Is La Niña re-emerging after a brief break?

The 2010-2011 La Niña was one of the strongest in recorded history. Though the La Niña was officially pronounced dead in April this year, this blog however had been predicting a multi-year La Niña with a short  intervening period of ENSO neutral conditions during the boreal (northern hemisphere) summer. This was the basis of a pattern thrown up by the analysis of historical data. 

There are preliminary indications that the 2010-2011 La Niña will be no different and most likely will taken on a multi-year character. The recent ENSO wrap up data of Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia for instance shows the Southern Oscillation Index (SoI) in clear La Niña territory at +9.9 after a very brief period in neutral territory.  (Note: Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event). Similarly, the Niño 3.4 value have turned negative at - 0.2 C, seem inching back to La Niña territory/ (Note: Sustained value above - 0.5 C may indicate a La Niña event).

Read More: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2011/08/is-la-nina-re-emerging-after-brief.html

Chennai - Almost 100 percent chance of T.shower after 5pm.. yesterday N.Chennai missed a strong T.shower. We'll keep it posted !!

Chennai - Temp. now 2:06pm is 33.8 C, Sky is clearing out... some Low cloud formation can be seen. Strong Wind from S-W.

Here's the latest V.Velocity map ... High along S-E peninsula coast ... http://ow.ly/i/fdUN

Heavy evening shower possible for entire S-E peninsula coast, N. Tamilnadu and Chennai till 4-Aug.. due to UAC and high V.velocity.

IMD and COLA models suggest Rains will dry up along S-W peninsula and most of the country from 7-Aug... a Break in Monsoon ??

Today a low level circulation can be seen along Orissa coast and it'll move N-N-W in another 24 hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/fdTY

Widespread heavy showers will continue over E.central and N-E states till 6-Aug.. ... http://ow.ly/i/fdTv

Heavy showers forecast for N.Kerala and coastal Karnataka for next 2 days... http://ow.ly/i/fdTv

Yesterday's UAC over W.central Bay is now along N.Andhra coast and it's expected to move West in 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/fdTb

RT @supersaps: Weather god could have fooled me, but it looks like Kerala's monsoon rains have been deficient this year: http://t.co/yASPnNB

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 9.40am, Dense dark clouds, and it is drizzling, appears heading for a rainy day.. http://t.co/HMbkIeG

Heavy rains expected in mumbai by 9 am...