The latest on AS-4 as on Saturday, 26th night:

System has moved W/NW in the last 6 hrs from this blog report, and is now positioned at 8.7N and 74.9E. Actual position is 200 kms SW of Cochin.With core pressure at 996 mb the eastern segment of the system is showing winds at 35-40 knts (max). Strengthening is due to increase in vertical wind shear to 25 knts (positive).

There is active precipitation around the centre and to the West of the system centre. As predicted yesterday, Kerala and the Lakshdweep Islands had heavy rainfall on Saturday (today). Thiruvananthpuram and Agathi received 40 mms each. Minicoy had 34 mms.

Meanwhile in 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, Venkatgir (Nellore Dist) in T.N. had a very heavy downpour of 230 mms, and Uthiramerur (Kanchipuram dt) received 200 mms. In T.N,hill station Kodai recieved 112 mms with the day's high at 14c on Friday.Rainfall in T.N will decrease from Sunday.

Due to favourable SST at 31c, and possible increase in wind shear, system will deepen a bit more till Monday, when surface winds would reach a max of up to 50 knts, and as mentioned, will start to weaken from Tuesday and fizzle out in a couple of days.Further track will be NW as shown in Vagaries map.

I expect some light rain on the coastal regions of South Gujarat and Konkan on Monday due to the spiralling of the clouds from the system, during its peak period (Monday). After that the clouding should decrease as AS-4 weakens.

chennai - will have more showers after 2am and towards morning !

"05A" - still a depression and moved N-W slowly ... http://ow.ly/7FKwV

Next easterly wave and a LOW pressure over S. Bay expected around 5-Dec !!!

Heavy rain for N.coastal Tamilnadu, chennai till morning of Tuesday, 29-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/m9iz

RT @ramprakash4790: Everywhere in chennai its d same situation RT @ranganaathan Its raining heavily in Nungmbakkam. Worse than y'day

Heavy rain forecast for Kanyakumari district, Tamilnadu on 27,28-Nov.

"05A" will intensify further and move N-W into Arabian sea .. http://ow.ly/i/m9hf

"05A" - still a depression and moved N-W slowly

Position :: 8.7 N and 74.9 E
Pressure :: 

JTWC warning
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261500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
SYSTEM STRUGGLING AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NEW CONVECTION IS CONSISTENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM CORE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES 
THE NEW CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND A 261119Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WELL-
ORGANIZED AND THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LATEST 
AMSUB RADIAL CROSS SECTION ALSO VERIFIES THE PRESENCE OF A WARM MID-
LEVEL ANOMALY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE TC 05A IS 
BRINGING ITS MOISTURE PACKAGE ALONG AND SATURATING THE ENVIRONMENT 
AHEAD OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS WEIGHTED 
TOWARDS A 260410Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT 
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A LIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS 
UNDERNEATH A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS 
INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
DESPITE THE SHEAR, THERE IS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. TC 05A IS BEING DRIVEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A LOW- 
TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA AND IS 
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE STEADILY OVER THE THREE DAYS, UNTIL IT IS 
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT ANTICYCLONE AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS 
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A REGION OF 
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05A WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR 
TO CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS, NEAR TAU 96 AND 20 DEGREES NORTH 
LATITUDE. ONCE TC 05A ROUNDS THE RIDGE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL 
INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG 
TRACK ARE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 31 DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT REGARDING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA WITH 
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH 
LATITUDE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING THAT 
TC 05A WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KNOTS, AND WILL REACH 
PEAK INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. 

IMD warning 1:30pm
-----------------------------------------

The depression over Comorin area and neighbourhood moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 26^th November 2011 over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadeep area near latitude 8.0⁰N and longitude 75.5.⁰E, about 150 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 300 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadeep Island), 500 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands during next 48 hrs.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during the same period.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during next 48 hours.

Latest Satellite IR shot
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JTWC projected path
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IMD GFS projected path
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"98B" - is now a Cyclone "05A" over S-E Arabian sea and moving N-W away from Kerala ... http://ow.ly/7Fx5L

Heavy rains again forecast for S. tip Tamilnadu, central, N-coastal Tamilnadu for Today and Sunday (27-Nov)

chennai - more intermittent sharp showers forecast all thru the day, for Sunday and Monday as well !

chennai - having a break now 9:42am after sharp showers lashed the city from early hours.

"98B" - is now a Cyclone "05A" over S-E Arabian sea

Position :: 8.2 N and 76 E
Wind :: up to 60 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
---------------------------------

260300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
6 HOURS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVE FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 252127Z 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND VALIDATED BY A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 05B IS 
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE, WITH 
EXCELLENT RADIAL DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES 
ARE HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS).  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE 
RECURVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE LATER TAUS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. THIS FORECAST 
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, 
NAVMARFCSTCEN 250751Z NOV 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTIO21 PGTW 250800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 
11 FEET. 

JTWC projected path 
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Latest satellite IR shot
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Meanwhile North East monsoon will be Very active along entire Tamilnadu coast. Heavy rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu coast for another 2 days.

"98B" is now a Cyclone over S-E corner Arabian sea, just west of Trivandrum .. now it's named as "05A". It'll continue to move N-W

RT @arivukkarasu: @weatherofindia Its 4.04 AM and raining in Coimbatore !