Friday, June 24, 2011
According to COLA model ... NO sign of Arabian sea monsoon strengthening before 30-Jun-2011
The present LOW over S-W UP has weakened and it'll remain there for another 24 hrs.
Some massive showers has recorded over E. rajasthan and N-W Madhyapradesh in past 2 days ... Baran - 29 cm and Guna - 34 cm
Chennai - as usual the temp will touch a max of 38 deg C before the sea breeze sets in.
Chennai - yesterday evening got around 1 cm of Rain... and more showers possible today evening as well.
An enduringly stubborn monsoon depression airborne for more than a week across central India weakened a notch on Thursday after forfeiting some of the moisture feed to two raging storms in faraway Pacific.
But not before triggering some heavy to very heavy rainfall over west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan and parts of the west coast, said an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Thursday.
In the process, it brought the monsoon current into more parts of Gujarat, remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, some more parts west Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan.
Having presently weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area, the system was located to over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan and southwest Uttar Pradesh by the evening.
The weakening seems to have been precipitated by flows diverted by two named storms respectively in northwest Pacific and South China Sea.
The well-marked ‘low' should undergo further weakening since Meari, the northwest Pacific storm and the stronger of the two, is tracking in a north-northeast direction.
The South China Sea storm, Haima, however, has been moving in west-northwest direction towards the subcontinent and is expected to send in a ‘pulse' into the Bay of Bengal.
Model forecasts suggest southwesterly flows strengthening towards the weekend after the storms blow over but there is no immediate forecast of a weather system forming.
In fact, a dry phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, an upper air wave travelling periodically from west to east across the Indian Ocean with some influence on ground weather during monsoon, may suppress rainfall for the time being.
The lean phase is expected to be broken by an alternating wet phase of the MJO likely emerging around July 10, model forecasts said.
Meanwhile, the IMD said the well-marked ‘low' is still capable of producing copious rain for another day or two, with heavy to very heavy rainfall being warned at isolated places over east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh.
Satellite imagery showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, North Gujarat, the Northeastern States and central and North Bay of Bengal and north Andaman Sea.
Isolated thunder squalls are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh on Friday.
Conditions are favourable for advance of monsoon into more parts of Arabian Sea and Gujarat, east Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh.