Thursday, April 30, 2009

India’s Heat Wave May Abate in Two Days, Weather Bureau Says

original from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=az9hF1q4RQtA&refer=india

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- A heat wave in northern and western India may spread to more regions before abating by the weekend, the country's weather office said.

Temperatures in New Delhi climbed to 43.5 degrees Celsius (110.3 Fahrenheit) yesterday, the highest in 50 years and five degrees Celsius more than normal, the India Meteorological Department said on its Web site.

The heat wave has killed at least 67 people, with 9 deaths being reported in the eastern Orissa state, the Press Trust of India said. Temperatures reached 47.1 degrees Celsius in Nagpur in the western state of Maharashtra yesterday, the agency said.

The hot weather conditions may spread to parts of Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh in two days, the weather bureau said.

India's monsoon rains, forecast to be near normal this year, may arrive a week earlier than the normal June 1 date, the bureau said earlier this week. The nation's central region may receive more rainfall than last year, while showers in the southern parts of the country will be same as last year, it said.

Kanpur -- Hottest day in the last 8 years

Original from http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Kanpur/Hottest-day-in-the-last-8-years/articleshow/4464809.cms

KANPUR: Breaking the record of the last eight years, Wednesday proved to be the hottest day in the month of April. With the maximum temperature of the day climbing to 43.8 degrees

celsius, April 29 also was recorded as the hottest day of the season so far. It seems Kanpurites are in for some terribly hot weather in coming days.

The mercury and election fever were both at their peak on Wednesday. The Met officials have predicted that the temperature is likely to stay at the same mark for the next couple of days.

On Wednesday, the maximum temperature was at an all time high of 43.8 degrees celsius, four degrees above normal. The minimum was recorded at 23 degrees celsius. According to the meteorological department, warm and dry westerly winds have caused the temperature to rise. The winds are essentially dry. Humidity on Wednesday ranged between 45 per cent and 19 per cent. The coming few days will be hot and dry," said weather scientist, Dr Anirudh Dubey.

Notably, the maximum temperature last year in April had gone up to 42.2 degrees celsius on the same day. This year, the mark has been reached several times already, the highest being 43.8 degrees celsius on April 29. According to data available with the Met department, the average maximum temperature in April is 39.9 degrees celsius. The maximum for the month of April was 44.1 degrees celsius in 2001.

Owing to the blazing sun, the streets remained deserted all through the day, despite Wednesday being the eve of the biggest democratic event. The candidates and their supporters were seen braving the scorching heat to give final touches to their preparations for the D-Day.

However, apprehensive about the heat likely to turn a spoilsport on the polling day, Dr Anirudh appealed to the denizens to not make the hot weather an excuse for abstaining from voting. "One must take preventive measures before stepping out in the sun, but must definitely go to polling booths to exercise their right. After all, we are empowered to speak our mind through vote and thus shouldn't let the chance to prove ourselves as responsible citizens of the country go waste," added Dr Anirudh

Hot Core Shifts to India

Original from Jim's blog, www.accuweather.com

Thanks to high pressure set right over the middle of India, the nation was the site of earth's hottest weather of the day. Of the sites for which I have data, I have the two Maharashtra cities, Nagpur (47.1 degrees C) and Akola (47.0), `neck and neck` as the top two hot spots (near 117 degrees F, by the way).

Elsewhere, highs above 45 degrees C/113 degrees F were set from Rajasthan and Haryana east to Jharkhand and Orissa. If our data are right, the high of 43.5 degrees C at Delhi was higher than the hottest of 2008 (43.0).

In Pakistan, meanwhile, it cooled--if the 46 degrees at Nawabshah can be said to be `cooler`. Cooling was substantial, though, at Karachi, as if to say that the building of the strong ridge aloft had ended. The high was a relatively normal 34.5 degrees, down much from the abnormal 42.2 degrees of Wednesday. As I had said earlier in the week, I believe that Karachi gets its hottest weather when upper ridges build, but when the building ends, cooling off the sea increases.

--Looking forward, the heat will be severe over the Subcontinent as a whole through the day on Sunday. Thereafter, weakening of the high aloft will coincide with weak cooling. So, from Sindh and southern Punjab east as far as western West Bengal, India, I look for widespread 42-46 degree heat inland. Sea breezes, I believe, will keep Mumbai and Karachi moderate.

"Swine Influenza" or "Swine flu" or "swine fever" - facts

Original from www.cdc.gov

Please download this FULL "Swine Flu" Guide

Antiviral Drugs

Antiviral drugs are prescription medicines (pills, liquid or an inhaler) with activity against influenza viruses, including swine influenza viruses. Antiviral drugs can be used to treat swine flu or to prevent infection with swine flu viruses. These medications must be prescribed by a health care professional. Influenza antiviral drugs only work against influenza viruses -- they will not help treat or prevent symptoms caused by infection from other viruses that can cause symptoms similar to the flu.

There are four influenza antiviral drugs approved for use in the United States (oseltamivir, zanamivir, amantadine and rimantadine). The swine influenza A (H1N1) viruses that have been detected in humans in the United States and Mexico are resistant to amantadine and rimantadine so these drugs will not work against these swine influenza viruses. Laboratory testing on these swine influenza A (H1N1) viruses so far indicate that they are susceptible (sensitive) to oseltamivir and zanamivir.

Benefits of Antiviral Drugs

Treatment: If you get sick, antiviral drugs can make your illness milder and make you feel better faster. They may also prevent serious influenza complications. Influenza antiviral drugs work best when started soon after illness onset (within two 2 days), but treatment with antiviral drugs should still be considered after 48 hours of symptom onset, particularly for hospitalized patients or people at high risk for influenza-related complications.

Prevention: Influenza antiviral drugs also can be used to prevent influenza when they are given to a person who is not ill, but who has been or may be near a person with swine influenza. When used to prevent the flu, antiviral drugs are about 70% to 90% effective. When used for prevention, the number of days that they should be used will vary depending on a person's particular situation.

CDC Recommendation

CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir or zanamivir for the treatment and/or prevention of infection with swine influenza viruses.

  • Oseltamivir (brand name Tamiflu ®) is approved to both treat and prevent influenza A and B virus infection in people one year of age and older.
  • Zanamivir (brand name Relenza ®) is approved to treat influenza A and B virus infection in people 7 years and older and to prevent influenza A and B virus infection in people 5 years and older.

Recommendations for using antiviral drugs for treatment or prevention of swine influenza will change as we learn more about this new virus.

Clinicians should consider treating any person with confirmed or suspected swine influenza with an antiviral drug. Visit: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/recommendations.htm for specific recommendations.

30-Apr-09, Thunder storms

All of today's thunderstorms were peppered around central and southern western ghats... all are Pre-monsoon showers.

Some weak South-west air current is already over south-western parts of Indian Peninsula.. this is creating thunder showers in late afternoon over western Ghats.

invi1330.jpg

31-Mar-09 --- Orissa Tornado

Tornadoes in India is uncommon. And only area previously hit was around northern Orissa and along with west-bengal border.

Here's the FULL news report, images and a FULL report from IMD

.

20 feared killed in Orissa tornado (original from http://www.hindu.com/2009/04/01/stories/2009040159730900.htm)

Special Correspondent

BHUBANESWAR: At least 20 people were feared killed when a tornado hit about 11 villages under Rajkanika Block of Kendrapara district of Orissa on Tuesday.

Official sources, however, confirmed eight deaths and said the toll was likely to increase when rescue teams entered the affected villages.

According to initial reports, the tragedy took place around 4.40 p.m. when the tornado caught the villagers unawares. Hundreds of houses were damaged in the villages that were spread over a five kilometre radius. Such was the intensity of the tornado that people were lifted to a height of 25 to 30 ft.

According to Kendrapara District Sub-Collector Ranjan Kumar Das, personnel of Orissa Disaster Rapid Action Force were on their way to the affected villages for rescue and relief operation.

Rescue work was hampered because of darkness and roadblocks caused by hundreds of uprooted trees.

Download FULL report published by www.imd.gov.in

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Mercury touches 42.2 deg C; hotter days ahead

NEW DELHI: Much before schools break for summer holidays and families plan vacations to cooler climes, the capital is already scorching under
extreme heat. The maximum temperature on Tuesday climbed to the season's highest of 42.2 degrees celsius, four degrees above normal, with hot winds sweeping through the city keeping most people indoors.

There seems to be no respite in sight. The weatherman predicts even hotter days ahead, with the mercury expected to touch 43 degrees in the next two days, thanks to dry westerly winds coming in from Rajasthan. And this is just the beginning of what threatens to be a long hot summer.

Tuesday was the warmest April 28 in the past five years, both in terms of the maximum and minimum temperatures. The minimum temperature was 26.6 degrees Celsius, three degrees above normal. ``A western disturbance is passing over Jammu and Kashmir and its warm front is leading to warming in this area. Westerlies blowing from Rajasthan are also causing the temperature to rise. Within a day or so, Delhi can also expect the hot loo,'' said a Met department official.

Normally crowded places like India Gate and Central Park were deserted for most part of the day as people preferred to remain indoors. ``I knew this could be the hottest day of the season the minute I stepped out. I felt totally parched and dehydrated. The sun was relentless and a hot dusty wind blowing in the afternoon just made the situation worse,'' said Anita Vohra, an architect.

Said Vinod Datta, a professional working in CP: ``I had to meet a client in Gurgaon but the heat was so terrible that I called in sick. There was no way I was going to drive all the way in this weather.''

Year...............Maximum........Minimum
2004:...............37..................26
2005:...............37..................21
2006:...............42..................25
2007:...............41..................23
2008:...............40..................22
2009................42.2................26.6

Temperature forecast for INDIA till 15-May-09

The temperature forecast predicts that the next 10 days we'll feel some abnormal temperatures and gradually it'll go down due to a possibility of early set in of SOuth-west air current... not the SOuth-west monsoon itself.

India’s Monsoon May Make Early Onset, Aiding Planting Prospects

Original from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=awmgXqMEF_qQ&refer=india

By Pratik Parija and Vipin Nair

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- India's monsoon, forecast to be near normal this year, may arrive a week earlier than the normal June 1 date, boosting prospects for an early planting of crops such as rice, oilseeds and cotton.

The weather office doesn't foresee a delay in the onset of the June-to-September rainy season, D. Sivananda Pai, a director at India Meteorological Department, said today on a conference call organized by brokerage Edelweiss Securities Ltd.

India's 235 million farmers rely on the timing of the four- month season to decide which crops to grow. Their incomes are watched by makers of consumer goods and appliances. Companies such as ITC Ltd., India's biggest cigarette maker, and textile company DCM Ltd. are selling more in the villages than in urban areas, the Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry has said.

"A proper monsoon does improve market sentiment and help rural demand," said H.S. Goindi, head of marketing at TVS Motor Co., India's third-biggest motorcycle maker. "It is extremely important." Small towns and rural areas account for as much as 55 percent of the company's sales, he said.

Rains this season may be 96 percent of the 50-year average, the weather office said April 17. The central region may receive more showers than last year, while falls in the southern parts of the country may be the same as last year, Pai said. Areas in the north east and north west may get less rain than last year.

Adequate rainfall will help sustain the record 4.3 percent average growth in farm output Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has presided over since 2005, raising incomes among the 742 million Indians who live in the countryside. That may help the Congress party-led government, seeking re-election in polls that started on April 16, to counter the slowest growth since March 2003.

India, the world's second-biggest grower of rice and wheat, depends on the monsoon to water its farms as about 60 percent of the arable land isn't irrigated. Planting of most early winter- harvested crops, including rice, corn, lentils, soybeans, peanut and sugar cane, begins with the onset of the monsoon.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at pparija@bloomberg.net; Vipin Nair in Mumbai at vnair12@bloomberg.net

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

IPL09: 28-Apr-09: Pretoria

Today's match:

vs

At Pretoria (a new venue), 8 PM India time.

Weather: Clear skies and 0% chance of rain.

Other areas in South-Africa is getting heavy rainfall.. take a look

map.JPG

No worries for today's match.... sit back and Enjoy!

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Today's (25-Apr-09) Thunder storms

Thunder Showers on 25-Apr-09, over south-east Andhra. Today's huge thunder cell was more near to Chennai. Isolate thunder cells can be seen over south western ghats

IPL09: 25-Apr-09: Durban and Capetown

Latest satellite pic.

Today's matches and weather forecast.

vs in Durban at 4 pm India time.

Partly cloudy with showers and thunder- showers - 30% chance of Rain

vs in Cape Town at 8 pm India time.

cloudy with light rain - 30% chance of rain.

Both the forecasts are not good for matches..

Going by latest weather RADAR from Durban suggests.

Some mild drizzle bearing clouds around... nothing to worry for this match.

Keep your fingers crossed for the next match in Cape Town.

we'll update on this later.

Updated at 9:54 pm India time

Thunder storms of 24-Apr-09 (video)

Thunder cells on 24-Apr-09.
Can be seen over south-central Andhra, North-Western Tamilnadu and all along South western Ghats.
We'll update the RAINfall amounts after 24 hrs.
If anyone in that area can update us, then we'll be very thankful.
Mail it to "freedownloadshop@gmail.com"
or visit www.indiaweather.co.cc

Friday, April 24, 2009

IPL09: 24-Apr-09: Durban

Today's match at Durban, 8 PM india time.

vs

Here's the latest satellite pic

Forecast says...

partly cloudy with 0% chance of rain.

So it's going to be good news for "Punjab Kings"

Thursday, April 23, 2009

IPL09: Durban and CapeTown

We'll start with latest satellite pic, it shows CLEAR for Durban and Bit cloudy for Cape Town.

1st match: Durban: 4pm India time

Chennai SUper Kings vs Delhi Daredevils

Clear skies and 0% chance of rain.

2nd match: Cape Town: 8pm India time

Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals

Cloudy at times with showers and thunder- showers and 60% chance of rain.

WE hope that Durban match will go ahead un-dettered, while Cape Town match will not

So keep tracking this LIVE weather RADAR pic from Cape Town for keeping updated.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

IPL09: 22-Apr-09: Royal Challengers vs Deccan Chargers, Cape Town

Today's match: Royal Challengers vs Deccan Chargers, Cape Town

vs

Here is the latest satellite pic

It seems another rain disturbed match on hands.

Now (7:22 pm) lot's of light rain around and possibility of more to come.

Forecast:

Rain forecast says 0 % rain... if this happens then good for IPL.

Partly cloudy

Here is the weather RADAR pic from Cape Town

(Radar shows mild drizzles at 7:15 pm India Time)

Cape Town

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Pre monsoon Thunder showers over southern India (video)

Lot's of Huge thunder cells formed over SOuth-west Orissa, North-east Andhra and North-central Tamilnadu and a huge one over Southern end of Western Ghats. These thunder cells formed over western ghats are common this time of year, may be called as pre-monsoon showers.

Forecast for IPL: 21-Apr-09 : Durban

4pm Indian time

Punjab kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders

8pm Indian time

Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians

Weather forecast:

Cloudy with Rain

Temperature: 21 deg max

Rain: 60% chance

Latest rain forecast map

and here the weather RADAR

Going by RADAR pic, now(2 pm India) we can see lots of rain activity around Durban

Durban Radar

Monday, April 20, 2009

Forecast for IPL: 20-Apr-09 : Chennai v Bangalore, Port Elizabeth

vs

IPL weather forecast for Chennai v Bangalore

20-Apr, Port Elizabeth

Forecast: Cloudy with showers; Temp max: 17°c; Rain: 60% chance.

Here is the latest Satellite pic.

And follow the LIVE weather RADAR from Port Elizabeth below...(update every 5 min)

RADAR

Long Range Forecast For 2009 South-west Monsoon Season Rainfall - IMD

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Long Range Forecast

For 2009 South-west Monsoon Season Rainfall

1. Background

India Meteorological Department (IMD) follows a two-stage forecast strategy for long range forecasting of the south-west monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole. The first long range forecast for the south-west monsoon season (June-September) rainfall is issued in April and the forecast update is issued in June.

During the last two years (2007 & 2008), IMD has been using the following statistical models for forecasting the south-west monsoon rainfall (June - September) for the country as a whole:

a) A 5- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to March, for the first forecast in April.

b) A 6- parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system requiring data up to May for the forecast update in June. Three of these 6-parameters are same as that used for April forecast.

The operational forecast issued by IMD for the 2008 seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole was accurate as the first and second stage forecasts were 99% and 100% of Long Period Average (LPA) respectively and the actual rainfall was 98% of LPA.

For preparing the first stage forecast for the 2009 South-west monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole presented here, the same 5-parameter statistical ensemble forecasting system as that used for 2008 has been used.

2. Operational Statistical Forecast System

In the IMD's Ensemble Statistical Forecasting system for April forecast, the following 5 predictors are used. The model error of the April forecasting systems is ±5%.

S.No

Predictor

Period

1

North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature

December + January

2

Equatorial South Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature

February + March

3

East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure

February + March

4

NW Europe Land Surface Air Temperature

January

5

Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume

February + March

3. Experimental Forecasts

As a part of ongoing efforts to improve the long range forecast capabilities, experimental forecast for the 2009 south-west monsoon rainfall based on IMD's dynamical forecast system was also generated. For this purpose, observed sea surface temperature data of March have been used.

In addition, IMD has taken into account the experimental forecasts prepared by the national institutes like Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad, National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL), Bangalore, Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS), Bangalore and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida and operational/experimental forecasts prepared by international institutes like the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, Meteorological Office, UK, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK , the Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC), USA, and World Meteorological Organization (WMO)'s Lead Centre for Long Range Forecasting - Multi-Model Ensemble (LRFMME).

4. La Nina Conditions over the equatorial Pacific

Following the 2007/08 La NiƱa event, near neutral ENSO conditions had prevailed in the tropical Pacific from early June to November 2008. However, La Nina conditions returned in early December 2008. From early March, 2009 the SSTs over central and eastern Pacific have weakened and as on now, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing. The latest forecasts from both dynamical and statistical models indicate equal probabilities for weak La Nina and ENSO neutral conditions till May 2009. For the subsequent monsoon season (June to September), majority of the models predict ENSO neutral conditions. It may be mentioned that as the lead time of the forecast increases there is considerable spread and uncertainty in the ENSO forecasts.

5. Forecast for the 2009 South-west monsoon rainfall

IMD's long range forecast for the 2009 south-west monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be Near Normal.

Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%. The Long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm.

IMD will update the above forecast in June 2009 as a part of the second stage forecasts. Separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

The Deadly Cyclones of Bangladesh



Map of northern Bay of Bengal coastline
showing Bangladesh and surrounding nations.



Images from: Significant Severe Cyclones Striking Bangladesh




Tropical Cyclone October 2000 (Courtesy NOAA)




Composite of Cyclone Tracks Crossing
the Bay of Bengal (1970 to 2005)
Source: Wikimedia Commons




Cyclones Tracking Over Bangladesh During the Twentieth Century
Source: Banglapedia



The 1970 Bhola Cyclone




Track for Bhola Cyclone, November 1970
Source: Wikimedia Commons




Image of the Bhola cyclone taken on 11November 1970.
Courtesy US NOAA



The 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone

Color coding of storm strength based upon Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

TD TS 1 2 3 4 5

Track of 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, April 1991
Source: Wikimedia Commons




1991 Bangladesh cyclone near peak intensity on April 29 at 0623 UTC.
Courtesy US NOAA / Satellite and Information Service




Flooded villages and fields around a river in Bangladesh
the day after the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone
Courtesy US Air Force Defense Visual Information Center
Photo by Staff Sergeant Val Gempis



Cyclone Sidr



Color coding of storm strength based upon Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

TD TS 1 2 3 4 5

Track of Cyclone Sidr, November 2007
Source: Wikimedia Commons




Tropical Cyclone Sidr (06B) in the Bay of Bengal, as seen by the MODIS
instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite on November 14 at 0445 UTC.
Courtesy of MODIS Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC




Map showing affected districts of Bangladesh due to Cyclone Sidr, November 2007.
Courtesy Humanitarian Information Unit, US Department of State




Coastal Damage due to Cyclone Sidr.
Courtesy U.S. Navy, photo taken by
Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Christopher Lange