The LOPAR and the Cloud mass in BoB

 

To day [28 Oct 2012 / 1500 hrs GMT] the cloud mass over the  LOPAR or WML is spread over Northern parts of Srilanka to Rameswaram. Located roughly 225km East of Rameswaram.  [9.1 Deg N / 81.1 Deg E].  Rainfall may be moderate 2-4cm in the coast between Kodiyakarai in the North and Thoothukudi in the south. Earlier cloud mass was located East of Northern Srilanka and cloud mass passed through Northern Srilanka and spreads over Mannar Bay.

S.Arabian sea circulation "96A" persists .. expected to become a Depression on 31-Oct and move N-W.. http://ow.ly/i/14eEy

Next moderate W.D will reach W.Kashmir on 31-Oct..! 

Going by latest conditions.. COLA's prediction of LOW hitting central Tamilnadu coast may come true on 30-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/14eDW 

@sashank98 >> As per latest model data. #chennai is expected to get heavy rain on 30,31-Oct.

@im_vicky7 >> #chennai will get showers tomorrow , Not heavy ! Rainfall will be heavy on 30-Oct as per the latest available data.

Bay LOW.. IMD-GFS predicts a S-E Tamilnadu coast & N.Srilanka landfall on 31-Oct... http://ow.ly/i/14eAv

Bay LOW, COLA model suggests that the LOW will come near to N-E Srilanka and then move N-W & land over central TN coast http://ow.ly/i/14eB5

RT @reghunadhapuram: Super horrible rain at south Kerala (6:34pm)

6:30pm, Bay Low "93W" is almost stagnant & NO strengthening seen, Only a mild drift to W-S-W during the past 6hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/14ewp

1:30pm, "93W" is almost a depression now.. and expected to track west .. http://ow.ly/i/14dxD

#chennai - 1:45pm, Sharp showers continue over zones South of city at around 40km from city.. Mahabalipuram zone.

BB-10, now as a depression is currently at 10N and 84E, with a core pressure of 1002 mb. 
As the system is just South of the favourable ridge (mentioned earlier), it will track West, and due to adjacent wind shear at 20 knts, it will deepen more, and develop a stronger wind force in the Northern semi circle. This semi circle will have winds upto 30 knts, and Chennai will get gusty NE winds of the same speed from Sunday night  itself.

BB-10 will move into central coastal TN around Monday night, with centre at Nagapattinum/Karaikal. Heavy falls in Puddukotai and Thanjavur districts. But, rainfall will be increasing throughout the TN regions from Sunday evening, with heavier falls in the Northern coastal regions.
After crossing land, the system weakens.

See Chart and details in vagaries

"93W" - now a cyclone alert is issued

JTWC has issued a Cyclone formation alert for "93W".
11:30am, Latest satellite pic of "93W"...

JTWC warning at 9am IST
----------------------------------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 86.1E TO 8.8N 80.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
84.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 
86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A 
CLOUD-COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280007Z SSMIS 
IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALED 25-30 
KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH WEAKER (10-15 KNOT) 
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS  
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEVELOPS 
THIS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING 
ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.

NOGAPS model suggestion
-----------------------------------------------------
NOGAPS model suggests that "93W" will develop as a Depression and cross into Central,S-E Tamilnadu coast touching N.Srilanka on 30-Oct.

Showers seen along Central Tamilnadu coast and even into N.Tamilnadu coast.
11:30am, Sharp showers seen over S,S-E of Chennai city.

"93W" and "96A" - update

7:30am, "93W" is showing good signs of strengthening.
From Yesterday evening the system is maintaining a core.
Crawled W-S-W in last 6 hrs.
Pressure is at 1004mb.
Showers has started along Central Tamilnadu coast.
Now, Showers seen along Mahabalipuram coast as well near Chennai.
Just 15 min back even Chennai had a drizzle !

Meanwhile S-E Arabian sea LOW is also marked for tracking.
Marked as "96A"

28 Oct 2012 cloud mass

This is the latest cloud imagery.  Cloud have entered Coramandal coast [i.e between Kodiyakarai and Cuddalore] It will batter the coast.  The other cloud mass is at about 550km east of this coast.  As the 200hPa ridge is just above 13 Deg N latitude it can be presumed that cloud mass will move due WEST only and hit this coast