Friday, September 25, 2009
We are at the last stages of South-west monsoon.
A new LOW pressure is taking shape now over west-central Bay and near North-coastal Andhra.
Latest satellite taken at 12pm, 25-Sep-09 shows huge cloud formation over that area.
And latest GFS models show, around 28 and 29th of september this formation will strengthen into a Depression and will cross into North-coastal Andhra.
Take a look...
During this time, the south-west coast will receive heavy last monsoon showers.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) is on the lookout has joined the watch for a low-pressure area building over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around Sunday (September 27).
Category-5 Super Typhoon Choi-Wan and Typhoon Koppu ravaging the west Pacific and the South China Sea over the past few days, could are thought to be initiating the fresh churn in the Bay of Bengal.
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), which had earlier last week indicated that the building Bay system could go on to intensify into as a depression, has since toned down the forecasts.
According to its latest outlook, the system may fail to rustle up the required strength due mainly to the fact that it would need to share some of its moisture fuel with a concurrently evolving weather system in the South China Sea.
This South China Sea would move westward over Indiao-China for yet another shy at the Bay of Bengal, latest ECMWF forecasts seem to suggest.
This could go on to set-up another `low', though weaker, in the Bay of Bengal around October 3.
But this would bear some watching, given the backdrop of the overall `drying' extending from the northwest, according to independent observers here.
An IMD update on Wednesday said that the ongoing thundershower activity over peninsular India could reduce in intensity ahead of the brewing 'low' on Sunday.
This would be a brief recess before rain activity picks-up along the east coast and over the peninsular and adjoining central India during early next week, the last of the season, the IMD said.
The monsoon is still about 20 per cent below the normal, and the late rains during the last week over peninsular India are not going to make any significant change to the projected overall deficit for the country as a whole. September-end could likely mark the worst drought it has faced after the benchmark 23.9 per cent deficit of 1972.
IMD forecast for the next few days said that the weather-creating north-south trough from east Uttar Pradesh to Karnataka coast ran through Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana and interior Karnataka.
The trough features an embedded cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh. The cyclonic circulation over south interior Karnataka and neighbourhood has shifted north-northwest to over east-central Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity, is likely along the west coast and over interior south peninsular India during next 24 hours, the IMD forecast said.
Fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls has also been forecast over the North Eastern States during the next two to three days before they taper-off.
Satellite pictures, on Wednesday, showed convective clouds over parts of north Bay of Bengal, north Andaman Sea, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and east-central Arabian Sea.
A warning valid for the next 24 hours said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka during the next 24 hours.
The Chennai Met Centre said, in an update, that the monsoon has been active over north interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and north interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and coastal Karnataka.
Forecast for the next 48 hours said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Kerala, Karnataka and at a few places over Lakshadweep.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh, the forecast said.