Here are the factors that are supporting GFS prediction of LOW over SW Bay..
— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) November 23, 2017
1. Sea surface temperature is Good.
2. Cyclone formation potential is high over South Bay.
3. At present low-level convergence is good.
4. Present upper-level divergence is also good.#iwm http://pic.twitter.com/m6HX30nmxd
Even the latest GFS is unrelenting in forecasting a LOW to form over SW Bay near ESE Srilanka and move West into Gulf Mannar then touch S-tip Tamilnadu on Monday.
— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) November 23, 2017
ECMWF model continues to deny that. So we've to wait till Friday midnight to get it right. #iwm
chart 90hrs from now http://pic.twitter.com/Mh6bb9ezNo
Bay - Update postponed to 4pm, due to wide margin of difference between GFS and ECMWF.
— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) November 23, 2017
That too for next 3 days ! #iwm
Present easterlies is expected to drop a LOW over South Bay near to SE,ESE Srilanka on Saturday, 25-Nov.
— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) November 23, 2017
GFS expects this LOW to travel west, then cross Srilanka and then touch S-tip of Tamilnadu on 26/27th.
Tamilnadu coast to get active with showers from evening of 25th. #iwm http://pic.twitter.com/JkiMKI2YAj
This dry air over Tamilnadu will keep most of South Peninsula with "NO rain and Winter like conditions" till Friday late-evening. #iwm
— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) November 23, 2017
Meanwhile, the easterlies will drift closer to land and a Low expected over S Bay ! http://pic.twitter.com/0IiEDwgGxM
An easterlies s slowly pushing West towards Tamilnadu coast.
— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) November 23, 2017
Check the image for the boundary of Easterlies, seen upto S-central, central Bay.
Dry air from N,NW India is wedging into Tamilnadu thru N Bay, which is propelled by an low-level Anti-cyclone over Maharastra ! #iwm http://pic.twitter.com/BytJCFOMRB