Weather Talk

By Mark Vogan

NATURAL VARIABILITY TO BLAME FOR EXTREME WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD!

I blame the extremes we have seen across the world as NATURAL VARIABILITY and the the stage the ocean and atmosphere's current cycle in in.... Have a warm and cold ocean at the same time and you drive weather weather... Like two widely contrasting air masses produce supercell thunderstorms and when you have a very warm, moist lower atmosphere and a very cold air mass aloft, that as well as other things provide the high octane fuel to power hurricanes.. So have a warm Atlantic and a rapidly cooling Equatorial Pacific, surely that will create feedback? Also, we just saw one of the stongest El Nino's on record right? Drought in many areas which commenced all the way back to winter, so doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that those drought areas may in fact see a warm summer. Drought and a powerful El Nino doesn't mix well and sure enough we have seen tremendous heat in Russia, my argument is this.... is this the only time in "earth's" history that this has happened?

Indeed, my reasoning for the Pakistan and Chinese floods is simple... have that much heat to the west in the perfect place, this will have to reajust the atmosphere surrounding.. to the east and south is of course the region home to one of the greatest seasonal weather shift on earth, the monsoon, when does all the heat occur over Russia? The heart of the monsoon season, drive the atmosphere's turbo of fuel (jet stream) down over the monsoon region and bingo, you've got added fuel to an alrready charged atmosphere...

The the meantime, there are places seeing cold, in fact South America has seen one of it's coldest winter's in decades so let's not get too easily laid astray by the hype of the media. REMEMBER, OUR "REAL AND TRUE" MEASUREMENTS ONLY DATE BACK TO 1970... I believe a heck of a lot of "extreme weather" happened by that, dating way way back thousands of years. Only difference today is we're here, recording and documenting stuff that wasn't before!

Full Blog Here.

Heavy showers forecast for Kerala & Karnataka coast from 15-Aug evening to 19-Aug... http://ow.ly/i/3cAp

4:30pm, Heavy & widespread showers over Madhyapradesh, Jharkand, Orissa, N. Chatisgarh and S. Bihar.... http://ow.ly/i/3cAg

Lesser rainfall in the Wyanad, interior parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru, Why ??.... http://ow.ly/2py9F

World feeling the heat- 2010 is becoming the year of Heat waves ... part 2 ... http://ow.ly/2py9h

Increasing temperatures will take a toll on rice production in Asia: Rogue “Peer Review” Study .. http://ow.ly/2py8A

Lesser rainfall in the Wyanad, interior parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru, Why ??

I attended a lecture given by one of the eminent environmental enthusiasts in Tirunelveli. He is of the view that warming in the upper atmosphere especially between 850 to 700 hPa is responsible for relatively lesser rainfall in the Wyanad, interior parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru. The usual monsoon trough or depression are NOT forming at sea level in Bay of Bengal. 


Leh the elevation of which is 11500ft [approximately 3.5km]receives usually lesser rainfall. A small portion of moist warmed upper air orographic-ally rose and burst into sudden rain over a small area. The intensity of rainfall is such that it triggers immediately mud slides.
[As happened in Ketty, Nilgiri district in Tamilnadu during NEM 2009] This can not be tied to global warming effects, but it is warming of upper air.

The volcanic eruption in Iceland during this Summer 2010 and the tectonic sub surface ocean floor was warmer due to vent in the floor and made Artic ocean warmer. This leads the ice in the Artic melt. The ocean is the culprit. Not the atmosphere.


posted by Kaneyen

UN proposes $459 million aid for flood-ravaged Pakistan ... http://ow.ly/2pxWh

World feeling the heat- 2010 is becoming the year of Heat waves ... part 2

In response to previous post... World Feeling the Heat

What you have reasoned for the prevailing high temperatures in Russia and northern parts of Europe [Azores High and Ridge etc] may be one of the reasons. But as pointed out by one of environmentalist, perhaps, the volcano eruption in Iceland and the subsequent ocean sub surface temperature increase in the near by sea,due to vents in the tectonic floor in Arctic ocean may be another reason for warmer Russia and Europe.
The La Nina conditions in long run will bring colder current in western Pacific too and as a result the NEM may fail. AS our Director pointed out in 1932 the same situation prevailed. The warmer western Pacific [west of 180 W /International Date Time]may cause flooding and land slide in China i.e NE parts from Pakistan to China [whenever SWM is active in Aug]


posted by Kaneyen

Increasing temperatures will take a toll on rice production in Asia: Rogue “Peer Review” Study

Rice yields 'to fall' under global warming, screamed the headlines of the BBC. The breaking story was based on a  “peer reviewed “ study that said that “the production of rice—the world's most important crop for ensuring food security and addressing poverty—will be thwarted as  temperatures increase in rice-growing areas with continued 'climate change'.

The story was broken by BBC’s environmental reporter, Richard Black on 9^th August and picked up by media all over the world. The next day, WUWT, the climate sceptic blog of Anthony Watts and the most popular science blog with over 55 million hits, picked up the story and challenged readers to write their own story. This prompted readers from all over the world to react to the study. Such was the tornado of reactions that Richard Black wrote back to Anthony Watts the very next day to inform that he would formally retract the story.

But the story still needs to be told so that it deters the climate activist brigade from WWF, Greenpeace, Christian Aid, etc from using this discredited study to misinform environmental/NGO activists and the general public using this study as a reference. The study is an insult to the toiling Asian farmers as well as activists working to promote organic agriculture.

It was Somerset Maugham who wrote “truth is in the detail”. In our new article, we illustrate how catchy catastrophic headlines are invariably misleading, if at all you read the fine print. Most people don’t and accept the headlines on face value. But as you delve deeper, you will find alarmists only stretching truth and the manipulating statistics. The climate alarmists also hide under the shield of “peer review”. This rogue study is an excellent example of the quality standards of “peer review”.

Read More: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2010/08/increasing-temperatures-will-take-toll.html

Chennai - Heading for another 100% showery afternoon!! now 11:42am.. temp is 32.3 C and already we have Sea breeze, so expect early showers.

RT @TalezShin: RT @WiredFeed: Russian Heat and Asian Floods May Be Linked: ... http://bit.ly/drxoQz

Kerala & Karntaka coast are getting ready to receive heavy showers from Today evening till 18-Aug... http://ow.ly/i/3cjG