Just minutes ago, comes the news that Cyclone Giri made a landfall in Mynamar threatening to unleash flooding and landslides. The satellite photo shows Giri making a landfall, near Kyaukphyu, a large island in western Myanmar.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Breaking News: Cyclone Giri strikes Western Myanmar, Typhoon Megi ravages Taiwan on the way to China
5pm, Heavy thunder showers over Orissa, N-N-W Andhra, W.Maharastra & S.central Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/4N70
5:30pm, Cyclone "Giri" showing less signs of weakening.. Eye still distinct and Half of its cloud mass is inland... http://ow.ly/i/4N6O
2:30pm, Cyclone "Giri" .. Eye is very close to Land... rapidly making landfall & crossing into Myanmar.. http://ow.ly/i/4MQP
1:30pm, Cyclone "Giri" is a very Severe Cyclone now .. 18.9N & 93.0E.. Winds : 230kmph, pressure: 929mb.. http://ow.ly/i/4MOe
RT @dtncommonwealth: DTN Delhi 2010: Rain threatens Goa ODI; stadium officials optimistic!: Even after spells of rain.. http://bit.ly/aPhNUs
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL & North East monsoon.. status
Wednesday's well-marked low-pressure area over East-central Bay of Bengal intensified to become Tropical Cyclone Giri on Thursday evening.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that the storm might intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm before crossing North Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coast by Friday evening.
JTWC AGREES
The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre tended to agree with this outlook, saying that wind speeds may already have touched 45 to 55 knots (83 to 102 km/hr).
The rapid intensification of the system is attributed to the influence of high sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear (cross-winds that lop off storm heads) and reasonably good ventilation at the top helping it to ‘breathe out.'
As expected, a prevailing western disturbance impacting ocean basins across the geography is what will cause the system to track to the northeast until landfall over Myanmar.
The same western disturbance has started affecting Typhoon Megi in the South China Sea basin, forcing it to abandon a westward track and instead head to the north and northeast, apart from weakening by notches.
BUSIER PACIFIC
The storm is not seen as intensifying anymore, but the JTWC expected it to maintain typhoon strength until landfall over Southern China by Saturday morning.
The direct threat to Hong Kong seem to have been warded off, with the storm taking a more northeasterly track aiming to hit the South China coast northwest of Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the JTWC has put out fresh cyclone notification alerts for the West Pacific under the influence of a strong wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. The MJO wave travels in the higher levels of the atmosphere and has periodic dry and wet phases with implications for ground weather.
The ‘pull' effect of Cyclone Giri would bring another round of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL
This would effectively cause the southwest monsoon withdrawal pinned down to where it stays currently and delay the onset of the northeast monsoon over the Southeast Coast of India
The 24 hours ending on Thursday morning saw fairly widespread rainfall being reported from West Madhya Pradesh.
It was scattered over East Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, North Madhya Maharashtra while being isolated over Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, South Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Meanwhile, the prevailing western disturbance will trigger fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh and scattered over Uttarakhand during the next two days.
IMD has indicated scattered rain or thundershowers for the Northeastern States on Friday and increase thereafter under the twin influence of Cyclone Giri and the western disturbance.
A separate heavy weather warning valid for Friday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura thereafter.
Extended forecast valid until Tuesday said that scattered rainfall would occur over South Peninsular India in what is thought to be a count-down to onset of northeast monsoon.
12pm, As Cyclone "Giri" moving in N-E direction.. entire Karnataka coast, Goa and N. Kerala are getting Heavy rain.. http://ow.ly/i/4MHJ
1.Severe Cyclonic Storm "Giri" has tracked NE and is about to cross the land at Myanmar coast.The "away from the Indian coast" tracking is due to the W.D. heading eastwards, and was forecasted by Vagaries in the initial stage itself. With core pressure at 959 mb,and winds at 85 knots, it is likely to be harsh and fierce in Myanmar.
2.The mentioned W.D. is now active and precipitating rain in Kashmir and H.P, and overcast conditions in Punjab. Srinagar is 10c and raining at mid day on Friday. Expect snow in the higher ranges.The max. day temperature yesterday was 24c, and it has been at 25c average for the last week there. Amritsar is 20c at mid day today. Highs have been in the 30s last week. A cooling down, long overdue, will herald a seasonal change not only in the North, but also will be beneficial for the setting in of the NEM, one more +ve factor in addition to the yesterday's discussion on NEM.
3.The trough "dropping down" along the west coast, discussed in Vagaries in
the last 2 articles, has almost formed an off shore trough, something similar to the seasonal off shore trough, and falls up to Karnataka coast ! An off shore trough along the west coast on 22nd. October !! Somewhat uncommon ! Shows effective rains along the west coast south of Goa. As a reader mentions of heavy monsoon rains from Udipi. More on this in evening report.
Cyclone "04B" - "Giri" ... update
Very latest location ... 18.5N and 92.6E
Pressure ... 959mb
Wind speed ... 160 kmph
This Cyclone "Giri" was not predicted by most weather models around the world to become such a severe Cyclone. And that too in very short time span.
IMD
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JTWC
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JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
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Now "Giri" has an EYE to it.
Pressure ... 959mb
Wind speed ... 160 kmph
This Cyclone "Giri" was not predicted by most weather models around the world to become such a severe Cyclone. And that too in very short time span.
IMD
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Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal.
The severe cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and moved northeastwards, lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 22nd October 2010 over the northeast Bay of Bengal near lat. 19.00N and long.93.00E, about 150 km south of Sittwe(Myanmar) and 110 km west-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), 240 km south-southeast of Teknaf (Bangladesh) and 650 km southeast of Digha (West Bengal, India).
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast between Sittwe (Myanmar) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) by today, the 22nd October 2010 evening/night.
Since the system is likely to move towards north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts, it is not expected to affect east coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. will be informed accordingly.
JTWC
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 212330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF T=5.0 FROM PGTW AT 212330Z AND T=4.0 FROM KNES AT 212030Z. TC 04B HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND JUST AFTER TAU 12, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15 FEET.
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot
-------------------
Now "Giri" has an EYE to it.
'GIRI" watch
POSITION NEAR 18.5N 92.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 211533Z TRMM PASS AND A 211730Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF T=4.0 FROM PGTW AT 211730Z AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04B HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND BY TAU 24, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET.
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