Gujarat, Konkan-Mumbai, and Rajasthan may not be rained out just yet even as the South interior peninsula appears to have entered a phase of relative calm.
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University saw the possibility of West and Northwest India being lashed by occasionally heavy to very heavy rains during the six days ending Friday.
‘EXTREMELY HEAVY'
The IRI has forecast ‘extremely heavy rains' for Gujarat, Mumbai, West Madhya Pradesh and the adjoining Southeast Pakistan across the border during this period.
The causative ‘rain-head' would sit smack over the border straddling Southeast Pakistan, adjoining extreme Northwest Gujarat and Southwest Rajasthan.
‘Very heavy rains' have been forecast for the rest of Rajasthan and the adjoining Northeast Pakistan; the Konkan coast; Madhya Maharashtra; Marathwada; parts of Vidarbha; East Madhya Pradesh; Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
‘Wetter than usual' conditions are likely to play out over entire Gujarat, Southwest Rajasthan and the Mumbai-Konkan coast, the IRI said based on initial conditions obtaining on Sunday.
PILOT SYSTEMS
The atmospheric systems now driving the rains over Central and Northwest India are a low-pressure area perched over North Madhya Pradesh, having shifted overnight from North Chhattisgarh, and an upper air cyclonic circulation persisting over Gujarat.
The ‘low' is embedded into the larger trough of low pressure extending across Central India, which has been instrumental in having brought the entire region under a wet cover.
And, a rare but conclusive evidence of monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal, having filled East India and flowing onward into the plains over Northwest India, was on sight at a time when the season is inching closer to half-way post.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has hinted at the possibility of another ‘low,' though comparatively weak, taking shape over Northwest Bay of Bengal over the next two days.
FLOWS TO WEAKEN
This was a possibility the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had forecast as early as last week and retained in the latest forecasts made available on Monday.
But the ECMWF sees the system location of its birth further to the Southwest, along the Andhra Pradesh coast. It may trundle across the peninsula for sometime before becoming insignificant by the end of the month.
According to ECMWF, this would also signal a brief weakening of the monsoon flows as well.
Meanwhile, an IMD update said that the 24 hours that ended on Monday morning saw widespread rains unfold over Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Karnataka.
They were fairly widespread over Rajasthan, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States, North Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
Satellite pictures on Monday showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of East Jammu and Kashmir; Himachal Pradesh; Uttarkhand; East Rajasthan; Gujarat; West Maharashtra; Madhya Pradesh; the North-eastern States; Karnataka; East and Southwest Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea.
A warning valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over Konkan, Goa and Gujarat.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over West Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka and Rajasthan during this period.
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Jammu division, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand.
An IMD outlook suggested the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over Gujarat and Konkan and Goa during the next two days before relenting.
Widespread rain or thundershowers is likely over West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka on Tuesday but may scale down in intensity thereafter.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Western Himalayas and North-East India while it would be scattered over East India and remaining parts of the plains of North-West, Central and Peninsular India.
Extended forecast until Saturday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Northeast India, along West Coast and over parts of North-West India.
