Friday, August 06, 2010

RT @earthquake: M 5.6, Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia: Friday, August 6, 2010 08:58:37 UTC at epicenterDepth: 42....
On 5-Aug, Showers for Orissa & Chatisgarh ...

Flooding in Pakistan

Though many areas in northwest Pakistan were bracing for heavy rain and additional flash flooding on August 4, 2010, the city of Kheshgi, in northwest Pakistan, had clear skies. This image, taken by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA’s Terra satellite reveals a city awash in flood water.
Thick with mud, the Kabul River is pale green in this false color image. Clearer water is dark blue. The river flows through its usual channel, but in places, water seeps over the channel and across the landscape. The buildings and roads of Kheshgi are silver. Spots of turquoise blue—shallow, muddy water or water-logged ground—covers several sections of the city.
On the south side of the Kabul River, water flows down the hills, washing over neighborhoods. The bare ground in the hills is brown and tan. Plant-covered land, red in this image, is divided into long, narrow rectangles, pointing to agriculture. Geometric shapes under the water near the river are probably submerged fields of crops. Thousands of acres of crops had been lost in floods throughout Pakistan, said the United Nations.
Kheshgi is in the Nowshera district in the Khyber Pakhutnkhwa province. As of August 2, Khyber Pakhutnkhwa was the hardest hit province in Pakistan, said the United Nations, and Nowshera was the most impacted district in the province. Nowshera reported 500,000 people displaced with 161 dead, said the Government of Khuber Pakhtunkhwa.
The floods affected communities throughout Pakistan. More than 1,100 people had died, 15,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, and at least one million people were in need of emergency assistance throughout Pakistan, said the United Nations on August 2. The floods occurred as unusually heavy monsoon rains fell over Pakistan.
Entire India will be under subdued rainfall from 10-Aug to 13-Aug
Heavy showers forecast for Mumbai and Coastal, central Maharastra on 8-Aug, Sunday ...
Heavy widespread showers for E and Central Maharastra will continue for another 24 hrs.
Yesterday's "90B" is over Orissa today...
1:30pm, Heavy showers over Punjab, central & E. Maharastra ...
1:30pm, Scattered Heavy showers again over Entire Pakistan...
Pakistan :: 'Not just a monsoon crisis, but a food crisis' ...
RT @Geojit: Food inflation seen easing on good monsoon - RBI deputy gov
Will La Niña’s year long cooling make any difference to “Global Warming’s” Long Term Trend? ..
RT @cosmonet_news: 【BBC video】 'Not a monsoon crisis, a food crisis': BBC's Lyse Doucet warns that with the flood w..
RT @JenDelgadoCNN: India cloudbursts causes flash flooding in Jammu & Kashmir, India. Reportedly 14 people were killed many injured.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda.9.50am, cloudy sky with drizzling.. looks heading for yet another wet weekend!!!
With the low, of 1000 mb, currently over Orissa, good rainfall was recorded in Chattisgarh. Rainfall ranging from 246 mms in Narayanpur, 201 mms in Kanker, 121 mms in Bijapur and 74 mms in Dhamtari were amonst the high rains in the state. Good distribution of rains ranging between 50-90 mms were recorded from adjoining Orissa and east M.P. That means, the rainfall radar is in the south-west quadrant of the low. Many a times, we have to see in which quadrant of the low the rain clouds are concentrated.
Today, we see the satellite image showing good clouding over South Chattisgarh and adjoining Vidharbh. No inflow from the Arabian Sea has yet started towards the low.Maybe as it is not too deep and is at 1000 mb.

As the low has crossed, should see a day of rains in Jharkhand and Bihar (deficit areas).

But as the low moves west, this region will see a decrease in rains.
But,we will see rains increasing in Vidharbh, North Maharashtra and Southern M.P. from Friday as the low zips westwards. Marathwada and Northern Maharashtra can expect cumulative rainfall of around 40-70 mms next 2 days.
Rain in battered Gujarat will be less than their previous experiance.
Southern peninsula ?? Status Quo !

We have discussed, not to expect too much from this low. Seems to be holding on to our presumptions.

The system may not sustain, as it subsequently moves into Rajasthan region, and by Sunday should fizzle out. See estimated track forecast & SST by ECMWF. Gujarat, may see a commencement of rains from Saturday, along with konkan coast.

Mumbai, had
a respite from rains last few days. The day was warmish on Thursday, with the high at 31.5c in the city and 32c in the suburbs. I think its after nearly 50 days that Colaba had 0 mms of rain on Thursday, 5th. August :) "Vagaries" had forecast no hindrances with upto 10 mms of rain and day at 31c. As the winds from the west will start towards the low, I think Mumbai should get rains, heavy showers sparsed in between, from Saturday. Maybe upto 40 mms on that day, but intensity of rains surely decreasing from Sunday evening (25-30 mms on Sunday), as I do not see much in this current system.

We hear of flooding and widespread rains in Leh district. Well, personally, I have really not followed this up, and an upper air W.D. which was anyway heading towards the Himalayas could have interacted with the local terrain.
From IMD's bulletin yesterday - "The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood persists. System is likely to move east-northeastwards". As we know, local conditions in Leh region are very unpredictable, and can be forecast only if one is present there to actually observe the rapid changes in weather there.

The seasonal all India defcit has now reduced from -4% to -2%. As we have discussed in previous write ups, the "red" region of central India is now "green". A "red" area now remains in the eastern U.P/Bihar/Jharkhand regions, which we expect to get rains today, but may not be enough.