Remnant of Typhoon Melor, Bay and NEM's last stand !

ECMWF and GFS are expecting the remnant of Melor to survive and pop a LOW over SE Bay on 23-Dec .. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWaexZAWUAAI1us.jpg

But, NAVGEM model suggests only a new easterly wave to push into SE Bay on 23-Dec !! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi93U.jpg

Can Bay sustain a LOW / Depression at this time of year ?

Latest sea surface temp shows above 28 C from S-central to SE Bay below 14N.
Latest SST of Bay also shows COLD waters near Tamilnadu coast.

A LOW can sustain over SE Bay as of now .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi9jm.jpg

For a clear picture about Bay and NE monsoon's last stand for Tamilnadu coast, we've to wait till 22/23-Dec !

Easterlies for S,SE Tamilnadu. T showers ahead!

A weak easterlies is affecting E,SE Srilanka and its winds have reached Tamilnadu coast as well, but Dry.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi5Vl.jpg
11:50am, IR shows heavy convective activity due to easterlies along E-coast Srilanka, SSW Bay ... http://ow.ly/W0GSF 

In next 36hrs, Easterlies is expected to affect S,SE,Central Tamilnadu below 11th or 10th parallel ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi6ba.jpg
Easterlies will be weak with less moisture at low-levels & almost NO moisture in upper-levels above 10N upto Chennai ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi6kt.jpg

Rainfall forecast for next 36hrs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From Morning to noon of Friday..
Scattered showers possible along Karaikal to Rameswaram.
From Friday noon to morning of 19-Dec...
Heavy / moderate T showers for S-tip,S,SE,S-central Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi6NF.jpg
One or two HEAVY T showers possible for Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Kanyakumari district on Friday evening, midnight ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi6X0.jpg

Chennai & Pondicherry - on 18,19-Dec, it'll be cloudy, warm day and slightly warm night.
Drizzle possible from Early morning to 2pm.

Scattered T showers possible again over W-ghats, central, S Kerala on Friday and Saturday.

T showers ahead for Chatisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and S Bengal

Today, upper,mid-level WD trough is seen along N,NW India dipping to 25N.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi4zR.jpg ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi4BH.jpg

WD's low-level circulation is seen over N-central India, it's trough is creating a wind confluence over Chatisgarh.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi4M4.jpg

11:50am, This wind confluence is already creating rain activity over Chatisgarh, adjoining E Madhyapradesh .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi4RB.jpg
As the upper-level WD trough is expected to move East and fizzle out in next 36hrs, the same will happen to this wind confluence as well.

On today and before noon/evening of Friday..
Scattered Heavy T showers for Chatisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, S Bengal .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi5fA.jpg
#Kolkata - Moderate / Heavy T showers expected today late-evening / midnight and another shower before evening of Friday.