ECMWF and GFS are expecting the remnant of Melor to survive and pop a LOW over SE Bay on 23-Dec .. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWaexZAWUAAI1us.jpg
But, NAVGEM model suggests only a new easterly wave to push into SE Bay on 23-Dec !! ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi93U.jpg
Can Bay sustain a LOW / Depression at this time of year ?
Latest sea surface temp shows above 28 C from S-central to SE Bay below 14N.
Latest SST of Bay also shows COLD waters near Tamilnadu coast.
A LOW can sustain over SE Bay as of now .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/fi9jm.jpg
For a clear picture about Bay and NE monsoon's last stand for Tamilnadu coast, we've to wait till 22/23-Dec !