13/1430 UTC LAT = 8.8N LONG = 81.4E CATEGORY = T1.5/2.0
Latest bulletin from US Navy
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 84.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 82.4E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
130348Z ASCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PERIPHERAL WINDS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL
TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
Take a look at the latest Satellite pic.
Chennai was totally cloudy thru the day.
From evening onwards there was sprinkling of rain, it's continuing now(10:33 PM) also.
The rain rate will increase from early morning.
The above forecast is only IF the present system is sustained and moves east.
According to me the present "92B" depression might break off before tomorrow evening, that too over SEA itself.
