Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Monsoon Rains for s-coastal Karnataka are expected to reach by 5-Jun.
A couple of International Forecasting Models estimate a low pressure to form in the Arabian Sea, around 10N and 60E by the 1st of June. There are few other models which do not agree and show NO low formation in the region around that time frame.
With 2 diverse opinions by several International Models, it becomes confusing for the average reader to actually judge or estimate the fact, especially at a critical time when the SWM is advancing along the West Coast of India.
Citing the "patch" of higher SST in the Central regions of the Arabian Sea (around 55-60E), it is possible that a low pressure system can form in the region by the 1st/2nd June.
But, as it travels North, it can encounter a slightly colder sea, thus limiting its growth. The low, initially could be at 1000 mb, can deepen to 996 mb by the 4th of June, before it starts weakening again from the 5th.
By rajesh - May 29, 2012
@shanthikod >> No Early monsoon for N.Kerala, It's expected to reach on 1/2-Jun.. but before that heavy moisture presence is Normal
RT @shanthikod: Daily little shower taking place here in north kerala coastal región with excessive himidity. does it suggests early montón?
@ajy_s >> Neyveli (Tamilnadu) will have around 40 deg C !
If the Arabian sea circulation pops up on 30-May or 1-Jun then only a weak monsoon current will reach Kerala coast on 1-Jun.
On 28-May, highest maximum temperature of 46.5°C has been recorded at Chandrapur, Nagpur and Wardha (Andhra Pradesh)