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180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 85.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A 172338Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARING WESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS THE 171600Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING 35-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RE-CURVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS, EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15-20 KNOT RATE, THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SST/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
JTWC projected path
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Satellite shot at 8:30am IST
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