Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Weak Monsoon hits Mumbai.

Mumbai rain

IMD monsoon status::
The southwest monsoon has further advanced into entire central Arabian sea, some parts of north Arabian sea, south Gujarat state, remaining parts of north Konkan and some more parts of Madhya Maharahtra. The northern limit of monsoon passes through Lat. 23.0°N / Long. 60.0°E and Lat. 23.0°N / Long. 65.0°E, Bhuj, Baroda, Nasik, Sholapur, Hyderabad, Kalingapatnam, Paradip, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.

Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over remaining parts of Gujarat state during next 48 hours.

Meanwhile a weak current of monsoon is over Mumbai.
Following news piece taken from
Mumbai city and suburbs received intermittent rains throughout the day on Tuesday. The Weather Bureau said Colaba recorded 6.8mm of rainfall and Santacruz 5.1 mm. Normal life was not affected due to the rains.

Rainfall likely to be 93% of normal, says government

Original from::

It's official now. The government's forecast says India will have a below average monsoon overall.

On the whole, the forecast is for seven percent below average rainfall, with a margin of error between plus and minus four percent, which means theoretically between eleven percent to four percent below average rain.

The Met department has downgraded the forecast for the Monsoon from "near normal" to "below normal".

So, the prediction is for 93% of long term average rainfall.

But the big worry is that northwestern India, which is the granary of the country, is forecast to get only 81% of the average rainfall.

But predictions and models aside, the Monsoon is known to catch up and cover shorfalls. There is a strong hope for a revival of the monsoon as there are rain bearing clouds over both the Arabian Sea & the Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has stepped in and asked the Cabinet Secretary to convene a meeting of a Committee of Secretaries to monitor the situation on a daily basis.

The rains, which should have covered most parts of the country by now, have stopped their movement ahead. The worry is that sixty per cent of the crops are rain fed and the government is drawing up contingency plans to counter the situation.

The north and central parts of the country are already sizzling under a heat wave and a drought will derail the newly-elected government's food security promises.

Heat wave prevails

The weathermen have warned of severe conditions over most parts of the country. Temperatures are well above 40 degrees.

Uttar Pradesh has been consistently recording temperatures above 40 degrees. So is Bihar, where water scarcity is adding to the heat trauma.

Jharkhand is reeling at 44 degrees. Temperatures are about 5 degrees above normal in Orissa. Chhatisgarh is scorching at 44 and in MP too water woes are adding to the crisis. Vidarbha is above 40 degrees for the past 7 days and so is Rajasthan.

There is no respite in Delhi and the noon temperatures can rise up to 46 degrees.

Depression "93A" makes landfall..

Take a look at latest sat pic of depression "93A" making landfall over Southern Gujarat.

Along it comes weak South-west monsoon to Gujarat.
It seems monsoon has by-passed Mumbai...!!!

Latest IMD report::
The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved further northwestwards and crossed the coast near Diu of south Gujarat coast between 1830 to 2030 hrs IST of today, the 23rd June 2009. The system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 24 hrs. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gujarat region during the same period. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is also likely over north Konkan during next 24 hrs.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely along and off Gujarat coast during next 12 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

Poor monsoon so far (Chart)

WMO monsoon projection

IMD has been predicting a normal monsoon during the June-September season since March.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) seems to have taken a cautious stand over the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) projection of a ‘poor monsoon’ due to a probable ‘El Nino’ impact. The IMD did not agree with WMO’s projections, saying, “El Nino and the progress of monsoon are not mutually exclusive events”, and remained non-committal over its earlier projection of a “normal monsoon” for the June-September 2009 season.

“We will consider the possibility of the “El Nino” impact on the progress of monsoon in India and then announce a final projection on June 25 in New Delhi. Till then, we would not like to comment on the ‘El Nino factor’ discussed by the WMO,” A B Mazumdar, deputy director general, IMD, Pune, told Business Standard.

Interestingly, top scientists and researchers from the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) expressed concerns over the development of “El Nino” in the Pacific Ocean region. “If El Nino impact is built in the central portion of the Pacific Ocean, then there is every chance of the same having an adverse impact on the progress of monsoon in India,” scientists maintained.

The IMD has been predicting a normal monsoon during the June-September season since March. However, the south-western winds did not progress across the country even after hitting Kerala at the right time on May 23. The WMO has predicted a “greater than average” chance of an “El Nino” known globally for droughts and adverse weather conditions, building over the Pacific Ocean.

The report suggests that India had experienced a severe drought during the year 2004 when a similar ‘El Nino’ condition was observed. The delayed monsoon has already caused a shortfall of rains by 45 per cent in June. The WMO report has expressed concerns over the progress of monsoon in the wake of a probable ‘El Nino’ formation.

This development is very significant as the “delayed monsoon” brings along a big risk to the Indian economy because of its adverse impact on the summer crops (kharif). The sowing for the kharif season happens during the months of July and August and this is the period when India receives almost 65 per cent of its annual rain fall. This rainfall is more crucial since more than 60 per cent of kharif cultivation is directly dependent on the monsoon.

This comes as a complete contrast to the IMD projections of a normal rainfall during the season. Mazumdar further stated, “El Nino impact is developed far away from India and hence, it does not necessarily affect Indian rains. While the year 2004 (when El Nino had developed) saw a severe drought across India, we must remember the year 1997, when the country received heavy rains even with an intense El Nino situation. Hence, we would not like to associate with the WMO report as of now.” When asked, if the IMD expects a curtailed monsoon during the June-September period, Mazumdar avoided comment.

IITM scientist Krishna Kumar told Business Standard, “The progress of the monsoon has been severely hit. If El Nino impact is built within the Pacific Ocean, then there are chances of the monsoon progress being hit further. Although, there is not a direct relation between these two things, a possibility of an adverse impact cannot be ruled out.” Kumar added, “Indian monsoon is hit only when the El Nino is built in the central region of the Pacific Ocean. There have been El Nino instances in the Eastern region, which did not hit the monsoon. Hence, we must observe the development of El Nino and only then, we can predict its impact.”

Another researcher from IITM pointed out at the chances of further subtraction of the monsoon over next two weeks. “We have observed moderate indications of an El Nino development. And therefore, we have so far had a poor progress. This can be associated with the developing El Nino. Still, we cannot draw any conclusions at this point of time,” the researcher said.

Weak winds signal poor rains

The IMD’s national weather forecasting centre in Pune on Tuesday said the progress of south-western winds had been hit by the dry winds flowing from the northern region towards the south. Cloud formation was, thus, below expectations. This has also weakened the winds flowing in from the west coast. If the situation continued, poor rainfall would be observed for another month, the IMD said.

Original from::

Delhiites feel the heat as mercury touches 44 degree C

Mercury level touched the 44-degree Celsius mark, five degrees about normal here on Tuesday.

The usual hustle-bustle of traffic and people on Delhi roads was missing on Tuesday with most of the local people preferring to stay indoors.

Major landmarks, like India Gate, which attracts hundreds of tourists every day, saw a miniscule arrival of visitors today.

“The temperature is high in New Delhi. I came to Delhi on a holiday but it is really hot here… Ii is hard even to step out in such weather,” said Rajendra Verma, a tourist.

People, who were compelled to move out of their houses, could be seen running for shelter under trees or carrying umbrellas to avoid the sunrays.

Local residents opined that it would be unwise for anyone to move out without taking necessary precautions against the sweltering heat.

“I want to say that please take protection during summers…drink lemon water and try to avoid stepping out in the sun,” said Monika, a local resident.

Meanwhile, Indian Meteorological Department has warned that this situation would continue for the next four-five days.

“We are not expecting any respite from this heat wave condition over north-west India because such type of weather will continue for another four days, so temperature will around 44 and 45 over northwest India will prevail for another four or five days,” said B. S. Yadav, an official of the Indian Meteorological Department.

He added that southwest monsoon might cover western India by first week of July