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over coastal areas of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh from Tuesday.

Forecast until Thursday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over South Peninsular India, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and adjoining Maharashtra and Goa.

Scattered rain or thundershowers is likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and the North-Eastern States during the next two days and increase thereafter.

Isolated to scattered rainfall may occur over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand from Tuesday onwards. Mainly dry weather would prevail over North-West and adjoining Central India.

Extended forecast until Saturday has suggested fairly widespread rainfall over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and the North-Eastern States.

RT @vishalpatil: @weatherofindia its raining cats and dogs in pune with thunderstorms and lightning (8:46pm, 4-Oct-10)

Monsoon deficits.. Jharkhand (-41 per cent); Gangetic West Bengal (-31 per cent) East Uttar Pradesh (-23 per cent) .. http://ow.ly/2OwYW

Buzz builds in Bay ahead of likely ‘low'

India Meteorological Department (IMD) too has joined the outlook of international weather models for a brewing low-pressure area in West-central Bay of Bengal over the next two days.

A causative upper air cyclonic circulation has already been triggered over the central parts of Andaman Sea, an IMD update said on Sunday.

An existing ‘low' that has been prowling the Arabian Sea waters across the peninsula for over the past few days, bringing most of the area under a wet cover.

LIKELY INTERACTION

Model consensus predicts the possibility of the Bay system approaching the Chennai coast and setting up an interaction with a western disturbance featuring an associated trough dipping deep into Central India.

An upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over Northwest Rajasthan signalling the turn of events as ‘atmospherically engineered' from across the international border.

The interaction could bring a fresh wave of rains over the East Coast of India and adjoining peninsula during the course of the week, according to varied model forecasts.

This would also make for the first productive interaction post-southwest monsoon between an extra-tropical system (western disturbance) and a tropical one (emerging from the peninsular seas).

MONSOON ENDS

The southwest monsoon recorded 102 per cent rainfall during the four-month season ending September 30, which matched the lower end of the band that IMD's long-term projections had estimated.

In a significant turnaround from an El Nino-inspired drought year during the 2009 monsoon, the current year's season saw 31 Met subdivisions (13 during last year) recording excess rainfall.

Jharkhand (-41 per cent); Gangetic West Bengal (-31 per cent) East Uttar Pradesh (-23 per cent) and Bihar (-22 per cent) in East India and Assam and Meghalaya (-23 per cent) in North-east were the five subdivisions to record deficit rainfall during this year.

This compares significantly well with the 23 deficit Met subdivisions of the last year.

As it turned out, La Nina conditions (or El Nino in reverse) have proved the major differentiator during the current season.

Excess rains during the season have mostly fallen over peninsular India and Northwest India in what are two signature rainfall anomalies that a La Nina is known to leave over mainland India.

Meanwhile, an IMD update of weather over the last 24 hours ending on Sunday morning said that fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Kerala, South Tamil Nadu, South and Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

This has continued to hold the withdrawal line of southwest monsoon pinned to the northeast-to-southwest axis linking Raxaul, Patna, Sidhi, Bhopal, Ratlam, Ahmedabad and Porbandar.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-generating) clouds over parts of Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, South Tamil Nadu, East-central and South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and South and East-central Arabian Sea.

A heavy weather alert valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

It would be isolated heavy over Lakshadweep, Kerala, South Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Forecast valid until Friday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over South Peninsular, East and Northeast India.

An agri-met advisory put out by the IMD said that dry and sunny conditions in North-west are favourable for harvesting and post-harvesting operations of kharif crops.

Farmers have been are advised to undertake harvesting of rice and maize in Jammu and Kashmir; rice in Uttarkhand; bajra, jowar and maize in Rajasthan; and soyabean, maize, sorghum, sesame, green gram and black gram in Madhya Pradesh.

Flooding and water logging situation persists in some districts of Uttar Pradesh. Damage has been reported in standing crops like rice, soyabean, black gram, green gram, sesamum, jowar and bajra from some districts of the central plain zone, Bundelkhand and the western plain zones in Uttar Pradesh.