Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 12.. touched Oman and Moving North ... http://ow.ly/1TBxV

Update of "Phet" @7pm IST ... http://ow.ly/1TBvR

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 12.. touched Oman and Moving North

JTWC warning
--------------------------

031500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF OMAN (GOO). THE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD ALTHOUGH WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HAS INCREASED AS EVIDENCED BY THE ELONGATION. THE CYCLONE HAS
MAINTAINED A 20-NM RAGGED EYE, ENHANCING THE CURRENT POSITION FIX
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
DEMS. KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T6.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 03A IS NOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, A PRELUDE TO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHERLY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT APPROACHES OMAN. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A SKIRTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
OF OMAN AND WITH INCREASING VWS. PHET WILL THEN CROSS THE MOUTH OF
GOO EASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, THEN
DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE PACKAGE INCLUDING
NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, EGRR, AND WBAR CALLS FOR A SHARP NORTHWEST
DEFLECTION DURING THE FIRST 12-36 HOURS BEFORE THE RECURVATURE - A
POSSIBLE INDICATION THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN EARLY RECURVE.  RECENT STORM MOTION AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATION BOLSTER AN EARLY RECURVE SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. 

JTWC path
-------------------

IMD warning
-------------------------

ARB 02/2010/23                                                                                                                Dated: 03.06.2010

Time of issue: 1730 hours IST

Sub:   Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.

            The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northward and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, 3^rd June 2010 near latitude 19.5⁰N and long. 59.5⁰E, about 1050 km west-southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1000 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan), 350 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman) and 120 km south-southeast of Masirah island (Oman).

           

            Available observations and numerical weather prediction models guidance suggest that the system would move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction and cross Oman coast between latitude 20.5⁰N and 21.5⁰N by tomorrow the 4^th June forenoon. It would then weaken gradually, recurve northeastwards and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea by 5^th June and move towards Pakistan coast.

           

            Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
03-06-2010/1430	19.5/59.5	120-130 gusting to 140
03-06-2010/1730	19.5/59.5	120-130 gusting to 140
03-06-2010/2330	20.0/59.5	110-120 gusting to 130
04-06-2010/0530	20.5/59.0	110-120 gusting to 130
04-06-2010/1130	21.0/59.0	110-120 gusting  to 130
04-06-2010/2330	22.0/59.0	100-110 gusting to 120
05-06-2010/1130	23.0/59.5	90-100 gusting to 110
05-06-.2010/2330	24.0/61.5	80-90 gusting to 110
06-06-.2010/1130	24.5/63.5	70-80 gusting to 90

                                                                                                                                   

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.

Satellite shot at 7pm IST
------------------------------------

Update of "Phet" @7pm IST

Update of "Phet" @7pm IST:

The Cyclonic Storm's (CAT4),current location is 20.0N 59.4E within 100 Kms South East of Oman Coast. 
But certainly not gaining intensity, on the contrary getting weaker, very slightly. Last 2 postings on this blog shows "Phet" getting weaker slightly, and now heading North.Winds are at 105 Knots, with central pressure of about 944 Mb. The Wave height is 10 meters. But it still remains at CAT 4.
Cyclone PHET has changed track to a Northerly towards Oman from the earlier North Westwards direction. There could be initial landfall over OMAN  within 12 Hours due to Northerly track change.The track has changed due to the W.D. racing ahead of the cyclone. (See previous blog update for this).

Indian Coastline now seems to be safe and no longer in the track path of "Phet".

Meanwhile, the heat wave is still on. It now has spread to the east, with the eastern sector and central regions shooting up to the 45s and 46s. The Northern and western sectors, including Pakistan, which was bearing the brunt of 50+, is now between 43c-45c. (Due to the sporadic rains in this region from the prevailing W.D.) Map from IMD shows the shift.
Hottest in Asia: Basra(Iraq): 47c.
Hottest in India, Gaya: 45.5c
Hottest Night: New Delhi ,S,Jung: 34.7c

RT @purnimarao: I think the Delhi heat couldn't handle all the barbs on Twitter. It's gone rogue. rain (7:14pm)

Heavy rains hit Oman as cyclone Phet approaches (1 hr ago)... http://ow.ly/1TxM1

Cyclone "Phet".. Oman TV2 ... VIDEO ... http://ow.ly/1TxI8

5:30pm, Scattered thunder cells all over west coast along W. ghats, S-E Karnataka, Central Andhra, S. Kerala... http://ow.ly/i/1Tb1

5:30pm, Heavy thunder showers all over N-W Uttarpradesh, S. Haryana, E. Rajasthan, N. Madyapradesh... http://ow.ly/i/1Tb1

Rainfall data till 8:30am, 2-Jun... PDF... http://ow.ly/d/3QH

Northern limit of Monsoon as on 2-Jun-2010... http://ow.ly/i/1T5D

Rain map of 2-Jun:: shows showers over Gujarat, entire west coast, Kashmir and N-E states... http://ow.ly/i/1T5y

IMD :: Dust raising wind would prevail over east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi during next 2-3 days.

western disturbance lies over north Pakistan and neighbourhood as an upper air system.

Rain on 2-Jun, Jorhat & Cochin-7, Lengpui, Silchar, Kailashahar-5, Kottayam, Tezpur ,Cherrapunji-3, Dhubri, Gangtok, Passighat ,Mysore-2 CM

On 2-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 46.1°C was recorded at Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh) and Gaya (Bihar ).

Heat wave conditions are prevailing over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, north Madhya Pradesh & adjoining south Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar.

0000 UTC upper air and Current observation near PHET

41316 OOSA Salalah Observations at 00Z 03 Jun 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV
hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1000.0 20 29.8 26.2 81 22.00 190 6 302.9 368.7 306.9
930.0 663 24.8 23.9 95 20.54 0 0 304.2 365.7 307.9
925.0 711 24.4 23.7 96 20.43 0 0 304.2 365.5 307.9
912.0 836 23.4 23.4 100 20.35 340 1 304.5 365.5 308.1
902.0 933 23.8 22.6 93 19.58 325 1 305.8 364.9 309.4
893.0 1021 24.0 19.9 78 16.68 310 2 306.9 357.4 310.0
878.0 1170 28.2 14.2 42 11.73 287 3 312.8 349.3 315.0
877.0 1181 28.2 13.8 41 11.40 285 3 312.9 348.4 315.1
870.0 1252 28.6 10.6 33 9.30 300 5 314.0 343.3 315.8
850.0 1458 27.6 7.6 28 7.76 345 11 315.0 339.7 316.5
848.0 1479 27.4 7.4 28 7.67 345 12 315.1 339.5 316.6
781.0 2200 22.2 0.2 23 5.00 340 23 317.0 333.3 317.9
779.0 2222 22.0 0.0 23 4.95 340 23 317.0 333.1 317.9
708.0 3039 14.8 -6.2 23 3.40 0 30 317.9 329.2 318.5
700.0 3136 14.0 -7.0 23 3.25 0 30 318.0 328.8 318.6
668.0 3522 10.3 -8.8 25 2.97 355 35 318.1 328.1 318.7
646.0 3798 7.7 -10.0 27 2.78 350 30 318.1 327.5 318.7
606.0 4325 2.6 -12.4 32 2.45 355 22 318.2 326.5 318.6
603.0 4365 2.9 -18.8 18 1.44 355 21 319.0 324.0 319.2
598.0 4433 3.4 -29.6 7 0.55 1 19 320.3 322.4 320.4
585.0 4609 2.1 -32.0 6 0.45 15 14 320.8 322.5 320.9
550.0 5104 -1.7 -38.7 4 0.25 5 11 322.0 323.0 322.1
549.0 5118 -1.6 -39.2 4 0.23 5 11 322.2 323.2 322.3
538.0 5279 -1.1 -45.1 2 0.13 320 7 324.8 325.3 324.8
519.0 5564 -2.0 -48.7 1 0.09 240 1 327.1 327.4 327.1
513.0 5657 -2.3 -49.9 1 0.08 330 5 327.8 328.1 327.8
============================================================================= Observations for KARACHI, Pakistan (OPKC) : 03062010 / 0953 UTC
OPKC 030953Z 24017KT 8000 FEW020 FEW100 35/21 Q1008 TEMPO GUSTY WIND 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030925Z 24020KT 8000 FEW020 FEW100 35/21 Q1008 GUSTYING 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030900Z 24020KT 8000 SCT020 35/21 Q.1008 GUSTY WIND 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030830Z 24018KT 8000 SCT020 35/21 Q.1008 GUSTY WIND 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030800Z 24020KT 9000 SCT020 35/21 Q.1009 GUSTY WIND 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030730Z 24016KT 9000 SCT020 35/21 Q.1009 TEMPO GUSTY WIND 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030700Z 24016KT 9000 SCT020 35/21 Q.1009 GUSTY WIND 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030630Z 24019KT 9000 FEW020 SCT100 35/21 Q.1009 GUSTY 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030600Z 24012KT 8000 FEW020 SCT100 35/23 Q.1009 NOSIG
OPKC 030530Z 25014KT 8000 FEW020 FEW100 34/23 Q.1009 GUSTY 25KTS OR MORE
OPKC 030500Z 24011KT 8000 FEW020 FEW100 34/23 Q.1009 NOSIG
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Observations for SALALAH, Oman (OOSA)
Location: 17.03N 54.08E 22 meters
Observation time: 03 Jun 2010 09:50 UTC
Altimeter Setting : 1003.1 hPa
Station Pressure : 1000.4 hPa
Temperature :32 C
Dew Point : 26 C
Relative Humidity : 71 %
Wind Direction : 190 Degree [South]
Wind Speed : 7 mps
Visibility : 10.0 km
Clouds : Broken at 760 meters
[Courtesey :Wyoming weather web]

RT @sanalsandy: Thunder nd lightning too... :O :( cochin kerala monsoon (4:28pm)

Cycone Phet in Oman !!! ... http://ow.ly/1TtEV

Cyclone Phet Shows Signs of Weakening on Way to Oman ... http://ow.ly/1TtAO

Cycone Phet in Oman !!!

Heavy rainfall has started to fall over some parts of Al-Sharqiya region. Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET over west Arabian Sea has moved further towards North West direction. 

It’s centre is currently located near latitude 18.54 degrees North and longitude 59.4 degrees east. PHET is around 180 km away from Masirah Island. Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be around 180 km/h and by which it is classified as Category 3. 

PHET is expected to continue its movement into a Northwesterly direction towards A’Sharqiya and AlWasta coastal areas in the next 24 hours with 08 km/h associated with heavy thunder shower accompany with strong winds. Regions of, AlDhakhlia and AlBhatinah and Muscat Governate are expected to be affected by the convective cloud between Thursday afternoon until Saturday. 

People in the affected areas are to take precautions on the low lands from flowing Wadis because of the heavy rain and Fishermen are also advised to be precautious as seas are expected to be rough along the Sultanate’s coastal areas especially the coastal areas of the Arabian Sea as wave heights may reach up to 8 metres. 

Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) will continue watching the weather situation and give updates accordingly.


posted by Anonymous

3pm, Thunder storm over S.Tamilnadu.... http://ow.ly/i/1T3s

3pm, Thunder cells popping over West coast along western ghats from Maharastra to S. Kerala... http://ow.ly/i/1T3s

3pm, lots of thunder squalls seen over entire E. rajasthan... http://ow.ly/i/1T3s

3pm, showers over N-W & South Uttar pradesh, S-S-E Madhyapradesh, N.central Bengal, N-E Orissa ... http://ow.ly/i/1T3s

New delhi - Very dusty and windy for the past 1.5 hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/1T3s

RT @sarita_kashyap: delhi is rocking......awsome weather.....waiting for rain.........it's rain time.... (3:08pm)

RT @lpolgreen: Did a dust bomb go off in Delhi? Thank goodness rain is coming, with a balmy 90 degrees forecast on Monday! (3:07pm)

Cyclone "03 A - Phet"... Update # 11 ... Touched Oman and slightly moved N-N-W ... http://ow.ly/1TsYc

Cyclone "03 A - Phet"... Update # 11 ... Touched Oman and slightly moved N-N-W

JTWC warning
--------------------------

030900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH
OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS REGAINED A 20-NM RAGGED EYE THAT APPEARED TO WOBBLE AS THE TC
UNDERWENT A POSSIBLE EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND SUPPORTED BY A 030436Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM DEMS. KNES, AND PGTW RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T6.5. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03A IS APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO
THE NORTH, JUST SOUTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF
OMAN (GOO), IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
QUADRANTS AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHERLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT APPROACHES OMAN. THE WEAKENING WILL BE
ENHANCED AS TC 03A DRAGS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF OMAN AND WITH
INCREASING VWS. PHET WILL THEN CROSS THE MOUTH OF GOO EASTWARD AND
MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, THEN DISSIPATE INLAND
BY TAU 120. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EARLIER RECURVATURE IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH NOGAPS AND GFS TO THE LEFT OF THE
ENVELOPE AND ECMWF AND EGRR TO THE RIGHT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN
THE MIDDLE, JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 30 FEET.

JTWC projected path
-------------------------------

Satellite shot
------------------

Satellite shot at 3pm IST shows some part of Cyclone Phet is over Oman and signs of weakening.

Tracking the Monsoon ... http://ow.ly/1TqVe

RT @JenDelgadoCNN: Cyclone Phet will make landfall in Oman around 18:00GMT. Expect conditions to worsen. Heavy rain & strong winds all day

South West monsoon renewal ?? ... http://ow.ly/1TqSK

Cyclone PHET has enabled SWM winds to attain the maximum northern limit of monsoon... http://ow.ly/1TqRq

South West monsoon renewal ??

Latest satellite shot shows South Bay of Bengal is active again with heavy monsoon convective showers.
This is happening after 3 days of lull in that region.

Latest LOW level wind pattern analysis also shows the south Bay of Bengal and Srilanka will pickup renewed monsoon showers from Friday.

Moreover the S-W wind can also be seen upto Gujarat coast due to the Cylone "Phet" effect. This will provoke more Pre-monsoon showers along entire west coast today.

As soon as the Cyclone "Phet" weakens in another 3 days the monsoon showers along Kerala and Karnataka coast will pick up. It'll be weak till 10-Jun and then it'll pick up.

Mumbai - The pre monsoon thundershowers have started, but will remain weak and scattered till Sunday

Update on Cyclone "Phet" .. Moving in N-W direction, slowly and slightly weakened .. http://ow.ly/1TqFr

Chennai - Touched a max of 39.2°C (11:43am).. and now 12:50pm we have breeze from S-E and temp. is 35.7°C

RT @rajugana: RT @weatherofindia: Baroda; 9.40 AM. It is partly cloudy, no rain since yesterday evening.

Update on "Phet"

Update on "Phet":
This is one cyclone that keeps us guessing ! Latest surprises? Position as on 3rd.June 6.00 am and satellite image as on 3rd. June 11.0 am both IST.
1.It continues to track North-West even now, and moved on to 18.6N 59.4E.
2.It is 300 NM South of Muscat. 
3. It has weakened a bit. From 929 mb to 937 mb, and winds from 125 Knots to 115 knots.
4. And slowed its movement from 6 knots to 3 knots.
5. The cyclone is so "slow" and Lethargic", that the W.D. which was supposed to have steered it to the East, has already reached North India, and is precipitating rain over Kashmir and H.P. today !
Masirah reports winds of 20 Knts, and the cyclone is 115 NM away.
But, as mentioned, still maintaining a North-West track,will enter the North-East coast of Oman around evening of 3rd.June,and re-emerge in the Sea.
My doubt. Will it, after entering the Arabian Sea again, reach upto Gujarat coast ?? Or dissipitate before that??

Doubts and questions are constantly raised over the Monsoon behavior now, after "Phet". Let us understand, that a bit of re-organisation and re-grouping is now required in the Arabian Sea. "Phet" has messed up the flow !
Since "Phet" is now far and "out of reach" of the South Kerala coast, a bit of organised formation seems to have started. But, I feel, proper south-westerly cross flow will start once the influence of "Phet" is done with in the Arabian Sea. Say after Monday, 7th. June. 
And with the help and boosting of a MJO, which is estimated to show up in our region around the 10th. of June,we could see a fast picking up of the Monsoon current thence.

With all activity and action in the western side, the eastern branch, the east entire east coast will remain practically dry till the 10th. at least. No system popping up, the rains will be restricted to the North Eastern states this week.

Mumbai: The pre monsoon thundershowers have started, but will remain weak and scattered till Sunday.

RT @piyush_veere: Sun was so mercyless today..now at last some cool winds r soothing us here in patna. @weatherofindia (9:12pm, 2-Jun)

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" .. update # 10 ... within striking distance.. Oman ... http://ow.ly/1ToiD

Cyclone "03 A - Phet"... Update # 10 ... within striking distance. Oman

JTWC warning
--------------------------------

030300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH
OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM PGTW AT 5.5/6.5. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED, BUT REMAINS ON A
CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MASIRAH
INDICATE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH
THE SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 115 NM AWAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TC 03A, WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE SOUTH-
WEST MONSOONAL FLOW. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT
DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC
03A. THE DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE INTENSITY VALUES
TO REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WEAKENING WILL BE ENHANCED AS TC 03A MOVES OVER LAND, INCREASING DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE TRACK FOR PHET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTH-
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF PHET REMAINS IN PLACE. A TRANSITORY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR ALLOWING TC 03A TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. TC 03A WILL TRACK MORE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS TC 03A BEGINS TO HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS IT CROSSES OVER WATER
INTO PAKISTAN, BUT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 OVER LAND.
THE TRACK SPEEDS FOR TC 03A HAVE BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWER TRANSITION TO THE
MID-LATITUDES. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE MODEL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28
FEET.

JTWC projected path
------------------------------------

Satellite shot at 0300Z
------------------------------------

PHET-030610-0200 UTC

On this day 03.06.2010 / 0200 UTC PHET is located near 18.6 Degree North and 59.4 Degree East. V-Max= 115kt and central pressure is 937. [Courtesey : US NAVY] The SW monsoonal feeder is seen defelected from PHET. As such there is more possibility that it may enter OMEN coast and take recurvature inside land [as Laila did last time in Indian East coast] and reemerge to hit Pakistan or Indian coast.