Saturday, December 12, 2009
Latest satellite shows that http://ping.fm/fVEjg ... Cyclone "Ward" is slowly losing its' Cyclone status. Still a heavy system.
IMD also suggesting the JTWC's predicted path... Now focus is on south TN coast .. http://is.gd/5l3nT
Cyclone "Ward" IMD: warning, 8:30pm IST
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone warning for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Orange Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further westwards and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 10.00 N and long. 83.50 E, about 450 km east-northeast of Jaffna (Sri Lanka), 400 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 450 km east-northeast of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around noon of tomorrow, the 13th December, 2009. It is then likely to emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around night of 13th December, 2009. However latest observations show sign of weakening of the system.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) is also likely over south coastal Tamilnadu during same period
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast which may become gale force wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph from tomorrow, 13th December, 2009 noon along and off south coastal Tamil Nadu. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is also likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 36 hours. Sea condition will be high along and off south Tamil Nadu coast and very rough to high along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts . Storm surge of about one metre above the astronomical tide is likely over Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Ramanathapuram districts.
Damage expected: Damage to thatched huts. Breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over coastal districts of south Tamil Nadu.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operations along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further westwards and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 10.00 N and long. 83.50 E, about 450 km east-northeast of Jaffna (Sri Lanka), 400 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 450 km east-northeast of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around noon of tomorrow, the 13th December, 2009. It is then likely to emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around night of 13th December, 2009. However latest observations show sign of weakening of the system.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) is also likely over south coastal Tamilnadu during same period
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast which may become gale force wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph from tomorrow, 13th December, 2009 noon along and off south coastal Tamil Nadu. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is also likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 36 hours. Sea condition will be high along and off south Tamil Nadu coast and very rough to high along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts . Storm surge of about one metre above the astronomical tide is likely over Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Ramanathapuram districts.
Damage expected: Damage to thatched huts. Breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines over coastal districts of south Tamil Nadu.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operations along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.
Latest on Cyclone "Ward" - "Intensifying again, TN coast has started rcving showers, JTWC's Rather unusal path" .. http://is.gd/5l2dg
Govt maintained site http://ncmrwf.gov.in site is still Down from morning of this important Cyclone "ward" day .
Cyclone "Ward" Update #5 .. "Intensifying again, TN coast has started rcving showers, JTWC's Rather unusal path" .. http://is.gd/5l2dg
Cyclone "Ward" -- Update - #5
JTWC: warning, 8:30pm IST
----------------------------
121500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120754Z AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE STR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL BETWEEN
TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET
JTWC: Predicted path, 8:30pm IST
-----------------------------------
Rather unusual path prediction
Satellite shot, taken at 9 pm IST
----------------------------------
As expected after 5pm, we are witnessing huge cloud formation in and around Cyclone "ward"'s core.
Coastal Tamilnadu has started receiving showers from 6pm IST.
JTWC - Predicts a south-west movement and hit north tip of Srilanka and then Hit Pamban.
Chennai also receiving steady and intermittent heavy showers from 6:45pm IST.
Cyclone "ward" is so far very slow and tough to predict. A complicated system so far and it'll be to it's very end.
----------------------------
121500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120754Z AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD
INTO THE STR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL BETWEEN
TAU 12 AND TAU 24 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET
JTWC: Predicted path, 8:30pm IST
-----------------------------------
Rather unusual path prediction
Satellite shot, taken at 9 pm IST
----------------------------------
As expected after 5pm, we are witnessing huge cloud formation in and around Cyclone "ward"'s core.
Coastal Tamilnadu has started receiving showers from 6pm IST.
JTWC - Predicts a south-west movement and hit north tip of Srilanka and then Hit Pamban.
Chennai also receiving steady and intermittent heavy showers from 6:45pm IST.
Cyclone "ward" is so far very slow and tough to predict. A complicated system so far and it'll be to it's very end.
Cyclone "Ward" almost losing everything ..5:30pm IST shot .. http://ping.fm/jWE0C ... still some Huge thunder cells can be seen in core
http://ping.fm/Mk9Ed .. Cyclone "Ward" may pickup steam after 6 pm... this was the trend of its formation all thru last week.
Satellite 3:30pm, shows .. a stationary Cyclone "Ward" with more signs of weakening .. http://ping.fm/v0Lnm
Cyclone "Ward" -- Update #4
JTWC: Warning:: 2:30pm IST
------------------------------------
120900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 120344Z METOPA IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 45 TO 55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
WARD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE
THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD INTO THE STR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET
JTWC: predicted path:: 2:30pm IST
----------------------------------------
IMD:: Warning: 2:30pm IST
----------------------------------
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
Latest observations show sign of weakening of the system.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 evening onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from tomorrow, 13th December, 2009 afternoon. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Satellite shot at 2:30pm IST
-------------------------------------
------------------------------------
120900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 120344Z METOPA IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 45 TO 55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
WARD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE
THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD INTO THE STR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 36 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET
JTWC: predicted path:: 2:30pm IST
----------------------------------------
IMD:: Warning: 2:30pm IST
----------------------------------
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
Latest observations show sign of weakening of the system.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 evening onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from tomorrow, 13th December, 2009 afternoon. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Satellite shot at 2:30pm IST
-------------------------------------
Cyclone "ward" update #3 .. http://is.gd/5kCk4 .. Keep following www.indianweatherman.com OR Follow our Tweets.
Cyclone "Ward" -- Update #3
IMD: warning, 11:30AM IST
--------------------------
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from tomorrow, 13th December, 2009 afternoon. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Visible satellite shot of Cyclone "Ward", taken at 12 pm IST
-------------------------------------------------------------
surface Rain map:
-------------------
--------------------------
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from tomorrow, 13th December, 2009 afternoon. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Visible satellite shot of Cyclone "Ward", taken at 12 pm IST
-------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
11 am IST, Visible shot of Cyclone "ward" .. http://yfrog.com/4io2gj .. shows sign of north-west movement and Heavy cloud formation over NW
Cyclone "Ward" .. FULL Report #2, 9:30 AM .. "IMD: suggests a North ward movement than North-West" ... http://is.gd/5ku31
>> Cyclone "Ward" .. FULL Report #1, 9:30 AM .. "IMD: suggests a North ward movement than North-West" ... http://is.gd/5ku31
Cyclone "Ward" -- #2
IMD:: Warning, 8:30AM IST
----------------------------
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal further moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 Kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 Kmph gusting to 95 Kmph. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Satellite visible shot at 9:30 AM IST
--------------------------------------
----------------------------
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal further moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 Kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 Kmph gusting to 95 Kmph. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Satellite visible shot at 9:30 AM IST
--------------------------------------
Satellite shot at 9Am, IST shows "heavy showers" nearing shores of central & North TN coast.. http://yfrog.com/3nekjj
Satellite shot at 9Am, IST shows "heavy showers" nearing shores of central & North TN coast.. http://yfrog.com/3nekjj
>> Cyclone "Ward" .. FULL Report #1, 7 AM .. http://is.gd/5koEY ... chennai cyclone tamilnadu... Updated every 30 min.
>> Cyclone "Ward" .. FULL Report #1, 7 AM .. http://is.gd/5koEY ... chennai cyclone tamilnadu... Updated every 30 min.
Cyclone "Ward" .. #1
Latest visible satellite shot 7:30AM IST
EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TC 05B
ARE DEEPENING FROM THE SOUTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS SEEN A CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE
MOST RECENT ITERATION OCCURRING IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE LLCC HAS
BEEN CHALLENGING TO IDENTIFY, MAKING THE TRACK SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, AND BASED ON THE
MOST RECENT ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSING TC 05B TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS HAS THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE STILL OVER TC 05B PROVIDING AN
AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THE
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THIS SUPPORT IS LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED AS
THE WESTERLIES LIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TC 05B MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE REDUC-
TION IN OUTFLOW TO THE MID-LATITUDES WILL KEEP INTENSIFICATION TO
A MINIMUM BEFORE TC 05B TRACKS INTO COASTAL INDIA, CAUSING THE DISSI-
PATION OF WARD AROUND TAU 48.
IMD - warning, 5:30 am IST
------------------------------------------
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 9.50 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 600 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 Kmph gusting to 95 Kmph. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
JTWC - predicted path, 5:30 AM IST
-------------------------------------
JTWC - Warning, 5:30 am IST
---------------------------------------------
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TC 05B
ARE DEEPENING FROM THE SOUTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS SEEN A CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE
MOST RECENT ITERATION OCCURRING IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE LLCC HAS
BEEN CHALLENGING TO IDENTIFY, MAKING THE TRACK SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, AND BASED ON THE
MOST RECENT ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSING TC 05B TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS HAS THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE STILL OVER TC 05B PROVIDING AN
AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTING THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THE
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THIS SUPPORT IS LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED AS
THE WESTERLIES LIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TC 05B MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE REDUC-
TION IN OUTFLOW TO THE MID-LATITUDES WILL KEEP INTENSIFICATION TO
A MINIMUM BEFORE TC 05B TRACKS INTO COASTAL INDIA, CAUSING THE DISSI-
PATION OF WARD AROUND TAU 48.
IMD - warning, 5:30 am IST
------------------------------------------
Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 9.50 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 600 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from today, the 12th December 2009 afternoon and becoming gale force wind speed reaching 75-85 Kmph gusting to 95 Kmph. Sea condition will be high to very high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
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