Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Monsoon Rains for s-coastal Karnataka are expected to reach by 5-Jun.
NOGAPS still predicts that monsoon current will reach Kerala by 1-Jun and sees NO circulation over W-central Arabian sea http://ow.ly/i/ESuF
NOGAPS model suggests that Monsoon showers will pick up strength only after 4-Jun over Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/ESs7
chennai - presently 5pm, the wind is from South and NO sea breeze yet!
chennai - records 39.0°C at 1:10pm .. bit cooler than yesterday !!
Stiff W,N-W winds from morning till 2pm will continue for another 3 days over Andhra, N.Tamilnadu, chennai , E.Maharastra.
Today as well a low level circulation persists over Chatisgarh, Orissa and E.Maharastra, and another over E.UP & Bihar. http://ow.ly/i/ER25
Upcoming W-central Arabian sea LOW >> "few other models which do not agree and show NO low formation" .. http://ow.ly/bcY79
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Migratory storks’ early arrival raises monsoon hopes

A couple of International Forecasting Models estimate a low pressure to form in the Arabian Sea, around 10N and 60E by the 1st of June. There are few other models which do not agree and show NO low formation in the region around that time frame.

With 2 diverse opinions by several International Models, it becomes confusing for the average reader to actually judge or estimate the fact, especially at a critical time when the SWM is advancing along the West Coast of India.

Vagaries' View: 
Citing the "patch" of higher SST in the Central regions of the Arabian Sea (around 55-60E), it is possible that a low pressure system can form in the region by the 1st/2nd June. 
But, as it travels North, it can encounter a slightly colder sea, thus limiting its growth. The low, initially could be at 1000 mb, can deepen to 996 mb by the 4th of June, before it starts weakening again from the 5th.
RT @goodallrebecca: It's so unbelievably hot, stepping out of the hotel today was like stepping into an oven!! Amritsar Punjab (12:20pm)
@shanthikod >> No Early monsoon for N.Kerala, It's expected to reach on 1/2-Jun.. but before that heavy moisture presence is Normal
RT @shanthikod: Daily little shower taking place here in north kerala coastal región with excessive himidity. does it suggests early montón?
In next 24hrs, isolated Heavy T.showers possible for N-central,central Tamilnadu and over N.Kerala W.Ghats.. http://ow.ly/i/EQLG
Bangalore - records a mild 27.0°C at 11:30am.. WoW
RT @kaustavsongman: When India is sweating it out,people in Bangalore seem to have turned their ACs outside...tremendous weather (11:43am)
@ajy_s >> Neyveli (Tamilnadu) will have around 40 deg C !
COLA predicts a weak monsoon will set in over Kerala coast on 1-Jun and expected to pick up after 4-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/EQKo
If the Arabian sea circulation pops up on 30-May or 1-Jun then only a weak monsoon current will reach Kerala coast on 1-Jun.
COLA models still suggest a strong circulation over W-central Arabian sea on 1-June and will move N-N-E .. http://ow.ly/i/EQJE
Till 8:30am today, chennai 's high temp. was 42.9 deg C and Low temp. was 30.3 deg C
On 28-May, highest maximum temperature of 46.5°C has been recorded at Chandrapur, Nagpur and Wardha (Andhra Pradesh)
Here's the latest cloud formations seen over the circulation over N.Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/EQIW
N.Bay has popped a fresh Circulation ... http://ow.ly/i/EQIl >> this will pull the Monsoon well upto North Bay.
Chennai - records 32 deg C at 12:40am .#wow
Chennai - records 32 deg C at 12:40am .#wow